R2F Weekly Analysis - 30th September 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
USD
XAUUSD 29/09/24This week on gold, we maintain a similar overall outlook, with the price action expected to continue moving upward. Take note of the previous high. If a pullback occurs due to any fundamental factors, particularly the potential conflict in the Middle East, there may be opportunities to go long from the highlighted areas. However, if no pullback occurs, expect the price action to continue rising.
If we move higher from the current levels, the recent high will likely be taken out. Conversely, if we move lower from our current position, the probability of reaching the high remains strong. Be sure to note the liquid lows, which are in line with both the short-term trajectory and the longer-term trajectory, aligned with higher timeframe demand.
EURUSD 29/09/24Starting the week with the Euro to U.S. Dollar. Following last week, we saw a clear push to the upside, with price action generating solid movement in an uptrend. We expect this momentum to continue as the U.S. Dollar shows signs of weakening. This suggests a high probability of price action moving toward the previously established high, which serves as a key area of trajectory, clearly pointing upwards. This is a leading indicator of a potential new high being formed.
Additionally, there are areas of liquidity and demand, which are crucial points of interest should we see a pullback. Keep in mind, our daily trajectory is clearly bullish. However, if we break below the trajectory low and fail to react to the demand area, I would expect price action to decline further, taking us to the lower end of the range on the higher timeframe.
Stick to your risk. Always follow your trading plan.
Usdjpy could be seeing a turn ,mindful of spikes on monday Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Chart wise it seems to be heading more to the downside resuming its downtrend.the friday's move was due to the election in japan. Now that the result is out, let's see how the market react on monday.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Usd still not given clear direction on higher TimeframeHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Right at the low of 2023 Jan,want to break but not breaking the last FOMC lows...only to play the whips so far...not clear direction..hopefully NFP give some clear indication of either further downside OR reversal.
What you all think?
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
*********************************************************************
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
*********************************************************************
NZDUSD - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Price is close to some juicy equal highs, so I will be anticipating a retracement into a POI to catch a trade on a lower timeframe to that area as my low hanging fruit objective.
I see price either coming into a 2W Bullish Breaker (Coupled with a NWOG), or a 2D Bullish Orderblock.
The annotated stoploss is for illustration purposes only. Price can very well wick down there, albeit a more extreme scenario. If price closes below that 2D Bullish OB, then this long idea would be no longer valid until the equal lows are taken out.
- R2F
GBPUSD - Long Trade IdeaNo current refined POI for entry, but I am fairly confident on the current target. Stoploss below the current swing low.
It is pretty straight forward. Price is following OBs and BISIs, and is on course to take out the immediate swing high. The target is a NWOG area, similar to what we saw on EURUSD in the past when it made its most recent high.
- R2F
USDCHF: Channel Down continuation.USDCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.352, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 28.323) as despite the one month consolidaiton since Aug 27th, it is still inside a Channel Down long term. Technically as it approaches the top even sideways, it should start the new bearish wave. The one prior to that hit the 2.0 Fibonacci level. We expect a similar LL to be priced (TP = 0.8100).
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USDCAD Prepare for red October - November.The USDCAD pair hit both of our Targets on the July 25 (see chart below) sell signal:
The initial rebound stopped on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) where the price was rejected with the 1D RSI forming a pattern similar to May 2023. As a result, it is possible to see another short-term rebound but on the medium-term, we expect October and November to be another sell sequence.
The March - July 2023 fractal had two similar Bearish Legs of -4.10% each. So since the current first Leg was -3.64%, we expect the one that will follow now to be of around the same strength.
As a result we can target 1.32000 on low risk, just above the Support 1 level.
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Bearish drop?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support level which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.6354
1st Support: 0.6255
1st Resistance: 0.6411
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?USD/CAD is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3502
1st Support: 1.3423
1st Resistance: 1.3549
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reeversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 145.97
1st Support: 144.28
1st Resistance: 147.63
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Multi-swing high resistance ahead?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a multi-swing high resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.1197
1st Support: 1093
1st Resistance: 1.1243
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDCAD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.35 zone, USDCAD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.35 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDUSD: Bullish Stocks And Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a buying opportunity around 0.66200 zone, AUDUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.66200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Walz vs. Vance: Markets to Watch Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance are set to clash next week in the sole U.S. vice presidential debate, an opportunity for both candidates to bolster their running mates’ platforms ahead of the crucial November 5 election.
For the exact date and time of major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Will the markets mirror the first debate’s outcome?
Vance faces an uphill battle, with polling data showing he carries higher unfavorable ratings compared to Walz. So, unless Vance exceeds expectations during the debate, the "winner" will likely be the more favored candidate going in.
During the first debate between Trump and Harris, assets linked to the Harris/Walz ticket surged post-debate. Green economy stocks rose 4.1%, renewables climbed 4.0%, and oil gained 2.1%, driven by lower supply expectations. Semiconductors saw a 4.4% uptick. Meanwhile, Trump-trade assets stumbled, with Trump Media & Technology Group plunging 13%, and crypto-related stocks, including Bitcoin, pulling back.
USDJPY: Going for the 1D MA200. Bottom priced in.USDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.086, MACD = -0.760, ADX = 27.579) as it is recovering from the previous oversold state and is already approaching the 1D MA50. September 16th was technically the new HL on the one year Channel Up bottom, with the 1D RSI already on a bullish divergence. These are all formation we saw on its previous bottom on January 16th 2023, whose rebound that followed initially hit the 1D MA200 before going for a full yearly extension. That's our medium term target again (TP = 150.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Buy XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish FlagThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2660, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2681
2nd Support – 2696
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2648. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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DXY - MidtermThe FED surprised the markets with a 0.50 point preemptive rate cut. We expect this preemptive cut to cause a downward movement in the dollar index. However, we do not foresee a long-term downtrend. While the FED started the process with a larger-than-expected cut, other central banks had already begun their rate-cutting cycles much earlier. Therefore, after a brief decline, we expect the dollar index to stabilize and rise again.
Technically, the first of our two major support levels, 100.6, has been broken. We now expect the decline to continue towards the second major support zone between 99.4 and 99.75. The double-top technical formation on short-term charts also supports the downward momentum. If the price finds support in the 99.4 - 99.75 range, we could see a rise towards the 102.2 - 103 area.
As for the impact on other dollar pairs, we expect to see upward movements in XxxUsd pairs and downward movements in UsdXxx pairs.