USDJPY - What's the big picture?Look at this chart of the USDJPY with weekly candles. It would make sense to at least surmise that there is a temporary top in place. Should we be looking to go long? or short? Below 116.00 should confirm the top for now. The price action from Feb 2nd is twice the average daily range. There are many possible Elliott Wave counts on this. 3 in particular that all seem to fit. 1 suggest a top, 1 suggest a shorter term pull back and renewed upside and another still, suggests a very long term top. With the daily range being so high and rejection of 121.75 to the downside... what do you expect?
Usd_jpy
USD/JPY technical analysis for the next daysAt H4 TF we have about 15 days and 4H the prices of U/J have been moved within the I. Price area.
At the II. Price Area it is a still thin of prices having been moving in. To reach a new upward momentum it needs to breakout the projected trend-line as resistance and from there a support level will be found to look for the opportunity to go long with.
An other scenario is that the price will be back to the I. Price area , in which the level at 108.642 has to be broken out.
What is within the II. Price area will be just as a "transit" station for a upward or downward moving, so I would like neither to go long, nor to go short within this area of prices.
Trade well,
Makkaba team
USD/JPY Farm Roll PreviewYen long positions on the futures market are at record highs and historically any high risk event to the dollar supports the Yen as investors seek to protect themselves from uncertainty.
Price rejecting the 50% fib level and an interesting candle formation lead to a reasonable conclusion that further downside gains are to be made this week.
Poor US news will open up a re-test of last weeks highs where as a good non farm and positive US news have scope to break the current range towards the 100% fib level.
Beware that price can break up on the several pieces of high impact US news if they are positive however the fact that it's an 'if' means that a short position which is backed by price action and investor sentiment in the futures market is likely to yield a high probability of profits.
USD/JPY Pullback before fighting to break the channelUSD/JPY interesenting signal would be to see the price breaking over the descending channel and the fibo 0.23 level from the lows in 2012-2013 and the higs in 2015, in a closer tearm using the last available fibo we find a possible pullback before fighting for the resistance in 113.94.
US Dollar Technical Outlook At Resistance! DXY!The US Dollar fell to a four-month low last week with prices testing 94.50 support on dovish FOMC meeting. But prices managed to reverse their losses with the Dollar Index posting steady gains, for the most part, this week. Prices rallied for nearly four consecutive days after falling to the 94.50 support.
The gains in the US Dollar came about as various Fed members’ speaking engagements saw most of the FOMC members coming out hawkish on interest rates, with some expecting to see a rate hike as early as April. Unlikely as it may be, the Fed speak this week showcases the view that the broader consensus is continuing to incline to more rate hikes. Economic data this week from the US saw a mixed bag with durable goods orders released yesterday falling while housing data continued to remain mixed. Today’s GDP data is unlikely to see much traction with expectations broadly for an unchanged print at 1.0%. Even if the GDP data is revised lower, with the FOMC event done with, it is unlikely to see much movement on the markets.
The week ahead will be exciting as March concludes and the markets gear up for the NFP data next week. Between now and then, the US Dollar is very likely to remain below the 96.5 – 96.0 resistance and 94.50 – 94.0 support.
US Dollar Technical Outlook
The weekly chart shows prices currently trading within last week’s range of high and low following the brief rejection of prices near 94.50 – 94.0 on the weekly basis. There is a high likelihood that this week’s price action could close with an inside bar, which is likely to signal a breakout. To the upside, resistance at 96.5 on the weekly is a level to watch, which if gives way could see the US Dollar rally back to the old resistance near 98.0. To the downside, with the support level coinciding with last week’s low, the 94.5 – 94.0 support will be necessary as a break below this level will see prices fall to 93.0 – 92.5.
US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart likely to form an inside bar
On the daily chart, price action is currently on the resistance level of 96.5 – 96.5. A bearish confirmation here could see prices start to decline but trade within the ranges specified. Further price action evolvement will be based on a break of one of the two levels, but there is a possibility for another leg to the downside to test the lower support at 94.0, testing 14th and 15th September lows.
The 4-hour chart has signaled a reversal with prices forming a doji and a subsequent break to the downside near the 96.5 – 96.0 resistance. This should most likely see the US Dollar continue to push lower, but as with the daily chart, only a break of the lower support or the resistance above will confirm further direction in the US Dollar Index.
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USD/JPY Breakout Set UpTrading a break of the 76.4% fib or 50% fib level is likely yo yield a favourable trade.
So what is going to cause a break above or below these levels?
BOJ chief Kuroda is speaking in the early hours of Monday morning while the Chinese Trade Balance is out sometime on Tuesday.
The Kuroda speech is likely to have more sway in moving price action however if it doesn't the Chinese data may just do it.
The BOJ is notoriously defensive of the Yen and is not secret that a weaker Yen is their preference (Japan is an export driven nation so a weak currency boosts competitiveness).
USD/JPY - Bearish Bat PatternOn the USD/JPY Daily chart we have a potential short opportunity at the D leg completion of a Bat Pattern.
The price reversal zone on this pair is between 124.194 & 125.235
The PRZ zone is only a guideline of where we will be paying attention for trade setups and opportunity's.
Potential targets for the Bat Pattern placed at the .382% and .618% retracement of the C to D move.
Stop loss would be placed above X leg structure resistance.
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