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USDARS

Market recap for week of Aug 27-Monday=Markets reacted to Fed governor Jerome Powell's speech on Friday which knocked the USD lower. SPX makes a new high. While political turmoil in the Australian govt weaken the AUD but the recovered towards the end of the trading week -Emerging markets currencies were pretty weak last week with majority of them plus one percent -WSJ reports issues on China & US that 40% could be dealt with immediately but 20% are intractable & non-negotiable. uk.reuters.com www.cnbc.com -US and Mexico are closing in a trade agreement between the two countries, Trump tweets "A big Trade Agreement with Mexico could be happening soon" -Profit for China's industrial firms up 16.2% to 75B in June, missed estimates. -Australia's new Prime Minsiter Scott Morrison makes changes to his cabinet. -Germany's business climate index climbs to 103.8 improving off of July's reading www.reuters.com -Turkey's Finance Minister Berat Albayrak to meet with France's Finance Minister -Iran's economy minister was removed from his post by Iran's parliament. www.cnbc.com -Tuesday -Stocks again strengthens due to Positive sentiment on a new NAFTA deal www.businessinsider.com.au -China gains control of the Yuan's slide against the USD once they announced reintroducing the counter-cyclical factor in setting the rate each day. -French President Macron comments on Brexit deal, will not make a deal at expense of EU's integrity but respects Uks decision. -Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland to head to US for negotiations today. -Trump comments that he will rejects China's efforts to negotiate a deal. Chinese officials want to suspend talks until after elections in November. -Trump to begin his emergency agriculture plan after Labor Day. www.wsj.com -UK's Prime Minister Theresa May comments on ongoing Brexit negotiations. Mean while Trade Secretary Liam Fox is in Singapore talking about UK inclusion into TPP's Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement. They are taking credit for the trade deal. www.cnbc.com -Wednesday -US consumer confidence strong reading in August 133.4, Trumps tweets a story from CNBC -WSJ interviews Dallas Fed Pres Robert Kaplan. Expects 2 more hikes this year and another 2 next year www.wsj.com -China creates a way for its bonds to be included in global indexes. Another attempt to rid the US dollar as the global juggernaut. China Premier Li comments will tighten intellectual property rules. www.cnbc.com uk.reuters.com -Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio claims nation may break the EU's rule of breaching its 3% public deficit limit. -EU's lending sector see's improvement -US states that for a deal to be reach with Canada Friday will be the deadline. -Senate confirms Richard Clarida to become Federal Reserve vice chairman. -2nd estimate of GDP data release 4.2% increased, a 0.1 percentage point greater than the previous release of data back in July -Florida's race for governor is determined between Andrew Gillum a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders while GOP runner will be Ron DeSantis one who has defended Trump. www.wsj.com -Brexit deal as a date set for a deadline for an agreement Oct 18. Bloomberg reports they may extend it to mid Nov. www.bloomberg.com -Consultancy group wood Mackenzie forecasts India to beat out China for oil demand. www.cnbc.com -South Korea's government proposes largest budget increase in a decade. www.wsj.com -Thursday -Greater than expected draw for Crude Supplies saw Crude oil prices gain a good percentage on Wednesday -News out of Europe as EU negotiator Michel Barnier spoke some positive words for cutting a deal with the UK , the EURGBP had a high to low range of 1.51% price movement. -Now it is the Argentina's peso turn to have large down move against the USD dollar, President Macri asked the IMF to speed up its delivery of a $50B bailout. The USDARS surged over 20% on the headlines. www.reuters.com - Corporate profits jump to 16.1% in Q2 from a year earlier, largest year-over-year gain in six years. www.wsj.com -President Trump is providing some relief for countries on steel & aluminum quotas. www.reuters.com -Friday -Trump threatens more tariffs on China imports. According to Bloomberg he plans to impose another $200 billion more. A lot of other thoughts also coming from Trump linking capital gains taxes to inflation. Also to may withdraw from WTO if it doesn't shape up. twitter.com -Emerging market currencies have been the focus this week as Lira, Argentine peso and Rand all losing again this week against the USD -German Finance minister Olaf Scholz comments hard to tell if there will be a Brexit agreement. uk.reuters.com -EU economic sentiment down to 111.6 points in August from 112.1 in July. uk.reuters.com -Oil surplus looks to be lowering as traders are expecting a more losses in supply due to the Iran sanctions. Atlantic Basin crude supplies have nearly doubled in lower supply. This is oil that has not found a buyer yet. uk.reuters.com -China's manufacturing PMI up for july 51.3 vs a 51.2 from July. Exports shrinks for third strength month, while a rise in inventories of finished goods. www.cnbc.com -Brazil's economy grew with GDP reading for 2nd qtr up 0.2% from 1st qtr. Despite a trucker strike. uk.reuters.com
by schmidtke_jake
USDARS: Fellow Argentinians, sadly the dollar rally continues...The target here is big, but it could go even higher depending on how it acts. I'd reccomend to divest positions in local equities and bonds, and get exposure to US equities and the dollar, or pairs like the dollar/yen. After this next top, we could see a bigger correction in the dollar accross the board though, so I want to be ready to capture the reversal, in particular by going long gold once we have full confirmation, which may come by September. Best of luck to us all, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
