USDZAR Low risk buy signal.The USDZAR pair is trading below both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having formed a Channel Down (blue) since the start of the year. The 1D RSI hit the bottom of its Rectangle, so even though there is some limited downside on the Channel Down before forming a Lower Low, the reward is much higher on the upside.
Assuming a Lower Low at the bottom, we expect another +4.40% rise towards the Lower Highs, thus our Target is at 19.1500.
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USD-ZAR
USDZAR Double confirmation sell signalThe USDZAR pair is trading above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), on a strong consolidation phase as it approaches the end of an 8-month Triangle. Having been rejected last week very close to not only the Triangle's top but also the (dotted) Channel Up top (Lower Highs trend-line), we have a strong short-term sell signal in our hands. Our Target is Support 1 at 18.555.
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USDZAR: Long term Channel Up preparing the final rally.USDZAR is trading around the 1D MA50 on neutral technicals (RSI = 45.374, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 21.007) but on a long term Channel Up for the past 2 years. This current consolidation has been the accumulation period in the two bullish legs prior before the final rally to a Higher High. This is our buy entry and we aim at the top of the Channel (TP = 21.000).
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USDZAR One last High before this 3-month rally is exhausted.The USDZAR pair made a 4-month High last week, extending the 3-month rally since the Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern on July 27. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting, based on the previous Higher High, the price has one last run to make before getting exhausted. Our target is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 20.2500.
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USDZAR sellThis sell could print really nice, price is right now trying breakout to the upside. If it fails to break, we could see it retracing back to around 18.15! My trendline was made with the first two tops that price made, giving the idea that price already tried and failed creating a fake breakout early this month.
Will wait for today's candle closure. If below trendline will open a position with stop loss at 19.15.
Emerging market currencies to outperform G10 in 2023With the global economy showing more resilience and the Fed slowing its pace of tightening, we believe EM currencies can outperform relative to G10 peer currencies this year. Attractive real yields should result in market participants accumulating exposure to developing currencies, while our assumption for contained banking sector stresses should lead to improved risk appetite.
USDZAR Short-term Sell signal and long-term level to watch.The USDZAR pair continues to confirm our break-out trade strategy as by breaking above the previous Resistance Zone we discussed on September 06, while holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, it activated our buy signal and hit the -1.0 Fibonacci target and the 2.0 Fib extension (green dotted line) of the long-term Channel:
We will continue this successful approach, which right now gives a new short-term sell signal targeting roughly -7.00% from the recent top, below the 1D MA50 at the bottom of the Channel Up (green) that started on the April 13 Low. This is around 17.300.
If however the MACD on the 1W time-frame makes a Bearish Cross as on January 17 2022, we will use the 1D MA50 as Resistance and target even lower the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Take profit when the MACD makes a Bullish Cross.
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USDZAR Critical Resistance. Levels to buy and sell.The USDZAR pair broke above its former Resistance Zone since our last analysis on June 29:
The 1.382 Fibonacci extension target was hit and yet another break-out approach turned out to be successful. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since August 17, we will continue to adopt a break-out trading perspective. A 1D candle close above the 17.4400 High, will be a break-out buy signal yet again, targeting the -1.0 Fibonacci extension, which happens to be on the 2.0 Fib of the Channel. As you see, after every High break-out, the pair has always reached (or came close to) the -1.0 Fib ext.
On the other hand, a break below the Channel Up that started after the April 12 Low, will be a sell break-out signal towards the 0.0 Fib level, i.e. the bottom of the long-term Channel.
See how the MACD on the 1W time-frame remains bullish, having a sequence similar to that of June - November 2021.
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USDZAR, The Cup and Handle Pattern CompletedUSD broke above the upper boundary of the cup and handle pattern on the USDZAR chart.
We can long the pair with the target that is equal to the pattern's height.
Stop-loss should be below today's lowest point.
USDZAR Pull-back or break-out buyThe USDZAR pair has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel since June 07 2021, with one break-out to the 1.382 extension. At the moment it is supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break a Lower Highs trend-line. A closing above it should be enough to test the Resistance Zone. Only a break above the 1.0 Fib can justify further buying as a break-out signal to the 1.382 Fib extension again. Until then, it is safer to wait for a pull-back, which is common for these Lower Highs (dashed line) patterns within the Channel. Either above the 0.786 retracement level or near the bottom of the Channel.
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USD/ZAR LongUSD/ZAR pair has been moving bullish over the last few weeks. Looking at the daily time frame. It is now consolidating in a bull flag right in the middle of the channel at resistance after retracing to the 0.618 fib level. With a good breakout of the bull flag resistance should be broken and become support.
I am looking to enter upon the break out and close above BOTH the flag and the 16.1148 resistance level. Doing this would make it highly probable to complete its move to the top of the channel which is the 0.618 fib extension at just over 17.500.
USDZAR Pull-back in Summer but bullish end-of-yearThe USDZAR pair is replicating the previous Cycle of 2016-2019 and right now is at the final Accumulation Phase before the rally to a blow-off top. What the comparison suggests, based also on the 1W RSI (attention the price action is on the 1D time-frame though), is that we may soon see a pull-back towards roughly 15.100 to September and then a strong finish to the year above 17.000.
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$USDZAR Daily - Dollar bulls still have the ball (for now)A chart that many South Africans will be watching with interest. The confirmed break of the inverse H&S in November set up a full target of 17.00. The pair quickly tested 16.30 before consolidating within an asymmetrical triangle. Consolidations are healthy, and will allow USD to gather some steam before next surge higher. However, currently, USDZAR is testing triple support, namely: H&S neckline, bottom triangle as well as 200 SMA. Should these support levels break, and we get a sustained move below 14.90 - this invalids the prior bullish USD patterns. Next support levels will come in at 14.40, 14.10 and 13.40 respectively. On the other hand, a break above 15.40 confirms the asymmetrical triangle targeting 16.30.
USDZARA little late posting this to be honest. However, I think this is still a good move. Double bottom on this timeframe, Mac D losing momentum on the recent pullback. Looking for 50% of the previous high for a retracement target. I'm seeing that ZAR has a stronger interest rates but I want to see if or why the USD will be or is stronger than the ZAR regardless of interest rates. Even though the interest rate are stronger on the ZAR and both countries expect hikes next year, I noticed that the unemployment rate was drastically higher in South Africa. the ZAR is facing a more stringent debt issue than we are (allegedly). If we handle our situation quicker than theirs, I could see our dollar being stronger over time. (Opinionated) check via tradingeconomics for source. Business confidence has remained stagnant with confidence in the US increasing a small amount since last report. With this info here and information sought out earlier, I would think that the overall sentiment in South Africa is low from an economic perspective.
Not Advice!
"It's not about being right more than it is about being smarter than your last trade."
USDZAR | BULLS TIRED?USDZAR | BULLS TIRED?
The bulls looks tired and taking correction in parallel channel.
They can either take support from parallel channel and continue making higher highs
Or the pair can break the channel and touch the recent low and bears take charge from there.
Key point highlighted on charts.