AUDUSD Bullish break-out signalThe AUDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for the whole month of February and since yesterday it is making a bounce on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Today it broke above the previous High and this is a bullish break-out signal. The previous Bullish Leg that rebounded on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and broke above its previous High, targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
With the presence of an Inner Higher Highs trend-line, we expect the pair to hit the 1.382 Fib at 0.64250.
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Bitcoin Rejection at Resistance: Potential Drop to 94,825This BTC/USD 1-hour chart highlights a key resistance zone around 96,400, where price has tested and failed to break through. A rejection from this level suggests potential downside movement. If the price confirms rejection at resistance, a bearish move toward the target zone near 94,825 is likely. The overall setup indicates a possible short opportunity if resistance holds.
Resistance : Around 96,400 – 96,600
Target: 94,825
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 151.27
1st Support: 149.66
1st Resistance: 152.64
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish continuation?The Aussie (AUD/USD0 is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6376
1st Support: 0.6331
1st Resistance: 0.6449
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDCHF Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.90200 zone, USDCHF was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Rebound Opportunities
Hello readers, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Professional Trader. Today I want to show you my technical analysis on USD/JPY, a currency cross that has caught my attention for its current oversold position. I will analyze the various timeframes (1 day, 4 hours and 1 hour) to give you a clearer overview of the trading opportunities that could open up in the coming days.
Analysis on the Daily Chart (1D)
Let's start with the 1-day chart, where we can clearly see that the USD/JPY pair is in an oversold zone. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the price have reached levels that indicate a potential reversal. The bearish trend has been consolidated for several days now, but the market seems to be starting to exhaust its strength, approaching a possible support area. The moving averages (200 EMA, 50 EMA and 20 EMA) suggest a possible price recovery when the market finds stable support. The area where we are is crucial for a possible rebound.
Analysis on the 4-Hour (4H) Chart
Moving to the 4-hour chart, the situation is similar: the RSI is clearly in the oversold zone, and we can observe that the price has made a significant correction. This tells us that the market could be ready to reverse direction, with a recovery towards the next resistance level, located near 152,500. The structure of the market in this time frame suggests that it could be a good time to enter a long trade with short-term targets.
Analysis on the 1-Hour (1H) Chart
Finally, the 1-hour chart further confirms our hypothesis of an oversold zone. The RSI has reached extreme levels, indicating that the market could remain in this condition for a while, but a correction is also likely to occur soon. The price action on this timeframe indicates a potential entry opportunity for those looking to take advantage of a technical bounce. The short-term moving averages are starting to move away from the price, which could indicate a change in the direction of the trend.
Conclusion
In summary, USD/JPY seems to be in an oversold phase on all major timeframes (1D, 4H, 1H). This could be a signal that the market is ready to retrace, with a possible rally in the coming days. Traders could consider entering a long position, looking to take advantage of a technical bounce towards resistances. However, it is crucial to monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as the RSI, to try to avoid trading in a further downside environment.
As always, I recommend using rigorous risk management to protect your capital in the event of unexpected market movements.
Happy trading and see you soon with more analysis!
Andrea Russo
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 72.97
1st Support: 70.37
1st Resistance: 74.21
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 20 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - US Unemployment ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Some USA economic news today:
US : Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Minor Supply is holding and demand is failing to facilitate the INT-INT Bullish structure Pullback which reached the structure EQ (50%).
3️⃣
🔹After the Bullish ii-BOS, price pulled in a corrective PA to the structure EQ (50%) and currently within the Daily Demand.
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures.
🔹Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount.
🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback.
🔹Technically Shorts is the straight forward play (Played very well yesterday as per expectations and executions), but keep in mind that the Bearish INT structures task is to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback and we are currently in the Swing Discount Zone and if the Swing is going to continue Bullish, there is a high probability that the INT Structure is going to shift Bullish.
3️⃣
🔹It’s a crossroads! Expectations is for price to turn Bullish and create a Bullish INT structure to confirm the Swing Pullback is over and the start of the Swing Bullish continuation Phase (Bullish iBOS for confirmation).
🔹Will be looking for longs after Bullish iBOS. As for Shorts, not in my interest currently based on where we are within the 115m Swing (Discount)/15m & 4H Demand even with the INT structure is Bearish.
EUR/USD Wedge Breakout (17.2.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0413
2nd Support – 1.0375
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Bullish bounce?USD/ZAR is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 18.4638
1st Support: 18.3048
1st Resistance: 18.6315
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold is boring? Until it moves! – PipGuard Guide PT. 3 🔥 Gold is boring? Until it moves! – PipGuard Guide PT. 3 🔥
📢 Let's talk: FOLLOW ME, COMMENT, and DROP A BOOST! Because in here, we help each other and we mean business! 💪🔥
Welcome to the PipGuard Guide , the only one that tells it like it is: no filters, no fairy tales, just a pinch of sarcasm. Gold is playing hard to get (what a shock, right?), but trust me, sooner or later, it wakes up—and when it does, fireworks will follow.
🎯 Key levels to watch:
🚀 Bullish resistances: $2947 / $2943
🛠️ Bullish support: $2924
📉 Bearish resistances: $2918 / $2906
⚔️ Make-or-break level: $2906-$2905 ➜ Above? Bulls take charge. Below? Bears lurking.
💎 PipGuard Targets:
🎯 Bullish Premium: $3015
🔻 Bearish Premium: $2856
Watch out for $2906: that’s the thin line between paradise and disaster.
📌 If we hold above: bulls have room to run, aiming for $3015.
📌 If we break below: bears take over, dragging us down to $2856.
💡 So, what’s the move? Wait for a strong signal, then act—no hesitation. We're dancing above $2906, but if we slip… expect a hard fall. The market is either slapping us in the face or rewarding us with solid gold. And you? Ready to take your position?!
🔥 DROP A BOOST and COMMENT BELOW! What do you think? Sleeping gold or ready to strike? See you on the battlefield!
🚀 PipGuard
Bullish bounce off pullback support?GBP/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2526
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2463
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.2660
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EURUSD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.04300 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.04300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY fora selling opportunity around 151.800 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 151.800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD XAUUSD - PoVIn recent days, the price of gold has seen some increases, mainly driven by a mix of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Inflation, still high in many parts of the world, continues to support the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, despite rising interest rates from central banks. While this slows its growth, it doesn't stop investors from seeking protection against currency devaluation. Added to this are concerns about a potential global recession, which further pushes investors toward safe assets like gold. The U.S. dollar, which had previously driven gold lower, is now showing signs of weakness, especially due to expectations of a slowdown in Federal Reserve policy, which could make gold more attractive. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine and its global implications, continue to create uncertainties that drive up demand for gold. Looking ahead, the expectation is that the price of gold could continue to rise if economic and geopolitical uncertainty persists. Any slowdown in the Fed's aggressive policy could favor gold’s appreciation, as the precious metal becomes more appealing in a lower interest rate environment. However, if inflation were to significantly decrease or central banks continue raising rates, gold's upward movement could slow, but the safe-haven demand could still help maintain its value.
EURUSD - PoVThe EUR/USD exchange rate is influenced by several economic and political factors, suggesting that the euro may continue to weaken in the coming weeks. On one side, the United States is implementing expansive fiscal policies that could strengthen the dollar, such as economic stimulus and increased public spending. These factors, along with potential protectionist measures like tariffs on Europe, could further weaken the euro by reducing the competitiveness of European exports. Additionally, the **Federal Reserve's** monetary policy, which has raised interest rates to combat inflation, makes the dollar more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the U.S. currency. The United States' energy independence, due to increased domestic production of gas and oil, has also reduced its reliance on imports, which further strengthens the dollar compared to the euro.
On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing a series of economic and political challenges that are putting pressure on the single currency. High inflation is eroding purchasing power across the Eurozone, and despite the European Central Bank (ECB) raising interest rates to combat it, economic growth remains slow. This divergence from the United States, where growth has been more dynamic, amplifies the euro's weakness. Moreover, the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, worsened by the war in Ukraine and reduced gas supplies from Russia, has increased costs and slowed the competitiveness of European businesses. In this context, political uncertainties in some Eurozone countries and the ECB’s less aggressive economic management compared to the Fed further contribute to the euro's weakness.
Therefore, the strengthening of the dollar, driven by U.S. policies and growing energy independence, and the structural weakness of the Eurozone, are likely to continue pushing the EUR/USD lower in the coming weeks.
WTI OIL - USOUSDShort-term outlook:
Downward trend: Right now, there are signs that oil prices could drop, mainly due to weaker global demand and potential overproduction of oil. Citi predicts that without deeper OPEC+ production cuts, prices could fall to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025.
Upward trend: However, OPEC+ might take action to reduce production if prices continue to fall, aiming to keep prices higher, as they’ve done in the past. Also, geopolitical factors could cause temporary price spikes.
Bottom line: There's no strong signal that prices will rise consistently in the short term, but a rebound is possible if geopolitical events or OPEC+ decisions push the market up. However, the trend seems more likely to be downward for the next few weeks.
Trade Idea for U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Feb 19, 2025📌 Current Market Context
DXY is trading at 107.023 , slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (106.344).
This level is a key golden ratio support, where strong reversals often happen.
The uptrend from Sept 2024 suggests that bulls are still in control unless this retracement turns into a full reversal.
📈 Bullish Trade Idea (Buy Setup)
✅ Entry: Look for bullish price action (rejection wicks, engulfing candles, or a strong bounce) near 106.344 - 106.500 .
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 108.035 (78.6% Fib)
Target 2 : 110.189 (previous high)
📍 Stop-Loss: Below 105.800 (just under 61.8% retracement to avoid stop hunts).
📊 Risk/Reward: ~1:2 or better.
📉 Bearish Trade Idea (Sell Setup)
❌ Trigger: If DXY closes below 106.344 on a daily candle , it could signal further downside.
📉 Entry: Sell below 106.200 after confirmation.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1 : 105.156 (50% Fib)
Target 2 : 103.968 (38.2% Fib)
📍 Stop-Loss: Above 107.000 (to avoid fakeouts).
📊 Risk/Reward: 1:2 minimum.
🛠️ Risk Management Notes
Watch for fundamental news (FOMC, inflation data, rate decisions) that could cause volatility.
Use partial take profits to secure gains along the way.
If entering a buy trade, consider trailing stops once price reaches 108.035.
EUR/USD Rejects 1.0469 – Drop to 1.0399 or Reversal Ahead?EUR/USD Technical Analysis – February 19, 2025
The price is rejecting from the pivot line at 1.0469, confirming bearish momentum after failing to sustain above the key level.
Technical Outlook
Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 1.0469, the downtrend remains valid, targeting 1.0399. A break below this level could extend losses toward 1.0367 and 1.0288.
Bullish Scenario: To reverse the bearish momentum, EUR/USD must break back above 1.0469, which could trigger an upward move toward 1.0520 and 1.0605.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Pivot Point: 1.0436
🔹 Resistance Levels: 1.0520, 1.0605
🔹 Support Levels: 1.0390, 1.0367, 1.0288
📉 Directional Bias: The price is expected to drop toward 1.0399 while trading below 1.0469. A break below 1.0399 confirms further downside movement.
💬 Will EUR/USD hold below 1.0469 for further downside, or reclaim the level for a reversal? Drop your thoughts! 👇🔥