Bearish reversal?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,578.21
1st Support: 5,507.10
1st Resistance: 5,629.45
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Usd500
The market is climbing a wall of worriesYesterday’s financial print in the United States revealed an uptick in inflation. For the second month of 2024, the inflation rate rose by 0.4% MoM (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024) and 3.2% YoY (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024). Meanwhile, the core inflation rose by 0.4% MoM (staying unchanged) and 3.8% YoY (showing a decrease of 0.1% versus the previous print). Considering the sticky inflation numbers, it appears very unlikely the FED will decide to cut interest rates next week during its two-day FOMC meeting. Furthermore, this problem raises questions over how fast the FED will actually proceed with easing monetary policy in the future; at the moment, it seems improbable the FED will lower interest rates before June 2024.
On a technical note, the bullish trend continues to lose momentum, and the SPX hovers overextended above the upward-sloping channel. On the daily time frame, the Stochastic oscillates in the overbought area, and MACD flattens. In addition to that, the RSI is forming a structure resembling a symmetrical triangle. Overall, the picture remains bullish, but the odds of a correction grow as the market climbs a wall of worry.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of the RSI, which has been forming a structure resembling a symmetrical triangle. A breakout to the upside will bolster a bullish case in the short term, while a breakout to the downside will strengthen a bearish case in the short term.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the VIX’s daily chart. So far, the lower trendline has not been broken (not distorting the structure of higher peaks and higher troughs).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: Last rally before correction.S&P500 may be overbought on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 72.835, MACD = 15.590, ADX = 49.520) but not yet on the 1D technical outlook as the price hasn't yet made a HH on the two month Channel Up. The 4H RSI does show us though that it is starting that HH peak sequence as it can start a LH trendline like December 14th. We are expecting this wave to peak on a +5.55% rise at 4,920 like the Higher High of December 27th, where we will short and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 4H MA200 (TP = 4,800) like the index did on the January 5th HL.
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Chinese equities falling, VIX skyrocketing, and rally stallingOvernight, multiple Chinese stock markets established new lows, setting the negative tone for the European trading session and futures markets in the United States, with all major U.S. indices diving into the negative territory ahead of the regular trading hours. So far, the SPX has failed to get through the psychological resistance of $4,800 and establish new highs. At the same time, other indices like the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Russell 2000 have been moving sideways since late December 2023. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the market’s bullish momentum continues to stall, which follows a period of extremely low VIX and cheap protection to the downside (two things that often precede a downturn in the market). As a result, we are closely monitoring an opening gap in the VIX; if the gap is not closed and the VIX continues to grow, it will strongly bolster the bearish case. The same applies to the decline in MACD, Stochastic, and RSI (plus its failure to break through 70 points) on the daily graph. In addition to that, there are signs of a double-top forming on the daily and weekly chart (not validated yet, though). Therefore, we continue to approach the market with heightened caution.
Illustration 1.01
The image shows three major Chinese stock market indices: the Hang Seng Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index. The Hang Seng Index has continuously declined since early 2018, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have declined since early 2021; the performance is measured from the all-time highs until the latest market close.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates the opening gap in the VIX, a notable event, given its increase of more than 10% from the previous close.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows the daily and weekly chart of the SPX. Yellow arrows indicate two peaks, which could potentially evolve into a double-top formation.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USA S&P 500 (US500) Index Analysis 05/01/2022Fundamental Analysis:
As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world.
Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down.
From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises.
These funds and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost deduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values.
so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values.
we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as Dow Jones and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status.
there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times .
This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi.
if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher.
Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD.
we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent.
we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times.
Technical Analysis:
we have used the Fibonacci retracement and Expansion from the low to the Highest point before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels.
There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections.
there are total of 3 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points.
there are few Resistance levels are also defined to have a better vision incase of Current Rally Continuation which eventually can be counted as the Trend reversal points
SPX 1H time frame buy setupAfter retesting previous resistance SPX can reach 4090 target.
* 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲. 𝗔𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵.
S&P500 Last hurdle but forming a 1D Golden CrossThe S&P500 index (SPX) broke above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the second time during the start of the Bear Cycle in January 2022 and the first after December 12 2022. For the past three days it is being rejected there, which makes it a strong Resistance, along with the 'Prior Lower High', which is the level we pointed out last week on our SPX report:
As you see the price followed the buy call at the bottom of the Channel Up flawlessly but now faces the 'Prior Lower High'. Until it breaks it, we are good to sell with a tight SL targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That trend-line just hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and are about to form the first 1D Golden Cross since July 09 2020. As a result, we are bullish long-term, targeting the Resistance Zone and if 4145 breaks, the August 16 2022 High at 4325.
We will only short-term sell if the index closes below the Channel Up and target 3800 (top of Support Zone 1) and if 3760 breaks target 3710 (top of Support Zone 2).
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Spx may fill the gap and crap This is what I see on the chart, make it an additional idea to yours ideas
es 12-6 update ~good afternoon,
i'm entertaining the idea of one final raid, to really shake up the bulls & initiate maximum fear in the markets.
people are talking about another covid crash, and i'm over here just doing my own thing
if we get this final 5 waves down, don't be afraid to long it ^^
i''ll drop an update if it happens, closer to the bottom of the fifth wave.
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👇
US500/SPX: Correction NeededWhat a year for SPX, this was by far the most incredible bull run I have witnessed.
The bull run can continue however I would like to see a correction in the price for discounts to buy.
Now that the majority of sellers have been taken out of the market, it could be time to start seeing those retracements in price as illustrated.
What is your view? Don't forget to leave a like and a comment.
US Stocks Early-Mid October 2021 Trade Plan [SP500]Looking at US stock market it is clear that bulls trying to defend positions.
Gap near 4440 is next target and level to hold.
US stocks market might recover during next sessions up to 4380-ish.
If bulls are strong enough to hold, we might go up to 4440 - gap level, and if close above it I will look for adding more exposure to this market.
Stay tuned
Best regards
Artem Shevelev
suckers rally. 7\21 spy update.suckers rally, calling it right now.
first area to try to short will be at the 0.887 algo target at 4366.25
if we break above, i'm out.
next area will be upon a bearish retest of the bull channel - perfectly in confluence with the bear channel we've created here.
irregular wave b vibes.
down side target = 4187
US500 IdeaG'day Guys
US500 analysis was posted on April 14. Based on the analysis, i still positive time for this pair to create a deep correction.
Today idea & Next week, i projected this pair still continue to fall until FOMC meeting.
If the result of FOMC meeting still showing a lower interest rate and bond purchasing still on ongoing, expecting this pair gonna create new higher
Let's see what happen next..
Cheers
SPX500USD ... SPX SHALLOW CORRECTION EXPECTEDUNLESS the dollar does a double correction upward (which is technically possible, and so monitor the dollar price action) ,
AT this point our preferred path is a typical shallow correction in the US-Markets .
Expect Market to continue HIGHER (MID-TERM)
Shiller v2 for Market Close Fri Jun 26, 2020 🧬🔮🧸You're speculating at record highs. The Fed's balance sheet declined for the second straight week as of Wednesday, by $12 billion to $7.1 trillion, as more foreign central banks declined to renew maturing currency swap agreements.Total liabilities for all commercial banks have ballooned to over $18 trillion or 83.7% of GDP. Without buybacks rushing through the system how will Wall Street give us the illusion of earnings growth that hasn't existed in 5 years?
