USD
EURUSD Today's 1D Death Cross turning into a 3 month rally!The EURUSD pair is having a strong bullish reversal after marginally breaking on Friday below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down. The 1W RSI got marginally oversold (below 30.00), which is a technical buy level.
So far it is similar to the October 03 2023 bottom, which was formed on a 1D Death Cross, exactly the kind of pattern that is being completed today! That bottom initiated a strong 3-month rally that hit the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Our long-term Target is 1.08765 (Fib 0.618).
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AUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both CurrenciesAUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both Currencies
The AUD/USD pair remained relatively steady last week, consolidating as both the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD) stood out as some of the strongest currencies in the forex market. While both currencies are supported by robust fundamentals, differing factors drive their respective strengths, creating an interesting dynamic for the pair.
Strength in the Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar’s strength stems from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) ability to maintain its current monetary policy. With interest rates at 4.35%, the RBA faces less urgency to implement sharp rate cuts, supported by:
- GDP Annual Growth Rate: Australia’s economy is growing at 1.00% annually, showing moderate but steady expansion.
- Inflation and Employment: Relatively high inflation and low unemployment provide the central bank room to hold rates steady, balancing growth with price stability.
These factors position the AUD as one of the more stable and attractive currencies among major forex pairs.
The Resilient US Dollar
On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong, bolstered by robust economic data and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates:
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): Better-than-expected at 213K, indicating a healthy labor market.
- S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprising to the upside at 57.0, reflecting strong activity in the services sector.
With US interest rates at 4.75%, higher than Australia’s, and diminishing prospects of immediate rate cuts, the USD continues to attract global capital. However, the dollar’s strength is moderated by seasonal trends and risk-on sentiment, which tend to favor higher-yielding and riskier assets like the AUD.
Key Event Ahead for the AUD
The most significant event for the Australian dollar this week will be the release of the Monthly CPI Indicator (October) on Wednesday. The market is anticipating a reading of 2.3%, which will provide crucial insight into inflation trends and the RBA’s potential policy direction. A higher-than-expected result could further strengthen the AUD by reducing expectations of future rate cuts.
Seasonality and Risk-On Sentiment
Seasonal patterns and a supportive risk-on sentiment are also aiding the AUD/USD pair. Investors’ appetite for riskier assets typically benefits the Australian dollar, which is closely tied to global growth and commodity markets.
Conclusion
AUD/USD is in a unique position as both currencies are supported by strong fundamentals. While the Australian dollar benefits from steady domestic conditions and inflationary pressures, the US dollar is bolstered by robust economic performance and higher interest rates.
The upcoming inflation report in Australia will likely set the tone for the AUD’s near-term trajectory, while broader market sentiment and seasonal trends could favor continued consolidation or moderate gains in the pair.
What are your thoughts on AUD/USD? Could the Australian dollar take the lead, or will the US dollar maintain its upper hand? Share your insights in the comments!
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Remember what I said on my last Gold update? We could see a short squeeze happen on Gold to trap new buyers & liquidate early sellers. I said if Gold passes the $2,700 mark then it could go up to $2,720 - $2,735 before dropping. Price touched $2,720 last night & melted right back down with accuracy🎯
Overall, our bearish bias remains intact despite the short squeeze!
XAUUSD 25/11/24Following last week's shift into a bullish narrative, we remain bullish on the higher timeframe. This outcome was anticipated in our previous reports, where we noted that failing to interact with key areas appropriately would likely result in a bullish shift.
As expected, the daily bias has also turned bullish, aligning with our forecast. We failed to engage with the liquid highs and areas of supply, resulting in a push upward and the establishment of a new upward trajectory. Currently, we have an unmitigated area of supply, representing a potential counter move. While this scenario is less likely, we are closely monitoring the area of demand at the base of the last major move. If the current upward trajectory breaks, this demand zone will be our focus.
As always, if the price continues downward to the demand area and fails to hold, we will look for lower points within the current range. Our bias will remain bullish unless the daily timeframe bias shifts again. However, if there is no pullback—as previously mentioned—this will be a counter-trend move, increasing the likelihood of another upward expansion. This would target pre-established highs and potentially breach the area of supply.
It’s also worth noting that there are several pockets of liquidity around the demand area, as well as liquidity above the major highs of our previous downward trade.
Trade safely, stick to your plan, and always follow your risk management rules.
EURUSD 25/11/24Starting the week a little later than usual with a markup on EUR/USD. Following weeks and months of bearish price action, we continue to anticipate further downside movement. This outlook aligns with our daily bias, which indicates a bearish trend.
The market opened with a significant gap to the upside across most brokers, increasing the likelihood of the gap being closed. Additionally, there is an untapped supply area above the current price level. Two liquidity highs are situated above this area, suggesting a potential pullback to liquidate these levels. If this occurs, we will look for continued sell-side movement.
However, pullbacks are not guaranteed during trending conditions. If the price continues to expand downward without retracing, our first target will be the gap left open at the market's opening. Beyond that, we will focus on the major low marked at the base of the current move.
Please be mindful of key fundamental events this week, as they may cause a midweek shift in our bias. For now, our outlook remains bearish, and we are focused on identifying sell opportunities. Refer to the points on our charts for guidance on potential downside movement.
If the supply area and liquidity highs are reached but fail to trigger a bearish shift, it may signal a deeper pullback on higher timeframes.
Stick to your plan, manage your risk, and trade safely. Wishing you an amazing trading week!
