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Bullish momentum to extend?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 3,487.10 1st Support: 3,278.38 1st Resistance: 3,757.61 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:ETHUSDLong
by ICmarkets
NZDUSD to find sellers at current resistance?NZDUSD - 24h expiry The medium term bias remains bearish. The rally has posted a correction count on the daily chart. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Bespoke resistance is located at 0.5900. We look to Sell at 0.5905 (stop at 0.5929) Our profit targets will be 0.5845 and 0.5830 Resistance: 0.5890 / 0.5920 / 0.5940 Support: 0.5840 / 0.5820 / 0.5800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
Could the Cable bounce from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.2609 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.2508 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 1.2752 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Falling towards overlap support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.8849 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.8799 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 0.8915 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Long
by VantageMarkets
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USD/CAD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.89% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.4090 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.4175 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.3991 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap support and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0519 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 1.0600 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0334 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 100% projection. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD: Inverse Head and Shoulders buy signal.EURUSD is bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 38.974, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 37.510) as it continues to trade near the bottom of the long term Channel Down. At the same time its low made contact with the bottom of the Bearish Megaphone. Technically that formed the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The standard target for this pattern is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 1.08630). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
BOJ’s Ueda hints at rate hike, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.03, up 0.26% on the day. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hinting about a rate hike and gave what was perhaps his strongest hint on Friday. In a newspaper interview, Ueda said that interest rate hikes are “nearing in the sense that economic data are on track”. Ueda also added that the BoJ has a “big question mark” over the outlook for US economic policy, with Donald Trump taking office next month. Ueda reiterated that the central bank wants to see a sustainable rise by inflation to the 2% target and expressed concern about the weak yen, warning the BoJ could respond with “countermeasures”. The BoJ makes its next rate announcement on Dec.19. Will it raise rates at that meeting or wait until January? The BoJ has done a poor job of communicating its intentions and after the surprise BoJ rate hike in August triggered turmoil in the financial markets. Ueda’s comments may have been an attempt to show greater transparency, although he failed to mention a timeline for the next rate hike. The markets have fully priced in a rate hike by January, with the probability of a December hike at around 60%. In the US, it’s a busy data calendar, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released later today, with a market estimate of 47.5 for November, compared to 46.5 in October. Manufacturing has been in a prolonged recession, with only one month of growth over the past two years. USD/JPY tested resistance at 150.30 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 151.13 There is support at 148.89 and 148.06
by OANDA
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% last week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment. US Data Falls Short of Expectations A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains. Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results: - **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence. While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak. Comparative Economic Outlook The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics: | Metric | US | Eurozone | |-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------| | **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% | | **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% | | **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% | | **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% | | **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 | | **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 | While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges. Outlook for EUR/USD Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth. Conclusion While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing. Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
USDCHF to continue in the upward move?USDCHF - 24h expiry Daily signals are bullish. 20 1day EMA is at 0.8806. The overnight dip has been bought into and there is scope for further bullish pressure going into this morning. We look to buy dips. Our outlook is bullish. Support is located at 0.8800 and should stem dips to this area. We look to Buy at 0.8806 (stop at 0.8778) Our profit targets will be 0.8876 and 0.8886 Resistance: 0.8853 / 0.8875 / 0.8890 Support: 0.8834 / 0.8820 / 0.8794 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
7