Merval for foreign investors: Interesting risk/rewardI would like to point out the positive risk/reward the Argentinian stock market presents currently. I will keep adding to my savings in the local market when viable. I would say it looks quite good, even for foreign investors. I had been expecting the government to make progress with their infrastructure plan, and it seems like we will being seeing some movement in that regard, which should give immediate upside to banks and a few other stocks. I would reccomend getting involved with the likes of BCBA:$BMA, BCBA:$FRAN, BCBA:$GGAL, BCBA:$CRES, BCBA:$IRSA, among other names like BCBA:$AUSO, BCBA:$CTIO, to name a few. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
INDEX:IARLong
by IvanLabrie
ARSUSD: Hold pesos, term deposits yield 17% per yearI'd hold pesos now, personally. As part of my currency holdings. I wouldn't be in USD if possible, and would prefer other assets, like foreign currencies, EEM shares vs SPY shorts, TLT longs, gold/silver/bitcoin/ethereum, undervalued selected stocks, TSLA shares, VLKAY shares, perhaps the new COIN etf shares once they are released, Argentinian stocks on corrections or dips, names like BMA, CRES, IRSA are my favorites. I'm out of them, but looking to rebuy on dips. People are terrified, they fear a crisis, they fear the local currency and stocks, they fear Trump...Many are closing businesses they recently opened, out of fear of the government's actions but I think it's a sentiment extreme and should be faded. I remain optimistic. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCARS: If in Argentina, buy some Bitcoin each monthIf you have saved money in metals, dollars, or stocks, you're in more or less good shape relative to the peso, but, Bitcoin will outperform most other markets, and will be a great store of wealth, for at least 15 to 30% of your wealth. You can save each month and add to your positions in BTC, or simply allocate some of your speculative resources to it for the long term. If we get any kind of correction we can add to it, but it's likely to keep trending higher and higher, so don't miss the boat if you haven't bought in yet. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6
USDARS: Next up leg startingI think it's fairly certain to see more upside in USDARS right away. If you own pesos and live in Argentina,it's wise to sell them for silver/gold/dollars periodically. Now is a good time. I reccomend splitting with a bigger weight on USD bills, due to gold and silver volatility. Right now, the trade favors dollar strength, so you'd increase your dollar holdings next. You can rebalance this portfolio periodically, or even go back to pesos, and use term deposits to earn interest while the Peso strengthtens (usually down legs last a 1-3 months). Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Update, we broke the key levelThis doesn't bode well for my local currency, the Argentine Peso. It's possible this week triggers a weekly time at mode uptrend signal, that forecasts a rally to at least 16.052 within ten weeks, starting with this week as #1. With the fundamental events this week, it's possible this is the start of the acceleration and breakout of this range, specially now that RgMov has shifted into an uptrend in the daily chart, and that we're above the fundamental key levels originated from local events (presidential speeches). Good luck to us all (mostly Argentinian residents that have to deal with hyperinflation). Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Confirmed a daily uptrend in placeMy local currency is in terrible shape, and has confirmed a daily uptrend as per the RgMov signal on chart. You can see the key levels associated to speeches by the Argentinian president Mauricio Macri, and how price action has moved between these levels so far. I anticipate a breakout of this level above, and a continued rally in this currency pair. If you took my advice and bought dollars, and/or gold/silver with your pesos, you're doing well. Keep at it, Good luck, and brace yourselves if you live here. Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
LONG USDTRY & USDRUB: CARRY V $ PAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE NXT WKUSD vs Carry: 1. Yield vs USD - G10 - AUD NZD; EM - BRL, ARS, TRY is likely to continue its downside pain into next week as dollar denominated short term interest rates (STIR) spiked (after hawkish Yellen comments - see attached post) to pre-brexit highs (30D Fed Funds steeper and Implying hikes now up at P=33% Sept, P=59.1 Dec, P=92.1% 2016) which as you can see had a highly correlated depreciative effect on yield ccys on Friday which imo will continue to see USD sought and carry supplied into next week. 2. Looking further into september/ until the Fed meeting, a firm beat in the US jobs report remains key for any sustained readjustment higher in USD vs yield.. as will firm data in general after Augusts very lacklustre data performance. - The broad commodity complex coming under continued pressure after its recent topside (USD appreciation driven or otherwise) will also help the long USD vs carry positioning for the month. Any topside in the commods complex will likely dampen the above effects which will make watching micro commmod market developments key in selecting which ccys are likely to be the best under-performers vs the dollar. Top Trades - Long USDTRY & Long USDRUB on Oil swings lower: 1. USDTRY - Recent comments from TRY Officials, asking for a "rapid" reduction in interest rates to boost growth and employment AND the 25bps reduction in the overnight lending rate (8.25% vs 8.50%) last week make TRY shorts particularly interesting as speculative fwd differential positioning could see USDTRY rip higher this month, particularly as it is one of the few non-commod export driven carry ccys which shields the long usdtry trade from the above mentioned continued commod environment topside possible which may lag gains. 2. USDRUB - A particularly effective way to play this long USD position would be to short RUB on any southward movements in Oil as this combined with interest rate flows leaving the currency for USD will likely promote a two-pronged movement lower in the Russian currency making it particularly rewarding.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading