USD-TRY
Market News and Charts for August 12, 2019USD/TRY
The pair was seen trading at the tip of the “Falling Wedge” pattern and was expected to continue going down in the following days. The 2016 failed Turkish coup attempt started the end of the relationship between the United States and Turkey. The coup was led by U.S.-based preacher Fethullah Gulen within the Turkish military. Three (3) years after the failed coup, Turkey had its first delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which the U.S. allies said will compromise the defense sharing agreement of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Alliance. The second batch of delivery was expected to be finish this August. Aside from this, Turkey is mulling to purchase Russian SU-35 fighter jets after the U.S. expelled Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in response to its acquisition of Russia’s S-400. However, the Turkey-U.S. relationship might enter into a new low after Turkey loaned $1 billion from China.
USDTRY I am mainly equity guy, but from time to time a do trade FX, and there I have my favourites such TRY, NZD, AUD.
Right now, my position is closed with +S/L, but I will take a closer look today to find the entrance for a new one. For me, MA200 remains strong resistance area , and this new trade will most likely have a T/P near Fibonacci 0.5 lvl . I will wait to RSI to touch his 40 lvl one more time and to price to get closer to MA200
USDTRY | Textbook SellSuch a nice sell 4-8 hours ago. Missed it unfortunately but you can still get in, it is a bit more risky though.
You also get paid overnight swap for short positions on most brokers.
USDTRY updateThe technical rule set I've set up hasn't triggered a long call just yet but, if the USD can close above the trend line at ~5.715 it will.
With the CBRT announcing it's rate decision in two days this could be the start of a substantial move up given the heightened political tensions between Turkey and the EU over drilling in Cyprus and looming US sanctions for their S-400 purchase.
Downside risks would be a hawkish surprise from the CBRT on Thursday with a dovish surprise from the Fed following a week later.
#USDTRYProtections and specified resistances;
In the event of failure of each of the yellow areas, a pink range can be advanced;
Time limit is specified;
The price is within the channel and the pattern;
USDTRY Target reached and much more even :)A textbook trade the previous analysis on usdtry. Showing how easy trading can be sometimes if we are willing to wait for a good setup.
As we can see on the left, it respects that big bull flag that i drew a week ago. So we could be closing in on a temp low on the lower time frame. My game plan now is, waiting for a potential inverse H&S with the low in that green support. So waiting for things to play out first and then making an attempt if things look good.
Previous analysis:
USD/TRY analysis 31.05.2019USD/TRY harmonic bullish gartley pattern. Targets are shown on the chart. (short term idea)
USDTRY potential H&SUptrend on the right broke and the one on the left as well. It is around the breakout zone now which can be a resistance level and there is a chance to see an H&S getting completed here. Since the right shoulder got high, it needs to drop fast to become reliable. So i good risk reward here which i am going to give a try with a small size here and will make it normal when the neckline breaks.
Previous analysis:
USD/TRY analysis 21.05.2019USD/TRY symmetrical triangle. IF can't hold the 5.98-6.04 area, we'll go back to 5.82-5.85 area.
USDTRY: Bullish on symmetrical Targets.The pair is on a strong uptrend on 1D (RSI = 58.592, MACD = 0.072, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) forming the right side of the 1W cup formation. It appears that the uptrend targets the Lower Highs of the previous downtrend in the form of Resistance Levels. Based on this we are long with 6.38740 our next TP and 6.64497 the extension.
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USD/TRY 3-4 weeks to go for action!After election weekly candles going in sync. If this is continue, we will see action in 3-4 weeks.
USDTRY Sell SignalPattern: 1W Channel Up.
Signal: Bearish once the price makes a Higher High.
Target: Around -10% from where the Higher High is made.
*If 6.22990 breaks, close and wait for a new (quite possibly more aggressive) bullish pattern to trade.
USDTRY 1H sell the breakdown USDTRY 1H getting ready to breakdown soon. Look for sells on the breakdown from this structure.
USDTRY 1:4 Risk Reward SHORT (Fundamentals)If you get involved in provocative acts, saying ‘foreign currencies will strengthen, this will happen, that will happen’, you will pay a very heavy price - Erdogan
TRY
Fundamental Quant Score +60
USD
Fundamental Quant Score -4
Investors seek reforms, fear populism
Lira initially weakened 2.5 percent
Shares rise 1 percent (Updates lira, adds London swap rates, dollar bonds)
$ USD / TRY $ 25.03.20195.64 is critical. In daily closing, this figure may cause us to see 5.53 Continue to follow today
Impulsive move in play for USDTRY Here we are witnessing a very interesting move taking place for the Turkish financial system. After finishing a clear corrective ABC sequence since the August highs we are now in the early stages of an impulsive move to finish the more broader 5th wave in a very large sequence.
For those tracking the updates in USDTRY in the previous charts (see attached: "Starting 5th wave looks imminent..") this is the move we have been waiting for over the last few months. Finally it is here, time to stick the knife in and cause maximum pain for Turkey.
The fact that we are rallying in an impulsive manner means we are going to eventually crack 6 + and possibly even 7.80
Continuing to watch with interest, all positions are fully loaded here as has been the case for months. Time to sit on our hands and enjoy the moves.
Thanks
USDTRY Double bottom, Part 3In my previous analysis i showed a possible flag pattern could be formed against the resistance of the double bottom neckline. So far that is exactly what happend. On the right we can see the shape of a triangle. All triangles can breakout both ways, but since this one is an ascending which is being formed against a resistance zone , it is more likely to see it break upwards. If that happens, we should see an acceleration towards 5.6/5.7, otherwise there will be a chance for a false breakout.
If the triangle breaks down, we could see a test of the 5.4 or even to 5.34 if the first one breaks. So far the double bottom pattern is playing out as it should. The start was a bit slow, but we got a small acceleration the past 2 weeks. So the pattern looks legit so far. Target of the pattern is at the yellow circle.
Previous analysis:
