GBP/USD - Triangle Breakout (23.05.2025)The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.3502
2nd Resistance – 1.3534
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USD (US Dollar)
USD/CAD - Triangle Breakout (23.05.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3792
2nd Support – 1.3760
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HelenP. I Euro will drop from resistance zone to $1.1260 pointsHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. After an extended period of consolidation, the price remained trapped inside a narrow range, testing both the upper and lower boundaries multiple times without any decisive breakout. This indecision created a strong horizontal resistance around the 1.1355 - 1.1370 zone, which continues to act as a key obstacle for bulls. Eventually, the price declined sharply and found temporary support along the upward trend line. This area had already proven its significance through multiple touches and rebounds, serving as a strong dynamic support. After touching the trend line once again, buyers stepped in, leading to a moderate recovery in price action. Currently, EURUSD is pushing back toward the resistance zone. However, I don’t see this upward momentum sustaining for long. The previous failures at this level and the weak follow-through from bulls suggest exhaustion. I believe that once price enters the resistance zone, it will face renewed selling pressure. My expectation is a rejection from this area and a move lower, potentially breaking below the previous local lows. That’s why I set my goal at 1.1260 points, a logical target based on the previous swing support and current bearish setup forming just under a key resistance level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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USD/JPY - H1 - Channel Breakout (17.05.2025) The Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 142.40
2nd Support – 140.17
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IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP?GBPUSD OUTLOOK – IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP?
📊 Macro Overview:
The USD continues to soften slightly as markets begin pricing in a potential rate cut by the Fed later in Q3. Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) is holding firm, supported by stronger-than-expected UK macroeconomic data—particularly retail sales and inflation figures.
However, UK fiscal concerns remain a headwind, and GBPUSD is highly sensitive to upcoming U.S. data—especially Core PCE and employment figures this week.
📉 Technical Analysis:
On the 1H chart, GBPUSD is moving within a broad ascending channel and is now approaching the upper resistance trendline at 1.3555 – a key zone that could trigger short-term profit-taking.
EMAs 13 and 34 are still in bullish alignment, supporting ongoing momentum.
Despite the bullish setup, current candle structure suggests a potential pullback to the 1.3448 support zone before a continuation higher—if buyers regain control.
🔑 Key Price Levels:
Resistance Zones:
🔸 1.3555 – Channel top resistance
🔸 1.3586 – Extended resistance zone
Support Zones:
🔹 1.3448 – Technical and Fibo confluence
🔹 1.3398 – Major structure support in case of breakdown
🛠️ Trade Scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: BUY on retracement
Entry: 1.3448 (watch for bullish confirmation on H1)
Stop Loss: 1.3394
Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3555 → 1.3585
✅ Scenario 2: SELL scalp from resistance
Entry: 1.3555
Stop Loss: 1.3588
Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3460
🧠 Final Thoughts:
GBPUSD remains bullish in structure but is testing key resistance levels. A clean pullback to the 1.3448 region may provide a strong buying opportunity if confirmed by price action. If this level breaks, bearish divergence could kick in and push the pair back to deeper support zones. Stay alert for high-impact economic releases and trade with solid risk management!
USDJPY Channel Down rejection aiming for the 2024 Support.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 10 2025 High and right now is on its latest Bearish Leg, an outcome of the rejection near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This has also been confirmed by the 1D MACD Bearish Cross and the next technical Support is on 139.600. By the time it gets tested, the price may also make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Our short-term Target is 139.600.
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BTCUSDT – Hitting resistance, is selling pressure returning?Bitcoin is showing signs of losing momentum after touching the resistance zone around 111,669. On the H4 timeframe, the previous bullish structure has stalled with a series of red candles and a clear pullback, bringing price back to test the EMA 34 zone.
In terms of news, although the market remains excited due to expectations surrounding a Bitcoin spot ETF, many large investors are starting to take profits after the recent sharp rally. This is causing selling pressure to slightly outweigh buying in the short term.
The most likely scenario now is that BTC could make a mild upward move to retest the 111,600 area – but if it fails to break above, a reversal back toward the support zone at 105,800 is highly probable. This area aligns with the EMA 89 and a previous accumulation zone.
Current strategy: don’t get caught in a false breakout. Instead, watch the 111,600 area and wait for a clear signal. If a reversal candlestick pattern appears, short-term sell entries may be considered with a target near the lower support.
USDCAD: 1D Death Cross signals more selling.USDCAD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.307, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 41.498) as it is having one of the strongest red 1D candles of 2025, which is dominated by a Channel Down pattern. The market formed today a 1D Death Cross and since the new bearish wave started on a 1D MA200 rejection, we expect the selling to continue despite the oversold technical condition. Short and aim for a new -3.80% decline TP = 1.35000.
