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USDARS

USDARS long this is a perfect trend ,huh? Let profits RUN!Strategy Bullish Higher Highs Higher Lows Retracement (10%) Price above Quartely VWAP Price above Decade VWAP Volatility Bullish Maket Sentiment 98% Bullish Yearly Trend Bullish Quartely Trend Bullish Monthly Bullish Daily Bullish 4H Bullish 2H Bullish 1H Bullish 30 min. Bullish Portfolio Strategy: Volatility/Risk(Per Trade) Position Sizing Risk Management 2: Trailing Stop (Donchian/Turtle Trader)/N(Volatility(Per Day) or (Quarter)*(risk per Trade) William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected. "Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual." The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday. The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa IBOV . Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance. A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy. Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme. Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013. Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years. Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential. The Mexican peso USDMXN jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high. Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso USDCOP by 0.8%. Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso USDCLP added 0.7% and Peru's sol USDPEN rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday. Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%. The Brazilian real (BRBY) USDBRL gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high. The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House. Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates. "Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard. Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain. The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa IBOV . World's largest meat packer JBS SA JBSS3 jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing. Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan. YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month. Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon. China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
USDARS LONG USDARS BULLISH SINCE YEARS See the chart The Argentine peso has had a tumultuous life. In the 1980s it was temporarily dethroned by a new currency called the austral. An arranged marriage with the dollar in 1991 produced some years of bliss but ended in a ruinous divorce. More recently, the peso has suffered the humiliation of being tagged the worst-performing currency in emerging markets. Now an Argentine economist running for president is proposing to put the currency out of its misery once and for all. Javier Milei, who’s also a congressman, says that to quash triple-digit inflation, the nation should formally adopt the dollar. “The peso melts like ice in the Sahara Desert,” Milei likes to say, alluding to the currency’s rapid depreciation: It’s lost half of its value against the dollar just in the past year. Trend Bullish Whatever trend trading methode you know,it works here!
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
USDARS SUPER BULLISHTechnical Analysis Trend Bullish Weekly Long Daily Long 10H Long 4H Long 2 H Long 30min. LONG Strategy Bullish My Trading Conditions and my Rules(This are the Rules I follow,and they are no financial adivice for others) Trade Consditions Higher Highs Higher Lows Trade Rules: Taking only Buy Signals Trade Rule 2: Only Buy Signals Trade Rule 3: Exit only, if a Pullback my Stops hit. Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%). Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly NZX Trades Slightly Higher New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low Argentina Indicators Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23 Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23 Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23 Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23 Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23 Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23 Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23 Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22 Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22 The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
What's next for the Argentinian Peso? What's next for the Argentinian Peso? Over the past year, the Argentinian Peso has last 20.3% against the US dollar. A combination of spiraling government debt, political unrest, and the Coronavirus have seen Argentina fall further into recession. The deprecation of the Argentinian Peso came when the government defaulted on their debt for the 9th time – three times being in this century alone. The country officially defaulted on their debt on May 22nd, when it missed a $503 Million interest payment. Argentina's President, Alberto Fernandez, said they wouldn't be able to resume payments to the IMF for another five years. Currently, Argentina has a debt burden of $323 Billion at the end of 2019, which is equivalent to 88% of the country's GDP. Alongside this, political instability and the Coronavirus have to lead the Argentinian Peso lower. There are concerns that hyperinflation will ensue in Argentina, similar to what has happened in Venezuela. Drawing lessons from Venezuela The poster child for Hyperinflation, Venezuela's fall came swift as a boom in oil prices influenced government policy. Prices from 2010-2014 were in the $100 range for Brent Crude, and Venezuela decided to fund their social systems to combat poverty and inequality. However, prices in 2015 plummeted to $50, and the Venezuelan could not pay for their social services. Furthermore, similar to how the Australia dollar is vaguely correlated to the commodities it exports, the Venezuelan Bolivar plummeted as oil exports accounted for 90% of the government's revenues. To pay for their social welfare system, the President at the time, Nicolas Madura, decided that the solution was to print more money, increasing the supply of the Bolovair in the market. It was not the solution. This caused rapid inflation in the country. In attempts to reduce this, Madura decided to make it more difficult to exchange the Bolovair into the US. However, in the Black Market, it US dollar was still being freely traded. By 2018, the exchange rate for the 1 USD was 250,000 Bolivares. But by the end of the year, the government decided to devalue the official rate to the black market rate, sending the official value of the Bolivar down 95%. Inflation reached a peak of 130,000% in 2018. Argentina, while