[XAU/USD & DXY] – Long-Term Outlook📌 – Long-Term Outlook: Is Gold Entering a New Bull Cycle as USD Weakens?
📊 Technical Analysis – Gold & DXY
The divergence between Gold and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has become increasingly clear:
🔹 Gold (XAU/USD):
Price has broken the previous high at 3,190 and is now testing 3,219 – a fresh all-time high on the daily chart.
The MA13, MA34, and MA200 are showing a perfect “bullish fan” formation, indicating a sustainable uptrend rather than a short-term pump.
The key support zone around 3,164 – 3,118 remains critical for any healthy pullback.
🔻 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
Price has decisively broken below the psychological 100.55 support and is now hovering near 99.78.
If DXY fails to hold above 99.7, the next downside target could be 97.5 in the coming quarter.
The technical structure is clearly bearish, confirming USD weakness across the board.
→ This negative correlation aligns with macro expectations: a weaker dollar is fueling gold’s bullish momentum.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis – Macro Drivers
US PPI & CPI both come in lower than expected:
Inflation is showing clear signs of cooling.
Markets are now pricing in a possible rate cut as early as June.
Shift in Fed tone – from hawkish to neutral:
While not officially declared, recent Fed statements have been more dovish, supporting risk assets and weakening the dollar.
Strong safe-haven demand remains:
Geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty continue to push capital into gold, especially as USD enters a weakening phase.
🧭 Long-Term Perspective
Gold is potentially entering a new bull cycle. With consecutive ATH breakouts and favorable macro conditions (falling inflation, expected rate cuts, USD weakness), gold could push to even higher levels into Q2 and Q3.
The USD faces downside pressure in the coming months, especially if the Fed signals a firm pivot toward easing.
⚠️ Strategy Caution
Short-term corrections may occur, especially after such a sharp rise.
However, any pullbacks into key support zones could present strategic long opportunities for longer-term investors.
💬 What’s Your Take?
Is this the beginning of a major bull cycle in gold, or do you expect deeper pullbacks before continuation?
Drop your analysis and charts below! 👇👇👇