GOLD WHAT A BORING. PipGuard | THE GUIDE☀️ Good morning coffee to everyone! ☕
From where I’m writing, it’s morning—so, a real good morning to you all! How are you doing? I hope everything is great as always! 💖
Before we start...
📢 Let me ask you for a quick favor: give this a boost, a follow, and leave a comment!
I share my market analyses for free, and as you know, they can be highly profitable 💸. Supporting my work takes just a moment, it’s simple, fast, and most importantly, free! Thank you, my friend! 🙏
Let’s talk about the market! 💹
For weeks, I’ve been calling for a gold correction, and guess what? BOOM ! Last night, the price dropped by a massive 600 pips . 🎯
Let me be upfront: I’m not a fan of this recent rally. 😑
It’s been driven by various factors—Trump’s election, global geopolitical tensions, and more. However, in my view, this correction isn’t over yet . And if it is? Don’t worry! PipGuard’s got your back, always offering comprehensive analyses for both directions.
Technical Analysis: “Gold is boring!” 🤓
Yes, I know—it’s tedious. But it’s crucial! 💼
The market had the chance to correct as early as last Wednesday, but it chose to climb instead. Fair enough— let’s dig into the details:
📊 Timeframes analyzed: Weekly (WK), 24H, and 4H.
💥 Price action last night: a sharp drop. Last Friday, the market performed a liquidity grab at 2710 , just above my bearish entry (2712–2722). This was accompanied by:
- A breaker block on the 24H timeframe
- A bearish order block (30-minute timeframe) between 2715 and 2722.
And voilà, the downward move materialized!
What now? Here’s the breakdown.
📉 Bearish liquidity: spotted between 2676 and 2692 , close to our structural shift. This proximity makes further downside highly probable.
But remember! We’re not wizards or fortune-tellers 🧙♂️—we operate based on statistical advantages, our true superpower. 💪
👉 Key level: 2650.
- If the price stays above it, bullish continuation remains possible.
- If it closes below (preferably with a full-body 24H or weekly candle), a further drop becomes likely, targeting 2525 , 2515 , and potentially 2480.
📈 Bullish scenario?
Two possibilities:
1. The price reacts to the latest order block.
2. It pushes toward new highs.
o wrap it up...
If you found this analysis helpful, please boost, follow, and comment! 🚀
I dedicate a lot of time and effort to create these free insights for you—I don’t keep trades just for myself! 😉
Wishing you an amazing day and a great start to your week! 🌟
Best regards,
PipGuard. 💼✨
XAUUSD - The rise of gold is over!?Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a corrective movement with low momentum, we can witness the continued rise and see supply zones and sell within that range with a suitable risk reward.
After enduring two weeks of sharp declines following Donald Trump's election victory, the gold market bounced back with a strong bounce last week. The price of this precious metal grew in all trading sessions of the week and by Friday afternoon, with an increase of nearly 150 dollars, it once again attracted the attention of investors.
Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes that the Swiss Federal Customs Service released data on gold exports in October this week. "These data showed very different trends. Deliveries to China were significantly weaker at just 5 tonnes. Almost no gold was exported to Hong Kong. On the other hand, exports to India have increased. However, the export level in October was still relatively low at 11.7 tons. A little more gold than the previous month has been delivered to America.
However, inflows of 30 tonnes into US-listed gold ETFs, reported by the World Gold Council (WGC), in October were higher than the 9.4 tonnes reported. The sharp increase in Swiss gold exports to the UK to 31.9 tonnes is surprising, although gold ETFs listed there recorded outflows in October, according to the World Gold Council.
Darin Newsom, chief market analyst at Barchart.com, stated in his analysis of the future trend of gold:
"The path of movement of gold is still upward. But due to the speed and intensity of the recent upward trend, there is a possibility of a sudden correction in the market. This risk increases due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and the end of the month."
He also emphasized:
"Despite this, geopolitical factors continue to play a decisive role in the market. The current chaos has overwhelmed technical analysis and Russian President Putin has not backed down from his nuclear threats. These conditions will most likely lead investors to buy gold until the end of 2024."
Next week, the US economic calendar will be shorter than usual due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but several key reports will continue to be in the focus of traders. On Tuesday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November and new home sales for October will be released in early market hours. Next, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are published.
On Wednesday, key data releases will be limited to the early hours of the day due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The market will watch the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) core inflation index for October, which is one of the key indicators considered by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation. At the same time, the statistics of durable goods orders and the weekly report of unemployment claimants will also be published. Then, pending home sales figures for October will be released, which will provide a clear picture of housing market trends.
Bullish momentum to extend for the Bitcoin?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 91,689.26
1st Support: 86,579.45
1st Resistance: 99,638.15
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.5772
1st support: 0.5657
1st Resistance: 0.5915
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6557
1st Support: 0.6442
1st Resistance: 0.6645
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards the 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3850
1st Support: 1.3649
1st Resistance: 1.4000
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 151.62
1st Support: 149.23
1st Resistance: 157.75
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.8989
1st Support: 0.8802
1st Resistance: 0.9159
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.2615
1st Support: 1.2324
1st Resistance: 1.2825
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Overlap resistance ahead?NZD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5879
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.5914
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 0.5816
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bearish drop?GBP/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2619
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with he 61.8% and the 23.5% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2725
Why we like it:
There is am overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.2473
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Falling towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8859
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8800
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.8959
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.