USDJPY Strong buy opportunity long-term.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 17 2022 High. The recent 6-week correction below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is its technical Bearish Leg in order to price new Higher Low.
The pull-back even broke below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) but recovered as it didn't close a 1W candle below it and now the price action has settled within the 1W MA50 and MA100.
If we do get a 1W candle closing below the MA100, wait for a buy near the bottom of the Channel Up, with the least risky buy being after the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross (has confirmed the last 2 major long-term rallies).
If it breaks above the 1W MA50 first though, the 1W MACD will most likely also complete its Bullish Cross earlier, so we will buy nonetheless, even though the reward potential will be less. In either case, our Target is Resistance 1 (as it was on the rally that peaked on the week of November 13 2023) at 161.800.
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USD
Could the Aussie reverse from here?The price is currently at the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6752
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 0.6865
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 0.6643
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish reversal?GBP/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3141
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.3287
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.8018
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Navigating RBA Hawkishness and Economic Red Flags
R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
R2 0.6753 – 21 August high– Medium
S1 0.6637 – 19 August low– Medium
S2 0.6563 – 15 August low – Strong
This week's RBA Minutes came out confirming the recent more hawkish leaning RBA decision. The central bank hinted at the fact that the cash rate would stay where it is for an extended period of time, while the possibility of additional tightening was also discussed. We've also seen the Australian Dollar getting added help from risk on flow and broad based US Dollar selling. There is some cause for concern however, after the Commonwealth Bank was out calling for a quicker deterioration in the Australian economy than the RBA. The Commonwealth Bank sees an RBA rate cut in November. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK public finances, Canada producer prices, and the Fed Minutes.
FOMC & 800K Fewer Jobs Dragging on Dollar The dollar is under pressure, with persistent selling pressure driving it to new yearly lows across several currencies, including the pound.
A recent revision of jobs data revealed that U.S. job growth was significantly weaker than initially reported, with 818,000 fewer jobs added (for the year ending March 2024). This huge downward adjustment, the largest since 2009, indicates that the labor market cooled more rapidly than previously thought.
These revised job figures could likely intensify concerns that the Federal Reserve has been too slow in lowering interest rates.
At its July meeting, Federal Reserve officials considered the possibility of a rate cut but opted to hold off, hinting at a move in September. Markets are now pricing in a September cut, which would be the first since the emergency measures taken during the early days of the Covid crisis.
Regarding the labor market, “many” officials noted that “reported payroll gains might be overstated,” which means that the Federal Reserve might be ahead of the rest of us, and exactly where it wants to be regarding timing the rate cuts.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,964 (4H UPDATE):Our Gold short analysis is moving as predicted. Buyers tapped into our supply zone, peaked at a high of $2,532 & has now melted back down 300 PIPS so far! This is only the START OF THE CORRECTION, before Gold allows us to buy it back at a cheaper price & target new high's in the market🚀
Personally, I did not manage to get into this sell position as I was away from the charts & busy. But I will look for a re-entry on the smaller TF's if markets present an opportunity.
AUDUSD Excellent sell opportunity approaching.The AUDUSD pair is approaching the 1-year Resistance Zone that has been in effect since June 2023 and has to this date priced 4 rejections. As long as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, the market will continue to apply extreme selling pressure every time the price hits that Zone.
Wait for the most optimal sell entry on this level and target the top of the Support Zone at 0.63650. Notice also how perfectly the 1W RSI has been trading within a Rectangle and is also approaching its top, i.e. the most optimal long-term sell entry.
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Is the USD selloff too aggressive? Bond yields suggest soTraders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.
Bearish drop?The Cable (GBP/USD) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could fall to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.3044
1st Support: 1.2939
1st Resistance: 1.3106
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) Bullish ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2516, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2551
2nd Support – 2573
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Bearish drop?USD/CHF has reacted to the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.8573
1st Support: 0.8448
1st Resistance: 0.8628
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 145.97
1st Support: 144.16
1st Resistance: 147.31
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give? Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give?
Credit Agricole anticipates a potential rally in USD/JPY this week, hinging on market reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming address at Jackson Hole. The bank suggests that traders might need to recalibrate their expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Current market sentiment, as reflected in the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, shows a 77.5% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut and a 22.5% chance of a 50 basis-point cut. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, David Mericle, also aligns with the 25 basis-point outlook for September, downplaying the likelihood of a more aggressive move.
The focus will be on Powell’s speech, scheduled for Friday at 10 a.m. ET. Should Powell strike a less dovish tone than expected, key resistance levels at 150.00 and 152.00 could be tested, with the potential for USD/JPY to surge even higher.
GOLD Pre\Post Analysis | Closing w\ $648.00 USD Profit TodayI do believe gold is going to continue to buy. As much as I know traders are interested in selling at the high, I don't think it is that probable to take that trade and the more you think of every trade in terms of probability, it saves you from taking some really shit trades, honestly.
Would you take a bet that you are either A. unsure you can win or B. know you will lose? Of course not, so why is it you take trades like that?
Take smarter trades.
Gold Bullish to $2,514 (1HR TF)This 1HR chart is a lead on from my 12H and 4H analysis which I have already posted.
As this is the final wave (Wave 5) marking the end of the CURRENT bullish cycle, before a temporary retracement occurs, it's likely this final phase will play out very slowly, in order to trap in early sellers and shake them out.
looking for Sell EUR/USD around 1.11(8/20/2024)it's still too soon to jump to a conclusion but it seems EUR/USD is moving inside a big diagonal triangle and right now has hit the upper dynamic trendline.
we can sell EUR/USD if the price shows some bearish signs around here.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
DXY is under 102.00 what now?(08/20/2024)DXY finally hit our target under the 102.00 zone.
Since 1 August, DXY has dropped continuously. Right now we are looking for a reversal pattern near the 101.4-101.8 zone.
our view has been negated if the price breaks below the 100.650.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
EURUSD Excellent long-term reward if you sell here.The EURUSD pair has broken above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since the week of July 17 2023). With this move it entered the (red) Resistance Zone of the practically Rectangle pattern that it has been trading in for more than 1.5 years.
Technically, the above conditions offer a great opportunity to sell for the long-term as during this time, the pair has been rejected here two times and once on the absolute Resistance 2 level (1.12750).
As a result we will use two short positions on EURUSD, aiming to close them on profit at the end of the year. All prior rejections hit at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so our Target will be slightly above it at 1.06650. From all angles, this opportunity offers solid Risk/ Reward conditions.
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