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BTC/USD IS A STRATEGIC CORRECTION OR A NEW RALLY AHEAD?BTC/USD 24 MAY – IS A STRATEGIC CORRECTION OR A NEW RALLY AHEAD?
🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Federal Reserve Outlook: Recent statements from Fed officials remain hawkish, signaling that interest rate cuts may not arrive soon. Inflation data remains sticky, adding pressure on risk-on assets like crypto in the short term.
Market Sentiment: Investors are cautious, with capital flowing back into safer assets amid global uncertainty. However, long-term sentiment on BTC remains strong, supported by fundamentals.
On-Chain Metrics: Wallet activity and hash rate growth continue to reflect strong underlying demand. This suggests accumulation despite short-term price pressure.
📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE (H1 CHART)
BTC/USD is currently correcting after reaching the 111,947 resistance area. Price bounced from the 106,831 support zone and is now approaching the mid-range levels again.
Chart Formation: A possible "bull trap" pattern is forming. Price may retest the 110,000 – 111,947 supply zone before deciding the next move.
EMA Signals: Short-term EMAs have crossed downward on the H1 timeframe, indicating a weakening bullish momentum.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY
🔻 SCALP SELL ZONE:
Entry: 111,800 – 111,950
Stop Loss: 112,200
Targets: 110,000 → 108,500 → 106,800 → 102,567
🔺 BUY ZONE (PULLBACK SUPPORT):
Entry: 106,800 – 106,600
Stop Loss: 106,200
Targets: 107,800 → 109,000 → 110,000
🔍 TECHNICAL KEY LEVELS
Resistance Zone: 111,947 – 112,000
Support Zone: 106,831 → 106,600 → 102,567
FIBO Key Levels: 0.5 – 109,393 | 0.382 – 108,763
⚠️ STRATEGY OUTLOOK
If BTC breaks above 112,000 with strong volume, expect a bullish continuation toward 114,000+ levels.
However, if price fails to hold above 110,000 and drops below 106,800, a deeper correction to 102,500 may follow.
📌 CONCLUSION
"BTC is at a decision point, trading between macro hawkish pressure and technical liquidity zones. Stay flexible and wait for confirmation before committing heavily."
Watch the US Jobless Claims data tonight for volatility triggers.
Avoid emotional trades. Use strict risk management.
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Euro will start to grow from support and then leave pennantHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Previously, price was moving confidently inside an upward channel, forming steady higher highs and higher lows. After a clear breakout from that structure, the price started consolidating inside a new pattern, an upward pennant. This formation usually appears as a continuation structure, where the market builds pressure before a new impulse. Currently, the price is trading near the middle of the pennant, after rolling down from the resistance line and rebounding up from the support area. The structure is compressing, and a retest of the support line near 1.1155 may occur before a breakout happens. Given the confluence of the pennant structure, the strong support area, and the previous bullish momentum, I expect the Euro to rebound again from the lower trend line and initiate an upward breakout. That’s why I set my TP 1 at the 1.1500 level, a logical target aligned with the upper boundary of the pattern and next key resistance. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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US10Y Technical Breakdown – Post-Moody’s DowngradeMoody’s has downgraded the US credit rating for the first time since 2011, citing rising debt levels and long-term fiscal challenges.
This move sends a clear warning signal about America’s fiscal path and adds fresh uncertainty to markets already navigating interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
Focus on the US 10-Year Treasury Yield as the market’s pulse on sovereign risk, inflation expectations, and future borrowing costs. Tracking its medium-term trend will provide crucial clues on market sentiment and risk appetite.
Medium-Term Market Analysis
(6-12 Months)
1. Structural Fiscal Risks
This downgrade highlights growing concerns over the US debt trajectory and political gridlock around spending and debt ceilings.
It’s less about an immediate crisis, more about long-term sustainability.
2. Rising Yields and Market Volatility
The 10-year Treasury yield could move higher, beyond 4.60% we could see rates possibly testing previous resistance of 4.80% (Jan 2025) or 5.00% (Oct 2023).
Higher yields mean increased borrowing costs, which can pressure interest-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate and add volatility to equities.
3. Federal Reserve’s Tough Balancing Act
With bond yields edging up, the Fed faces a dilemma: delaying cuts further could risk inflation climbing higher.
However, this downgrade raises the likelihood that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer than many investors expect.
4. Dollar and Capital Flow Shifts
While a credit downgrade may initially pressure the US dollar, its safe-haven status remains strong.
Global capital could increasingly look to alternatives like emerging markets or gold, leading to shifts in international financial flows.
