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Usd_jpy

USD/JPY Slowly But Surely Heading NorthUJ has been in a nice uptrend for some time; although this is a weak bearish t/k crossover, price is slowly returning. I'm looking to take profit to the cloud, reset the SL, and watch for the breakthrough or rejection. * Update on UJ; the trade was working out exactly as predicted and it was up 22 pips from posting...until...the Japanese made an unannounced BOJ rate change. Once that happened, the UJ took a nose dive. I sincerely hope anyone who followed this idea used a sensible stop loss; mine kicked in around -48 pips. To say I wasn't too happy about what happened would be an understatement.
Long
by CloudVaping
2
SHORT USD/JPY. YEN PAIRS MAY CRASH STRONGLY. HERE'S WHY1) SP500 on ALL TIME HIGHS, MEGAPHONE pattern, GLOBAL RISK OFF 2) Investors confidence extremely BULLISH 3) YEN INDEX is technically EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT, ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BOLLINGER BANDS on daily basis 4) USD is EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT aswell as US growth has been EXAGGERATED. Wage growth is WEAK, and INFLATION EXPECTATIONS are really WEAK, so FED won't raise rates until 2016 or later against market expectations of June-September 2015. When market adjusts to this new reallity, USD will crash heavily. 5) Non-commercial longs for DOLLAR INDEX at IMM/Chicago Futures Markets are at multiyear highs. Market is EXTREMELY LONG USD, which implies huge asymmetrical risks for USD. Any BETTER than exp data will barely push USD up, but any WEAKER than exp data will damage severely bullish USD trend. 6) China data is WORSENING and WORSENING everday, trade balance weakens, inflation weakens, it won't take much time till market aknowledges that global growth is really SCREWED (+OIL on multiyear lows, indication of low growth) and sooner than later this will spread PANIC amongst market participants causing global RISK OFF. This is why in my honest opinion, there is a lot of RISK/REWARD on shorting specially USD/JPY and ris appetite driven pair AUD/JPY. Tip: Don't wait to market crash to get into this trade. Do it now, when close to all time highs on SP500/Nasdaq, and synthethic YEN INDEX, where decision for exiting shorts is easy.
Short
by seb
3
USD/JPY - sell ideaNext week we should observe testing Supply Zone. Should closely watch how the price will behave when it reaches the edge of the base. It is worth to correlate this with the MACD because at the same time slowly draws the signal pro sales there. If the price is declined again in this area, taking a short position will be "the best way out of this situation" :). Looking through the prism of the MACD, higher TF should go to the other side what means below zero. This should result in a fairly strong downward motion, delimited by the base demand level around 101.05/25.
Short
by virgoinvest.pl
USDJPY- UP our DOWN ?Technical Analysis PART: bearish 1. This pair has been wedging down. 2. It has also been in a downward channel. This downward channel certainly can break the horizontal channel. 3. 101.34 resistance level has been broken several times. 4. What else is bearish? PART:bullish 1. Horizontal channel has been broken to the downside but has always come back. 2.Last time it was wedging it was wedging in a triangle and broke up(but the wedging wasn't to the downside though), now it is wedging and it could also break up. 3. What else is bullish? PART:X It is always useful to take a look at weekly chart and other JPY pair's weekly charts, to see the long term resistances trend violations etc.
by Wizard
General Market Outlook - June 21st, 2014Note: I got rid of NZD/USD and USD/CHF. NZD/USD pretty much correlates with AUD/USD while USD/CHF correlates with EUR/USD, so I figured it was redundant to analyze both pairs. ------------------------------------------------- Interesting Pairs: AUD/USD - Bearish - Price tested the broken trend line last week and bounced down - Price retested the same price level this week and started to bounce down - Personally, I wouldn't short now because it would effectively be chasing. It dropped about 50 pips so far, so you would need a wide stop to enter this trade now. - Maybe if it retraced to 0.94, I would consider it but AUD/USD isn't high on my "to trade" list right now. GBP/USD - Bearish - Although not a perfect butterfly (aka bearish gartley), price did bounce off the 161.8% fib level this week around 1.705X - Since price closed above the 1.7000 level on Friday, I expect bulls to have another push towards 1.705X or even 1.71. - So if you missed the entry at 1.705X (like I did), don't worry, you 'should' get another chance - Although the level of interest is at 1.705X, I'd prefer loading the majority of my short position closer to the 1.71 level if we get there. USD/CAD - Bullish - Price broke out of the descending triangle on Friday (magenta) but this bear run looks exhausted, USD/CAD has been dropping for most of the last 3 weeks already. - Currently price is sitting at the 1.075X level, which happens to be where the (blue) trend line is, so loading a few longs here wouldn't be a bad idea. - However, the level that I'm interested in is the 1.07 level, which is where the (red) trend line intersects with a previously broken resistance level. XAG/USD - Bearish - Price broke the blue descending trend line this week and surged upwards but until we break 21, I have doubts about this bull run. - Take a look at the red descending trend line, price fell around $23 the first time and $22 the second time, what are the odds the price will fall around $21 this time? - Each time price has dropped in the past, it went all the way down to the support level at $18.6X. - I'm not saying it's going to drop back down to support again this time but at the very least, I expect a retrace back down to the $20 level to test the broken trend line. After that, who knows? ------------------------------------------------- Developing Pairs: USD/JPY - Waiting for breakout - The only thing that I can see right now is a symmetrical triangle, which is a neutral pattern formation until it breaks out - So until it does, I'm sitting on the sidelines for this pair ------------------------------------------------- Confusing Pairs: EUR/USD - Conflicting short and long term views Long term - I see a potential bearish flag on the chart, which signals continuation drop is coming? Short term - A retrace wouldn't be out of the question for a healthy bear run but it would have to break the bear flag in order to do so, which conflicts with the long term view. Also, price never hit 1.4000 so that's a bull target that was never reached. ------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.
by ForexWeeklyAnalysis
1
The currency forecast poll is a useful tool.I use the currency forecast poll and compare my own view on the market with the experts who get paid for their forecasts. In this case I have used the USDJPY. I believe that the technicals signal a move down to about 101.5. Here is what the pros say: www.fxstreet.com I also use the awesome oscillator. When we see the awesome oscillator move below the zero line, We should see the price is setting up for a movement down with momentum and this view would be bolstered by the moving average.
Short
by maccabean