Rand Pressured but Potential Recovery on the HorizonThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to 97.80 following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new trade tariffs, including a 35% levy on Canadian imports set to begin August 1, and additional blanket duties on several other nations. This added to bullish dollar sentiment already supported by yesterday’s labour market data showing a seven-week low in U.S. unemployment claims.
With no immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the greenback remains the currency of choice for risk-off flows. This renewed strength is placing emerging market currencies under strain, particularly the South African rand.
USD/ZAR climbed sharply, touching the 17.80 handle as investors reacted to the potential for South Africa to be included in the next wave of U.S. tariffs, possibly as high as 40%. However, local fundamentals suggest a possible reversal.
Recent South African manufacturing data beat expectations, and diplomatic engagements between President Cyril Ramaphosa and U.S. officials are providing a counterweight to the tariff headlines.
Technical View (USD/ZAR):
The currency pair is currently range-bound in a sideways channel. A breakout above resistance at 18.05 would likely extend dollar gains, while a move below 17.60 could open the door to a short-term rand recovery. Traders should be cautious and watch for clear directional confirmation.
