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USD (US Dollar)

USDCHF to turnaround?USDCHF - 24h expiry Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders has formed. Bespoke support is located at 0.8780. We look to buy dips. We look to Buy at 0.8780 (stop at 0.8756) Our profit targets will be 0.8845 and 0.8860 Resistance: 0.8803 / 0.8825 / 0.8850 Support: 0.8780 / 0.8750 / 0.8727 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
1
Bitcoin - Bitcoin finally reached 6 digits!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. risk ON sntiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone. After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 90 thousand dollars. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Last week, Donald Trump appointed Paul Atkins as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a decision that sparked mixed reactions. Hester Peirce, popularly known as the “Crypto Mom,” expressed her strong support for Atkins to replace the current SEC chairman, Gary Gensler. She stated, “Based on my previous experience working with him in this organization, I can’t imagine a better candidate for this position.” Meanwhile, Caroline Crenshaw, a current member of the SEC, has been nominated for another term and now awaits Senate confirmation. If approved, she will serve on the commission until 2029. During her tenure, Crenshaw has taken a notably strict stance on cryptocurrencies, earning a reputation for being even tougher than Gary Gensler. One key point of contention is her opposition to approving Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In a letter dated January 2024, she cited concerns such as investor protection and market manipulation as reasons for her dissent. These views have led some to label her as the primary adversary of the crypto industry. Bitcoin Spot ETFs now hold over one million bitcoins, surpassing the holdings of Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Within less than a year, these funds have become the largest bitcoin holders in the world. Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary, told Bloomberg that the idea of establishing strategic bitcoin reserves is “ridiculous.” However, he welcomed efforts to regulate the crypto space and foster financial innovation. Summers also expressed skepticism about reducing government spending through the Productivity Department, calling it a challenging path. The performance and weekly and annual returns of major Layer 1 cryptocurrencies are shown in the accompanying chart. Meanwhile, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, appeared in a Paris court to face charges of facilitating illegal activities through his messaging app. Durov, who was temporarily detained on August 24, was released after posting a $6 million bail but has been barred from leaving France until March 2025. French prosecutors have accused him of running a platform that aids illicit activities. If convicted, Durov could face up to 10 years in prison and a fine of €500,000. This case has raised concerns about privacy-focused technologies in the Web3 space. At the same time, the number of cryptocurrency wallets with non-zero balances has reached 400 million. Michael Saylor, the CEO of Microstrategy, recently shared his proposed bitcoin purchasing strategy with crypto enthusiasts. He reiterated that bitcoin should be considered a long-term asset and advocated for using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for sustainable growth. Saylor, one of bitcoin’s most prominent supporters, stated that for the past four years, he has consistently advised investors to “buy bitcoin and never sell.” He emphasized that bitcoin should be held as a long-term capital asset rather than a short-term profit tool. Saylor recommended that investors enter the market every three months using funds they do not need and hold the investment for at least ten years. He also stressed that investors should not worry about short-term volatility and should avoid stress by adhering to this strategy. The trading volume of spot cryptocurrencies reached $2.7 trillion last month, marking the highest level since May 2021. A new survey revealed that over 80% of cryptocurrency holders admitted that their investment decisions were influenced by emotions like Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). The survey, which included 1,248 participants, showed that 84% invested due to FOMO and 81% due to FUD. Kraken Exchange commented that the findings suggest many investors trade based on emotions and fears rather than logical strategies. These emotions often stem from misunderstandings or mistrust about the future of specific cryptocurrencies. The survey also revealed that FOMO drives investors to chase rising prices, while only 17% focus on buying opportunities during price drops. Interestingly, 63% of cryptocurrency holders acknowledged
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD Crucial test on the 4H MA200. Bullish if broken.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone since the September 30 High, which is technically the Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Down pattern, which we saw on our previous analysis. Having found support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the pair appears to be attempting another test on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected the last Lower High (November 05) and has been intact since October 01, making it practically the basic long-term Resistance. As a result, if the 4H MA200 breaks, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone should follow too, which will cause a technical medium-term break-out. Our Target is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08765. You may use the Higher Lows trend-line as an additional tool to determine if the break-out will be successful as last time (November 05) the failed to hold and caused the new Bearish Low of the Megaphone. Similar analogy with the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges: Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
1
Sell GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2668 2nd Support – 1.2620 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
Bullish rise?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 30.06 1st Support: 27.99 1st Resistance: 32.49 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAGUSDLong
by ICmarkets
1
Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support. Pivot: 2,666.69 1st Support: 2,529.22 1st Support: 2,529.22 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
1
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which is an overlap resistance and drop from this level to the pullback support. Pivot: 151.88 1st Support: 147.20 1st Resistance: 154.70 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is reacting off the pivot which and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.8727 1st Support: 0.8616 1st Resistance: 0.8920 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Potential bullish rise?The Cable (GBP/USD) has reacted off the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.2686 1st Support: 1.2529 1st Resistance: 1.2907 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support level. Pivot: 1.0603 1st Support: 1.0332 1st Resistance: 1.0780 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
The Aussie has a strong bearish momentum, could it drop further?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6421 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6455 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Take profit: 0.6372 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Sell USD/JPY Channel BreakoutThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. OANDA:USDJPY Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 148.82 2nd Support – 148.18 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
5
Bearish drop?USD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.8801 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.8881 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 0.8698 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0588 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retraecment. Stop loss: 1.0629 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.0530 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
EURUSD possible meltdownEURUSD has been moving bearish for a while now, and has just recently made it back towards a very deep premium zone. After a massive break of structure on the 4h timeframe, price preceded to retrace and accumuulate lots of internal range liquidity in the form of highs and a trendline as highlighted. We just saw that all that liquidity was taken out after the news events on Friday. Price gave us a shift in market structure on the internal structure after mitigating a supply zone that was left behind during the previous expansion. This now gives us a confirmed opportunity to enter in on the possibly-to- continue bearish move to go and take out the latest weak low.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate