USDZAR: The long term bearish outlook.This pair is on a recurring bearish pattern sequence on the long term 1W chart. This mix includes a parabolic rise, which when it reaches a top, it develops a Channel Down on 1D (RSI = 37.566, Highs/Lows = -0.3871, BBP = -0.4893). This Channel Down is currently targeting 13.27600 and 12.800 in extension.
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USD-ZAR
USDZAR approaching resistance, potential drop! USDZAR is approaching our first resistance at 6.8172 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6.600 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching our resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price should it react off this level.
USDZAR Bullish Wedge, Part 2Sometimes i just get really scared of myself :) Anyway, so far going almost perfect. The entries are already in since the bounce up was so strong this time. I have added a third entry for this game plan, that is if we see a daily close above that red zone, i will add even more to this position if we see something like a bull flag happening.
If this plan works out, i will take profit in 4 parts towards the target, but leaving 25% open with a tight stop below it, just in case this wave up would get extended.
Previous analysis:
USDZAR bullish wedgeThere is possible bullish wedge here. It's not the best one but there are many good characteristics of a wedge. I am going to play it safe and will wait a bit more before i will get in. I want to see it go towards the support line one more time and see it get find some support there. Then i will get in with half a position and make the position complete after the breakout.
USDZAR approaching support, potential bounce! USDZAR is approaching our first support at 13.60 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50%, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback support, Descending channel support) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 13.97 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching our support and we can see a bullish divergence where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
USDZAR approaching resistance, potential drop! USDZAR is approaching our first resistance at 6.8172 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6.6009 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price.
USDZAR approaching support, potential bounce!USDZAR is approaching our first support at 6.6135 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce might occur pushing price up to our major resistance at 6.7134 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6%, 50% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching support and seeing a bullish divergence and we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Downside potentialThe US Dollar has been depreciating against the South African Rand gradually since the beginning of August. This movement has been bounded in a falling wedge.
During this week the pair has been trying to breach the resistance level formed by the weekly R1 at 14.54. Given that the exchange rate is being pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is expected that the rate targets the lower wedge line located circa 13.85 within the following sessions. Technical indicators also support bearish scenario.
If given wedge does not hold, a breakout south might occur. Potential downside target is the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement at 13.58.
USDZAR is approaching resistance, potential drop! USDZAR is approaching our first resistance at 6.8630 (horizontal overlap resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6.6179 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also approaching resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price.
USDZAR approaching support, potential bounce! USDZAR is approaching our first support at 6.7169 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% fibonacci retracement) where a strong bounce might occur pushing price up to its resistance at 6.8762 (horizontal overlap resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
USDZAR approaching resistance, potential drop! USDZAR is approaching our first resistance at 6.8550 (horizontal overlap resistance, 23.6% fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur pushing price down to our major support at 6.7253 (horizontal pullback support, 100%, 61.8% fibonacci extension, 23.6% fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price .
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Upside potential apparentDownside risks has been dominated the USD/ZAR exchange rate since the pair reversed from the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel at 15.47.
During this week the currency pair has been trying to surpass the resistance cluster formed by a combination the weekly and monthly PPs, as well the 55-, 100-, 200-hour SMAs and the Fibonacci 23.60% retracement in the 14.60/14.71 range. Technical indicators for the long term suggest that a breakout of given resistance cluster might happen in the nearest future.
However, this advance might not be immediate, and the pair could decline to the weekly S1 at 14.26 within following trading sessions.
USDZAR Long - The forbidden Fruit Price has presented an opportunity to press the ZAR to 16.50
The 4hr bearish trendline was broken and new support was found to the upside.
I am well aware that the USDZAR can become extremely volatile, hence the tight stop.
Any break below the current trend line and i will be taking profit.
Target hit. Channel Up continuation. New Long.TP = 15.400 hit, quicker than expected, as the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 57.959, MACD = 0.486, B/BP = 1.1840) aggressively moved towards a new Higher High. Equally aggressively it has pulled back (Highs/Lows = 0) to a new Higher Low on our projected curve support. We have already bought this low and our long's TP is 15.88200.
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Bearish in short-termThe South African Rand has been appreciating against the US Dollar for three sessions after the USD/ZAR pair reversed from the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel at 15.65.
As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar has reached the weekly R1 at 15.04. In addition, the pair is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. These two factors allow to think that the pair could aim for the support cluster formed by the weekly and monthly PPs near 14.45.
Meanwhile, technical indicators flash bullish signals in both the short and long terms. This means that some advance northwards may still occur until the upper boundary of given channel
1W Channel Up in progress. Long.USDZAR is trading within a very aggressive 1W Channel Up (RSI = 67.499, Highs/Lows = 0.6399) with 1D trying to establish a new support (neutral ADX, Williams, CCI, Highs/Lows) near its Higher Low territory. Even on the event of such pull back, the curve will again support the upside movement. In both cases we are long with TP = 15.400.
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Breakout from channelAfter testing the senior channel at 13.10 two weeks ago, USD/ZAR initiated a new wave north along the bottom boundary of this pattern. This movement soon lost its strength, thus resulting in minor consolidation starting from the beginning of August.
The pair’s most recent development is a breakout from a strong resistance cluster formed by the monthly PP, the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-period (4H) SMA at 13.43. The junior channel was breached along the way.
From theoretical point of view, this breakout should be followed by a surge, at least in the short term. The nearest upside target is the 13.80 level where the monthly R1 and the most junior channel are located. In case this appreciation does not occur, traders should wait for a fall below the 200-hour SMA and the senior channel that should confirm a price decline for a couple of session.