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USD/CAD

Bullish on USD/CADView is bullish for USD/CAD. Chart left clean as overlaying valuations make for a messy chart! But bond yield spread, oil and oil products, crack spread etc all indicate that the USD/CAD would be trading at a discount at 1.3850s. Looks like a lot of liquidity supporting the the USD/CAD at the bottom edge of the current range. Ideally I would like to see a stop run into this liquidity level ( 1.3850 - 1.3820s - blue box) with a quick rejection and then should see an upward march. Will be watching price action actively if it gets there.
Long
by abajwa
Ambiguous NFP and a busy week aheadLast week ended for the dollar is not the best way. Statistics on the US labor market came out slightly worse than expected: +145K new jobs outside agriculture instead of the expected +160K. On the one hand, it’s okay, but on the other hand, after +200K of employment from ADP, it seems to be not enough. On the whole, our predictions for NFPs based on statistical laws can be justified: two excesses by the fact of the forecast must be followed by lag from expectations. Perhaps the most annoying thing for us happened in the USD/CAD pair. Recall, we recommended news trading. And the news came out almost ideal for reducing the pair: relatively weak data on the USA against the background of strong data on Canada (employment +35K with a forecast of +25K). But the decline in USD/CAD was very limited and earnings of 15-20 points cannot be considered as such. Total, the week is clearly an asset to the dollar, but so far we see the growth of the dollar exclusively as an opportunity for its sales to be more expensive. And the numbers on the NFP have more likely confirmed our position than disproved. So this week we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales. The main candidates for this are the pair with the Japanese yen and the British pound. The first is interesting to us as an asset-refuge and just the entry points themselves are magnificent. As for the British pound, Brexit is confidently moving in the right direction, but the pound has lingered. Accordingly, we expect that already this week he will rush to catch up. In our opinion, another interesting asset for trading this week is gold. The inability of sellers to sell 1550 is the best confirmation of the appropriateness of buying gold. In any case, the deal is worthwhile: with relatively small stops (placed below 1440), goals can be set very ambitiously. Recall, we believe that gold should test 1800 this year. The new week promises to be quite saturated with macroeconomic statistics, especially in the USA and Great Britain. Which, again, will almost certainly be accompanied by the appearance of points for entering positions.
Short
by Trade24Fx
4
About optimism, faith, and facts, as well as trading on the newsOptimism and belief in a bright future are generally quite positive things, but you should not abuse them, because this is fraught with a separation from reality. What we observed in the last couple of days in the financial markets, in our opinion, was that separation from reality. Asset prices are as if there were no killing of Suleimani, mutual threats from the United States and Iran, Iran’s missile attacks on US military bases. All at once forgot about the billionth injection of the Fed in the Fed market, the trade wars and the slowdown of the global economy. By the way, the World Bank just a few days ago lowered its forecast for world economic growth in 2020 from 2.7% to 2.5%. But this is part of reality, from which there is no escape. Failure to think about these things does not mean that they cease to exist. That’s why we will continue to sail today against this stream of optimism and will buy gold and the Japanese yen, as well as sell the dollar. In general, the dollar today can be a very defining day. The release of statistics on the US labor market is always an occasion for a sharp increase in volatility. Given the importance of the data, our position on the NFP and the reaction of the dollar will be presented in a separate review. In general, the best option for trading today, in our opinion, is trading on the news. That is, do not try to guess what data will be released and how the dollar will react to it, but act on the fact. And there is just a great candidate for the deal - we are talking about a pair of USD/CAD. The fact is that today not only statistics on the US labor market but also on the Canadian labor market will be released. That is, a couple can undergo either a double positive (as it was a month ago) or a double negative. In any of these cases, the movement will be quite strong and unidirectional. So we offer the next trading plan for today. 1-2 minutes before the release of data in the USD/CAD pair, we place orders like BUY STOP and SELL STOP at 20 points from the current price at that time. And then we just wait for the news. If the option “bad data for the USA/good for Canada” is triggered, pick up SELL STOP. If the game has the option “good US data/bad Canada data”, BUY STOP will work. In both of these cases, it is recommended to hold the position until the end of the day. If the data come out less clear and the situation is unclear - remove orders.
by Trade24Fx
POTENTIAL BIG MOVE - USD/CAD - Triangle, Fib. Long-Term Outlook The monthly graph shows the current price point is at a major historical support/resistance. This area was a major support zone for the exchange rate in the mid-'90s. Visited again in the early '00s, 2009. but more recently, 1.32625 (+/- 200 Pips active range) is a highly contagious price point for the pair since July 1st, 2015. Since then, 1.32625 has been hit frequentyly. It is now within the tip of an Upper Triangle Formation occurring above both the 25 MA. and 50 MA (Monthly). The price is near the highly active fib support (blue) @ 1.30800 (high hit rate location). Recently, the support held up in October, November, and now trading within this triangle tip that is seen on the graph. Quick Fundamentals: USD economy numbers were better than CAD economy numbers (week of Mon- Dec-1). SP500 Index is holding up (early in the week). Possible USD upward momentum possible after looking at current Weekly DXY holding pattern which is holding above the weekly averages. TVC:DXY Within the past few months, it seems that trade sentiment seems to rise on good trade news, and cause only a hiccup in the markets when it's negative. It seems the markets have stopped worrying about an imminent recession (at least in the short term). (globally we are in one) Summary: Use this info to help you find potential trades with this pair. I'm not recommending anything other than stating the fact that this is a powerful area that has the potential to move the price in meaningful ways in the future. The current economic numbers and a few key fundamentals continue to support USD strength over CAD. Will it rise or fall? Looking forward to seeing how it plays out., Thoughts? Anything I missed? Let me know. I'll continue to update as the days/weeks/months move along. Happy trading
Long
by GStevens
USD-CAD 'The bears are only just getting started...'On the monthly Chart we have a gigantic bearish engulfing that can not be ignored, straight sell off down to key level 1.3100 (weekly level) This was projected in the 'swinging its way down to 1.31' post I uploaded! Price has since clawed its way back to 1.3200 a key level which coincides with my favoured Fibonacci levels! Shorts have been activated and are ready to run!! lets see if we can go looking for the titanic with all these confluences coming in line! If all goes well there will be multiple opportunities to milk the trade with add ons! Safe trading people!!
Short
by williamdavies