USDCHF - Looking for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair.
1. U.S. Budget Deficit:
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit for November reached $367 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is primarily attributed to calendar adjustments in benefit payments, which led to approximately $80 billion in additional government spending compared to November 2023.
2. BNP Paribas on Trump’s Tariff Policies:
BNP Paribas believes market analysts have underestimated the implications of Trump’s tariff policies and need to take them more seriously. The bank predicts that Trump will implement a significant portion of his tariff threats, even if not entirely. BNP Paribas anticipates these policies will cause a permanent shock to consumer prices in the U.S. while having a temporary effect on inflation. Additionally, the bank expects the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with the U.S. dollar likely to strengthen further, particularly against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar.
3. Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates:
On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the largest rate reduction in a decade. This move was aimed at staying ahead of potential rate cuts by other central banks and curbing the rising value of the Swiss franc.Most economists had predicted a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points.
This reduction represents the most significant decrease in borrowing costs since the SNB’s emergency rate cut in January 2015. With inflationary pressures subsiding, the SNB opted for further monetary easing. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 0.7% in November and has remained within the bank’s target range of 0–2% since May 2023. The 0.5% rate cut aims to further stimulate the economy and boost labor market activity.
4. Remarks by SNB President:
Thomas Schlegel, president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the bank considers all aspects of the franc’s value, not just its exchange rate against the euro. While acknowledging the effectiveness of negative interest rates, Schlegel emphasized that the SNB does not favor them but would resort to such measures again if necessary, as they have helped reduce the franc’s attractiveness.
5. Managing the Swiss Franc’s Value:
The Swiss franc, known as a global safe-haven currency, often appreciates during periods of market volatility, prompting the SNB to invest significant effort in managing its value. However, UBS has noted that this issue is no longer a major concern: “While the franc has strengthened against the euro, it has weakened against the U.S. dollar, maintaining a relatively stable trade-weighted exchange rate.”
USD
gold buy around 2685 target 27131. Buy Zone: 2685 CAPITALCOM:GOLD (entry level)
2. Target: 2713 (27-point profit potential)
3. Stop Loss (Recommended): To manage risk, consider placing a stop loss below 2680 or at a level based on your risk tolerance and market volatility.
4. Risk/Reward Ratio: Calculate based on your stop loss to ensure it's favorable (e.g., at least 1:2).
Bearish drop off overlap resistance?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 3,767.39
1st Support: 3,500.20
1st Resistance: 4,029.37
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Sell EUR/USD Channel BrekoutThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0482
2nd Support – 1.0445
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Is USD Setting Up for a Retrace?👀 👉 The DXY (USD) has shown strong momentum, rebounding sharply from a key support level and pushing into this 4H resistance zone. In my view, the price seems overextended, and I’m anticipating a retracement within the current price swing range back to equilibrium. 📢 *Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice.
NZDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.57800 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.57800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.05100 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.05100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 17.9006
1st Support: 17.7160
1st Resistance: 18.0045
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the price bounce from here?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,665.32
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.89% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,620.34
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 2,716.62
Why we like it:|
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Falling towards 61.8% Fibonacci support?XAG/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 30.68
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 29.82
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 32.02
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDCAD: Excellent short term buy opportunity.USDCAD is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.681, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 22.105) as it trades inside a Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50. The 4H MACD is forming a Bullish Cross and in the past 2 months this has been a strong bullish signal. In line with the previous bullish waves, we are aiming for a +2.60% rise from the bottom (TP = 1.42850).
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AAPL Winding up for a Pump or Massive Drop - Inflection PointWithin the next few quarters we're likely to see some impressive fireworks in the various markets around the world as we gear up for multiple black swan events IE negative oil prices.
The storm isn't over, it's just begun.
3 Month
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
USDJPY 1st 1D Golden Cross since June 2023! Bullish!The USDJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 21 2022 High. Today it formed its 1st Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame in 1.5 year (since June 202 2023) and technically it is a very bullish development.
It is not just the standard bullish dynamics of this formation but also that last time we had a Golden Cross, the price bottomed upon the completion of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, which we also got today and rallied to hit the Resistance 1 level.
As a result, this is a strong buy signal and our Target is just below Resistance 1 at 160.000.
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XAUUSD - 4hr Bum n Run updateLong story short... The market is currently playing inside the zone 2625-2655. (30pip range)
Gold should maintain above 2615. a Close below this level counld invalidate the Bump and run pattern and continue with more bearish pressure.