no technically at hyperinflation, might as well have their inflation numbers be rendered useless. Currently, inflation in Argentina sits at around 53.8%. While Argentina does not have the same problem as Venezuela (dependent on a sole export), they have seen an increase in selling for the Argentinian Peso as institutional investors sell and devalue the country's bonds. Currently, the Peso is "free-floating," however, the government has imposed strict restrictions and steep taxes on officially exchanging the currency. However, just like Venezuela, there is a black market for the US dollar, which trades at a steep discount compared to the official rate. Currently, the official exchange rate is 72 Pesos for 1 USD Dollar. However, the exchange rate on the Black Market is around 120 pesos for 1 US Dollar. There may be a possibility that the Argentinian government devalues the currency, like what the Venezuelan government did. However, this was not Argentina's first rodeo with inflation. Pre 2002, the Argentine government was battling inflation problems and social and political unrest, like what is currently happening in Argentina. However, back then, a Peg was implemented to the US dollar. Once they abandoned the Peg in 2002, the value of the US dollar against the Peso skyrocketed 400%. The nation has been battling with inflation since the 1970's, where the government decided to increase the money supply by printing money, similar to Venezuela. The average inflation between 1975 and 1990 became 300%. So, we can draw similarities between what happened in Venezuela and what is currently happening to Argentina. If we see the Argentinian government devalue the currency to actual market value, we may see the USD/ARS skyrocket and inflation go rampant in Argentina.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
A COUNTRY almost in DEFAULT (again). Who's next?--- Please if you find this informative don't forget to give a like. Thank you! --- Just redrawing old ideas from a year ago... Nothing to redraw in fact due it seems they are going to default sooner or later for 19th time in history. You can check for yourself in the related idea just a year ago how the country situation has not improved. This is just a reflection of the symptoms that can already be felt in other countries of the world. Almost all emerging countries suffering high inflation and a continued devaluation of its currency against the dollar, this won't finish well. Other countries to watch: Turkey, Brazil, Australia... all against the dollar that would fall the last. What are your thoughts? Here please you can find a little bit of knowledge and fresh news I wanted to share with you. www.youtube.com Keep safe!
by harribatu
USDTRY: Monthly triangle forming, fundamentals favor upside$USDTRY is one pair that is likely to trend up over the long term, but it's currently stuck in a huge monthly triangle. Recent action is interesting since price sits at a confluence of 'inside trendlines', speed fan 75% retracement level and linear regression channel 2nd standard deviation, as well as retracing to the mid point of a recent 'Range Expansion' up day two bars back. If buyers manage to keep prices over 5.6454, then it would be a sign of strength, since then the daily could start trending once again. Problem is the swap costs in this pair makes it hard to trade into big trends with leverage, so you would be better off not trading it, but if you live in Turkey you might look into moving funds to USD if you earn income in TRY, unless support breaks down here, then you can probably hold off from doing so for the time being. It's a similar situation with the Argentinian currency, fundamentals of the country make the currency lose value over time...in a big way, because of the reckless financing of insane spending via money printing. A big problem in countries with corrupt governments like ours. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Argentina Financial Crisis Fears ArisesFears once again loomed all over Argentina in a financial crisis rushing to the fore. And over the weekend, President Mauricio Macri had a stunning rout in the primary elections. At the same time, investors dropped its bonds, stocks, and currency en masse in a selloff. And it left Wall Street thinking that the crisis-prone country will have another default. In addition to that, the upset is widely seen as a preview of the presidential vote in October. And it suddenly opens the doors to the possibility of a more protectionist government will take power come December. Also, it might untangle the hard-won gains that Macri build-up to retrieve international markets’ trust. Then, it intensified worries Alberto Fernandez, his populist rival, and Cristina Fernandez, his running mate, will attempt to renegotiate its debts and agreements with the International Monetary Fund. In the coming year, the foreign-currency billion debt is due. Edwin Gutierrez is the head of emerging-market sovereign debt at Aberdeen Asset Management. And he stated, “The market is starting to price in default” and it “is unwilling to give Fernandez the benefit of the doubt.” Debt Payments of Argentina Meanwhile, looking at the credit-default swaps, it suggests that traders are expecting a 75% likelihood that Argentina will suspend its debt payments for about five years. Last Friday, this chance was only about 49%. Then, its dollar-denominated government bonds wiped out about 25% on average. As a result, it dragged down prices to as low as 55 cents on the dollar. Yields, on the other hand, on shorter-maturity notes surged above 35%. Moreover, in Argentina, the peso tumbled as high as 25%, hitting a new record-low 60 per dollar on Monday. Also, the Merval stock index had the most lost in the intraday trading. On Sunday, Macri expected to trail his rival by just a few points and pummeled the polls, with Fernandez in a 15-point lead.
by Financebroker
2
$USDARSFX_IDC:USDARS A ver a ver... Varias cosas por acá, muy interesante la situación que se está dando con el Dólar. Desde que rompió el triángulo simétrico se desplomó fuerte y cruzó el Kumo de Ichimoku como si nada. En estos días tocó el retroceso de 0,236 de Fibonacci y volvió a subir levemente. Con ya dos días de suba se acercó al Kumo, lo ingresó levemente y luego fue a tocar el Tenkan. A partir de ahí comenzó a retroceder hasta afuera del Kumo donde está oscilando. Lo que llama la atención es el MACD cambiando de concavidad en el día de hoy. Por el momento no es nada grave, pero si se acerca a la línea de señal puede implicar un momento de compra, lo cual implicaría una nueva suba para esta moneda con respecto al Peso Argentino.
