usd sgd short after s/r retest + Trendline confluenceWe are in a clear bearish market and going down since around 1year
The last weeks we can see a correction in direction of a previous s/r zone which was respected several times before price was able to break it down + extra confluence by a trendline with several touches.
Now again we have 2 scenarios which could happen here.
1) Price respects the s/r zone + the trendline giving us a great opportunity to go short into the bigger picture trend direction
2) Price breaks the trendline + the s/r zone to the upside telling us that the downward trend could come to an end and offer us a chance to go long in a very early stage of this new trend
I personaly prefer the short side cause its always better to go with the bigger picture trend than against it but if market tells us a long is the way to go i will not discuss with him ;-)
Usd-sgd
USD/SGD LONG TERM VIEW for year 2018USD seems to be weak in the upcoming year.
To new traders looking at which currency to deposit into your broker, seems like SGD is good.
So long as 1.36 holds, It should go down lower.
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USD/SGD 1D Chart: Long term crossroadsUSD/SGD is one of the slow moving pairs, whose review needs to be done by looking at the longer term. In general the daily chart reveals that the pair has been declining for a very long period of time. However, recently the pair encountered a support level, which might mark a change.
A channel up pattern of the same size as the previously active channel down pattern has been revealed. Although, whether the previous patterns resistance does not held still needs to be seen.
Meanwhile, in the short term traders should watch the two junior patterns, which can be seen on the chart,
USD/SGD 1H Chart: Bearish patterns dominateUSD/SGD is being dominated by several channels, the most important of which in the short term are three.
The US Dollar bounced off the upper boundaries of the two most senior channels on October 27 and subsequently began trading lower. Its bottom boundary was tested a month later near the 1.3440 mark. The pair has since recovered some of its lost positions and thus tested the weekly PP two times.
It is expected that the most junior channel could be respected during the following two trading sessions until the psychological 1.35 mark is reached. However, technical indicators suggest that the rate might trade lower within next week. A possible downside target could be the 1.34 area where the bottom boundary of a five-month channel is located.
USD/SGD 1H Chart: US Dollar about to breach triangleUSD/SGD has been trading in a channel up since late August. This formation began when the rate reached a 2017 low at 1.3357 on September 8; the US Dollar has since moved up to the 1.36 mark.
Another notable pattern that can be distinguished is a descending triangle. During its last wave down from the channel, the US Dollar was diminishing its trading range, but at the same time it failed to move below the 1.3580 mark, thus creating this aforementioned triangle.
Technical indicators are in favour of a short-term recovery which is likely to hinder near a resistance cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 1.3620. In case this area is breached, the rate might push for the 1.3731 mark.
Conversely, a failure to do so might strand the rate in a narrow trading range slightly above the 1.3580 mark. The Greenback should eventually break out to the downside and aim for the lower channel boundary near 1.35.
USDSGD long for month of NovemberUSDSGD broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with October's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin.
My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0.
Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target.
These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure.
* End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
USD/SGD 4H Chart: Set to GainThe US Dollar recently broke a massive scale descending channel pattern against the Singapore Dollar. The breaking of the massive scale pattern occurred in a channel up pattern, which is likely the first move in the revelation of a new massive pattern.
Meanwhile, the currency exchange rate has made a rebound and revealed an ascending channel pattern in the borders of the medium scale pattern. Moreover, most recently the pair made a rebound in the junior pattern.
Due to that reason it is expected that in the short term the currency exchange rate will reach the resistance of the weekly PP at the 1.3653 level.
USD/SGD 1H Chart: US Dollar respects wedgeThe US Dollar was trading in two patterns simultaneously, namely, a channel down valid since early October and a week-long ascending wedge. As apparent on the chart, the latter prevailed when the rate breached the upper channel boundary early on Friday.
In general, ascending wedge is a bearish pattern that should eventually push the rate lower. Thus, it is likely that the US Dollar reaches the weekly R1 and the 23.6% Fibo at 1.3610, reverses to the south and breaches the junior pattern near the 1.3570 mark.
The pair still faces the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the 38.2% Fibo and the weekly PP along the way—a support area that is located near the aforementioned line.
In case of a breakout, the Greenback should initiate a new down, thus requiring to adjust to the upside the previously-drawn channel lines.
USD/SGD in a descending channel until NovemberAlthough the US Dollar recently rebounded against the Singapore Dollar, the currency pair is still set to decline in the long term. The reason for that is the fact that the pair is still trading simultaneously in two descending channel patterns.
The most junior pattern shown on the chart was discovered only recently, and it is now providing the opportunity to forecast approximate path of the currency pair in the near future. Until the end of October to be precise.
Meanwhile, the pair is also descending in a dominant pattern, which is aimed at the support line of a dominant channel up pattern, which is located in the zone from 1.3450 to 1.3500.
Time for USDSGD 1.49~1.55Key neckline breakout.
The low of wave 4 is probably seen by now, and will not move much lower. (previously 1.28 was still possible)
Q3 exports was down a massive 4.9%.
Trump presidency that will render the current Transpafic Partnership (TPP) under discussion obsolete.
Increasing competition from regional ports (such as iskandar malaysia), and China's Huge 'One Belt, One Road' initiative on increasing infrastructure investment
Years ahead Singapore will be in for the best of globalization, while other countries are increasingly de-globalizing. (As seen in the Philippines, Brexit and US election this year, including EU election in 2017) The 'open' policy will be worst off.
There's simply no way Singapore could impose levies and taxes, since it does not produce on its own and is unsustainable without foreign imports.
Regionally, ASEAN as a whole is dead. Malaysia, Brunei, and Philippines are moving increasingly closer to China. As a whole there is not really any leverage in the South China Sea at all.
The prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong have pretty much left all his basket of eggs with the US and have proved to be disastrous so far.
China will have the last laugh regionally.
Fed policy may drive the Dollar @1.41588With the next fed policy coming along, it seems as if the Dollar will gain momentum once again particularly with this pair as investors may find the USD attractive after the next meetings announcements.
The Histogram shows bulls rebuilding strength is it breaks out of the R/Trend very soon.
As for the chart, a HS Pattern upon completion with the daily trend AND Aug Resistance acting as consolidation. If the price manages to break beyond these points then I am guessing that we're going to be up for a hell of a ride towards October highs @1.43587 (201 pips) to then briefly correct near November highs then continue its surge and even push further than October highs.
Stop Loss centered within Left Shoulder which is also below short term support @1.40929 (66 pips)
This was made through research and insights gathered.
Let me know what anyone thinks, I believe we're really onto something here!
Regards