EURUSD Once in a year buy opportunity about to run out.Last week (November 25, see chart below) we gave an ultimate buy call on the EURUSD pair as the price pierced through the 1.5 year Channel Down and immediately rebounded: As you can see, that was the absolute bottom of the pattern, its technical Lower Low, which happened last time more than 1 year ago, on October 03 2023. The 1-week rally that followed is on a pull-back today as the new week opened and based on the previous two Lower Lows, this might be the final one, i.e. the last buy opportunity we will get before multi-week rally. More specifically and as far as the October 2023 bottom is concerned, we are on the 1W RSI rebound similar to the week of October 23 2023. At the same time, this matches being on the 1W MACD's 2nd straight pink histogram bar. This indicates that this could be the last red week before the rally. Our Target remains intact at 1.08765, exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the November 2023 Fib test). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
Multi-swing high resistance ahead?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot which and could drop to the 23.6% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 3,883.63 1st Support: 3,452.30 1st Resistance: 4,092.48 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:ETHUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Bearish drop off 78.6% Fibonacci resistance?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the pullback support. Pivot: 0.5984 1st Support: 0.5832 1st Resistance: 0.6062 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 149.33 1st Support: 146.85 1st Resistance: 151.60 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce off the overlap support?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is falling towards the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level. Pivot: 0.8746 1st Support: 0.8632 1st Resistance: 0.8913 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Could the Cable reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.2859 1st Support: 1.2616 1st Resistance: 1.3044 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.0662 1st Support: 1.0496 1st Resistance: 1.0776 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both CurrenciesAUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both Currencies The AUD/USD pair remained relatively steady last week, consolidating as both the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD) stood out as some of the strongest currencies in the forex market. While both currencies are supported by robust fundamentals, differing factors drive their respective strengths, creating an interesting dynamic for the pair. Strength in the Australian Dollar The Australian dollar’s strength stems from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) ability to maintain its current monetary policy. With interest rates at 4.35%, the RBA faces less urgency to implement sharp rate cuts, supported by: - **GDP Annual Growth Rate:** Australia’s economy is growing at 1.00% annually, showing moderate but steady expansion. - **Inflation and Employment:** Relatively high inflation and low unemployment provide the central bank room to hold rates steady, balancing growth with price stability. These factors position the AUD as one of the more stable and attractive currencies among major forex pairs. The Resilient US Dollar On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong, bolstered by robust economic data and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates: - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16):** Better-than-expected at 213K, indicating a healthy labor market. - **S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.):** Surprising to the upside at 57.0, reflecting strong activity in the services sector. However, additional data from the US this week showed signs of slowing economic activity, adding pressure to the dollar: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Declined to -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Slumped to 0.61M, missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Dropped to -14, underperforming the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by only 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.5%. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped sharply to 40.2, well below the expected 44. While the US economy remains stronger overall, these data points highlight areas of cooling, which tempered the dollar’s momentum. Seasonality No Longer Supportive Unlike earlier in the quarter, seasonality now provides less support for AUD/USD. As the year-end approaches, seasonal patterns often shift toward favoring the US dollar due to increased demand for liquidity and a cautious risk environment. This shift adds another layer of resistance for the Australian dollar, which typically performs better during periods of stronger global growth sentiment. Conclusion AUD/USD is in a unique position as both currencies are supported by strong fundamentals. While the Australian dollar benefits from steady domestic conditions and inflationary pressures, the US dollar is bolstered by robust economic performance and higher interest rates. However, signs of cooling in the US economy, as reflected in recent data, have given the AUD a short-term advantage. With seasonality no longer providing support, the pair’s near-term trajectory will depend on further macroeconomic developments and risk sentiment shifts. What are your thoughts on AUD/USD? Could the Australian dollar take the lead, or will the US dollar maintain its upper hand? Share your insights in the comments!
by InvestMate
XAUUSD 1/12/24Heading into a new week with a fresh bias on gold, we maintain an overall short bias and aim to follow it. However, we are fully aware that the chances of gold moving long are relatively high. Because of this, we advise caution. Gold can be a challenging asset to trade due to its sensitivity to fundamentals and potential counter-bias movements. Regardless, we stick to our data-proven ruleset. Currently, we are monitoring two key areas: the liquidity highs above the current price and the supply zone at the top of the last major high. These areas may offer good opportunities for a sell move. However, we are more inclined to see a sweep of a major high followed by a sell-off, aligning with our expected short bias. Additionally, the upward-moving institutional average suggests that if gold begins to trade below this level, it could further support our anticipated downward move. Trade safely, and stick to your plan and risk management strategy!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety