Waiting for a Short-Term Pullback Before the Next Bullish Leg? NZDUSD – Waiting for a Short-Term Pullback Before the Next Bullish Leg?
As global markets await the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week, NZDUSD is showing early signs of short-term weakness following a strong bullish rally from the 0.5905 low. While the broader structure remains bullish, a corrective move may be necessary to shake out weak hands and reload liquidity before a renewed surge.
🌐 Macro & Fundamental Outlook:
New Zealand: Recent economic releases from New Zealand have been lackluster, yet the RBNZ's hawkish policy stance (high interest rates) continues to support the Kiwi. However, pressure from China – New Zealand’s top trading partner – remains a drag.
United States: The U.S. Dollar remains under pressure due to rising expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates by Q3 2025, despite some hawkish tones from FOMC officials. This week’s NFP report will be a decisive factor.
Market Sentiment: After a ~150-pip rally, traders are beginning to take profits. The correction could offer a golden re-entry opportunity.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Trend Bias: The market structure is still in an uptrend, maintaining Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Fibonacci Retracement: Price is currently pulling back toward the 0.5 – 0.618 Fibo zone (0.5992 – 0.5978), aligning with the H1 89 & 200 EMAs.
EMA Structure (13 – 34 – 89 – 200): Still bullish but currently signaling a short-term pullback.
🔑 Key Price Zones:
Resistance Levels: 0.6014 – 0.6052
Support Levels: 0.5973 – 0.5951 – 0.5932
🧭 Trade Plan
📌 Buy Setup (trend continuation):
BUY ZONE: 0.5951 – 0.5932
SL: 0.5900
TP: 0.5978 → 0.6014 → 0.6052
📌 Expecting a bullish bounce off the 61.8% Fibo + EMA 200 confluence ahead of NFP.
📌 Sell Setup (short-term countertrend scalp):
SELL ZONE: 0.6014 – 0.6025
SL: 0.6060
TP: 0.5978 → 0.5951
📌 Anticipating a reaction at a key resistance zone – ideal for intraday scalpers.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes:
Stay cautious ahead of high-impact U.S. data (ADP, Jobless Claims, NFP).
Favor buying the dip in line with the higher-timeframe trend.
Maintain discipline with tight SLs (30–35 pips max per setup).