by TradingToro
$USDARSFX_IDC:USDARS Sube levemente en el principio de la semana y recupera lo que vino cayendo desde EL 12/06. Esta suba no representa mucho, ya que es muy leve y mantener la tendencia a la baja de estas últimas semanas. En caso de que continúe en los próximos días podría llegar hasta 43,2 (línea de retroceso de Fibonacci de 0,618). Justificación del pequeño rebote del día de hoy puede ser la zona de soporte marcada por el rectángulo de color rosa entre 42,5 y 42,7. El viernes cerró por encima del límite superior de esta zona de soportes. Hoy también abrió sobre el límite superior de esta zona que ya fue testeada a la baja y a la suba al menos en tres momentos marcados con las flechas azules, por lo que estamos en una zona de soporte/resistencia fuerte. Podemos esperar que con volumen rompa a la baja para continuar con la tendencia bajista pero para esto posiblemente debamos esperar a que termine esta recuperación. MACD continúa a la baja, pero RSI rebota sobre la línea de 30%, lo cual resulta positivo ya que no indicaría una sobrecompra y además afianza la idea de ser un rebote saludable para luego continuar a la baja.
by TradingToro
ARGT: Trend is upMacri's counter offensive move, in response to Cristina Kirchner's presidential formula strategy was a brilliant one, picking Pichetto as his Vice-President for the upcoming October elections. Pichetto is a man from the Peronist party, but who is not afraid of bipartisan politics in Congress, and who wants to work for the President in Congress, and not force government shutdown. Many dislike this trait of his, but him being a strong defender of small and medium enterprises, and most likely helping Macri lead the country towards proper capitalism, with some luck, is what got investors bullish again. The $USDARS pair dropped rapidly, and the 2-Week timeframe uptrend signal I had forecasted in it failed. The Dollar didn't hit 49-50 in time, despite the Central Banks pathetic actions in the last year, and Macri's political antics might have turned the trend in it for the next 16-19 weeks. $USDARS might sink towards 37 again, if things go really well. If Cristina were to win, Alberto Fernandez is a man who might keep her extreme pseudo-socialist ways in check, or at least this is what investors seem to think, given the reaction of markets to the formula. Hopefully, whoever wins, stops the ridiculous spending, and insane taxing, which is choking anyone trying to build ANY kind of business here...since small and medium sized enterprises are the main sources of jobs in the country atm. This might help the currency do better, and reduce inflation. For this, government needs to reduce its size, which is not too likely to occur if Peronists win this time around, but also not extremely likely to occur if Macri is elected again, either. My reccomendation is to not own too many Argentinian assets, overall, but I'm slightly optimistic going forward. Best of luck to us all, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:ARGTLong
by IvanLabrie
$USDARS DOLAR MAYORISTA ARGENTINA CHANCE NUEVA CORRIDA CAMBIARIAFX_IDC:USDARS EL DOLAR MAYORISTA RECONOCIO EN MOVIMIENTO ABC DE CORRECCION ONDA 2 DE 3 ALCISTA EN EL 61,8% DE CORRECCION DE FIBONACCI EN $41,35 PARA REACCIONAR. EL DATO INFLACION MINORISTA 4,7% DE MARZO , MUY POR ENCIMA DE LO ESPERADO EN ARGENTINA, QUE ELEVO LA MARCA ANUAL A 54,7%, DEMUESTRA LO FUERA DE CONTROL EN QUE SE ENCUENTRA INFLACION. ESTA SITUACION TERMINARIA TECNICAMENTE EN GENERANDO UN "GOLPE DE MERCADOS", NUEVA SALIDA EN ONDA 3 -3 ALCISTA PARA EL BILLETE MAYORISTA, QUE LO ELEVE RAPIDAMENTE HACIA EL TOPE DEL NIVEL DE BANDA DE FLOTACION, 50-51 PESOS DE NIVEL DE RESISTENCIA, MANTENIENDO UN OBJETIVO DE MEDIANO PLAZO HACIA 63 PESOS. TECNICAMENTE MANTENGO EXPECTATIVAS DE UN COLAPSO ECONOMICO FINANCIERO CAMBIEARIO PARA ARGENTINA ANTES DE LAS ELECCIONES, LA NUEVA PIERNA ALCISTA DEVALUATORIA EN MERCADOS EMERGENTES ( LA MAYOR EN LA DECADA) POTENCIARA EL CICLO ADVERTIDO.
Long
by compa1968
1
USDARS: Might be about to trend up sharply...As everyone has been saying, $USDARS will likely get close to the $50 mark, a 2W timeframe Time@Mode signal kicked off, and it's already active for 2 bars, out of 10 that are forecasted as part of the uptrend. This rally has 3 possible targets which are laid out on chart, valid for as long as the time lasts, or as long as $USDARS trades above the 37 mark. I wouldn't reccomend to hold ARS for long if you have income in pesos. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6