Perspective
While Moody’s downgrade is a serious signal, it’s important to consider:
1) Political Leverage: Sometimes, rating agencies’ decisions can influence political negotiations. This downgrade may add pressure on US lawmakers to reach fiscal compromises. It’s a tool, not necessarily a verdict.
2) US Dollar & Debt Demand Resilience: Despite concerns, US Treasury securities remain the world’s primary safe asset, with global demand still robust. This could temper yield spikes and limit fallout.
Some could view the downgrade as “priced in” to a degree, given ongoing debt ceiling battles and past political brinkmanship.
If true, markets may react less dramatically than feared.
Watch
US 10-Year Yield: Key indicator to watch for shifts in risk sentiment and inflation expectations.
Equities: Prepare for increased volatility; consider defensive sectors and value plays.
Credit Markets: Monitor for widening spreads as risk aversion grows.
Policy Signals: Fed communications and US political developments will be critical catalysts.
This Moody’s downgrade isn’t just a headline, it’s a medium-term signal to recalibrate risk and position for a more uncertain fiscal backdrop.
USD/JPY Rebounds from Support — Bulls Back in Play?USD/JPY looks like it’s found its feet. After tagging support near the April VPOC (142.71) and 6 May low (142.36), Thursday’s session printed the first bullish candle in over a week — a spinning top just above key support.
The daily RSI (2) bounced from its most oversold reading in a month, and the 1-hour chart shows bullish divergence on the RSI (14), now comfortably above 50.
Price has lifted from the monthly S2 and is circling S1. If USD/JPY can push through yesterday’s high (144.40), I’m looking toward 145, 145.86 and potentially the 146 handle, which aligns with the monthly pivot at 146.38.
** Please note that Japan's CPI data drops in ~25 mins **
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 143.84
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 142.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 145.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 145.18
1st Support: 142.56
1st Resistance: 146.70
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD: MACD Cross confirms more upsideGBPUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.696, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 36.278) as it's been inside a Channel Up since the start of the year (January 13th 2025 low). At the moment the 1D MA50 is holding and provides the short term support. The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, validating the new bullish wave. We are bullish, aiming for another +3.63% HH rise (TP = 1.3600).
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Bullish momentum to extend?The Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced off the pivot which has been identiifed as a pullback support and xcould rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,287.49
1st Support: 3,211.03
1st Resistance: 3,413.48
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD: Weekly overviewThe indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
These points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
After reacting to the following zones, you can enter the trade. Place the stop loss slightly above/below the zone to which the reaction was shown. The profit point is the next zone.
The drawn channels and their medians can also be considered as moving support and resistance. I usually use them as target points.
* I don't trade the white zone (1.32190), the channel borders and median are so close to it and any breaks below it does not necessarily mean a potential continue in the break direction.
My most important zone is the blue one (1.34291). I'm more ready to take short from it. however, the long option is possible if confirmed.
This analysis is valid until the end of the week.
**************************************
Important news that could change the direction of the trade:
Wednesday: Britain CPI
BTCUSDT – Mild Pullback, Support Holds FirmBTCUSDT remains in a clear uptrend with a structure of higher highs and higher lows, after breaking out of a prolonged consolidation pattern since early May.
The price has surged from the 106,000 resistance zone and approached the technical target around 112,000 – an area that is currently triggering a slight pullback.
At the moment, the support zone around 106,700–107,800 aligns with a demand area and the EMA34, likely serving as a springboard for the next upward move.
If BTC continues to consolidate around this zone without breaking below 106,700, the 112,000 level could be breached, paving the way for a move toward higher targets.
Bearish reversal for the Swissie?The price is rising towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support, which is also an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.8334
1st Support: 0.8214
1st Resistance: 0.8410
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Cable (GBP/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3395
1st Support: 1.3317
1st Resistance: 1.3565
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1263
1st Support: 1.1166
1st Resistance: 1.1423
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Follow Iran news to take advantage of USDCAD:Dear Traders,
follow Iran news! Really do that! Again, Trump negotiations could change everything!
How? It's all about oil! any war in the Middle east could rise the oil prices and Loonie will pump!
So, any bad news about the US-Iran negotiations, I'll take long trades with cautions. and I'll be ready to take short from any possible Zones.
If everything goes normal, I'm ready to take Long/Short after confirmation from the Green and the Blue zones.
Expectations: (Just for normal situations, A war in middle east I'll short the pair)
The Green zone is not suitable for short trades.
The White zone is not suitable for any trades.
After all, 71Billion $ for Canda economy is considerable. Persian Gulf is one of the most important energy hubs of the world.
Bullish bounce for the Gold?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,260.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,213.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,344.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.