Its NFP week and you know the USD has been gaining strength. Wait for the breakout above 2655 before entering another Buy. We need strong bullish candles with high volume to make this setup a low-risk trade.
The targets are still the same:
Targets:
1 - 2685 (quarter 3 high)
2 - 2710 (target 1)
3 - 2750 (target 2)
4 - ATH
NZDUSD to continue in the downward move?NZDUSD - 24h expiry
There is no indication that the selloff is coming to an end.
Although we remain bearish overall, a correction is possible without impacting the trend lower.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 0.5775 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 0.5750.
We look to Sell at 0.5820 (stop at 0.5844)
Our profit targets will be 0.5760 and 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5800 / 0.5820 / 0.5850
Support: 0.5775 / 0.5760 / 0.5750
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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NZDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.58700 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.58700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.64400 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.64400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold overall is still holding bearish. I originally expected a ‘Flat Correction’ on the lower bound of the range, but price is now creating that same correction, on the upper bound of the range. Market analysis is still valid & I’m still holding my sell position’s open.
Market structure would be invalidated if price broke ABOVE previous Wave 5 high.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold overall is still holding bearish. I originally expected a ‘Flat Correction’ on the lower bound of the range, but price is now creating that same correction, on the upper bound of the range. Market analysis is still valid & I’m still holding my sell position’s open.
Market structure would be invalidated if price broke ABOVE previous Wave 5 high.
what is your idea about USD now ? what is your idea about USD now ?
In the 15 minute timeframe we have an umbrella pattern. Considering the Golden Zone and also the FVG, we can hope for the long position shown given the good candles and of course the US dollar news.
Good luck
Don't forget about money management.
XAUUSD - 4hr Bum n Run update (final)Let the Trade ride! Understand pullbacks will happen but the price is in motion. Respect the trend.
Gold has officially broken about the accumulation phase. Price has retraced back to previous resistance confirming new support. (2675)
Keep in mind:
Today
Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y
Thu
Dec 12
Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m
**Both of these red news events could shift the short term. watch for wicks and false breakouts
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the inflation index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If we maintain the drawn blue upward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and the limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the zone of supply, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. Returning below this trend line paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy within the zone of demand.
According to a report by Bank of America, gold remains on track to reach $3,000 per ounce next year. However, investors need to be patient, as the current price consolidation phase may continue through the first half of the year.
Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, stated during the bank’s 2025 Outlook webinar: “Currently, gold is stuck in an environment where there’s nothing tangible to draw investors back into the market.”
The second-largest U.S. bank has highlighted that gold faces significant challenges in the upcoming year, including weak demand from China and pressures on Western investors, who are dealing with the prospect of higher bond yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
The report noted, “The Trump administration is likely to pursue a mixed economic policy that, through stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, could limit investors’ willingness to increase gold purchases in the short term.”
Bank of America strategists predict that Trump’s economic policies, such as potential trade tariffs and similar measures, may force the Federal Reserve to slow down its pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Analysts expect only two rate cuts next year, one in March and the other in June.
Despite these challenges, precious metals experts believe that gold and silver will remain well-supported in the coming year as economic uncertainties and geopolitical turmoil continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets.
According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, 56 out of 97 respondents forecast that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rate to 3.50–3.75% or lower by the end of 2025. Furthermore, 93 out of 103 economists surveyed predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 18 meeting, bringing the rate to a range of 4.50–4.25%.
Investors are now focusing on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have increased by 0.3% in November. This data could shape expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy stance.
Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital, commented: “An expected CPI number essentially gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates next week, and this could be the catalyst that gold has been waiting for.”
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs views the recent decline in gold prices as merely a fluctuation and expects the metal to resume its upward trajectory soon.
Goldman Sachs cited the following reasons for its outlook:
• Accommodative monetary policies
• Central bank purchases of gold
• A return of investors to the gold market
The bank also pointed out that during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of Russian assets by Western nations, gold emerged as an attractive alternative to the U.S. dollar. Many central banks around the world turned to gold to diversify their reserves.
Goldman Sachs stated: “We do not expect central bank demand for gold to decline. With the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates, investors will also reenter the market. We project that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.”
GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel.
If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone.
According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month.
Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%.
The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year.
Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly.
The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020.
Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks.
Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts.
Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions.
In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines.
In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050.
On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption.
The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”