Usdaudshort
Temporarily lightening USD long AUD shortAs an Aussie investor with a lot of securities denominated in USD (US markets, Gold), and with brokerage paying an extra 1% on USD (4.3%) vs AUD (3.3%) on cash balances, managing my exposure to the USD has a meaningul impact on the portfolio’s performance.
in this chart, I use a combination of Ehlers’ adaptive indicators, volatility bands and 100-week moving average to assess probability of upside/downside so I can increase or lighten my USD exposure.
At the end of March, I see 5.4% downside vs 2.5% upside, and support around 1.42, resistance at 1.55.
Therefore I will sell 1/3 of my USDAUD position to reduce risk, and look to reenter next month closer to 1.42 assuming support holds.
Long AUDUSD (flipped view)This is a flipped view of AUDUSD, that to me gives a better picture of the pair. Right now it double topped and in previous times on this pair a double top/bottom has been respected. A rising wedge has also formed and a false breakout. Right now it broke out and is retest. Stop loss is a bit above the previous highs and take profit is at a point of major support.
USD/AUD SELL SETUPTHIS IS MY BIAS ON USD/AUD .
FIRST OF ALL WE HAVE SEEN A BIG BULLISH MOVE ON THIS PAIR FOR AROUND 500 PIPS.
AS HE HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR MANY DAYS IT NECESSARY FOR PRICE TO RETRACE,
WHERE WE WOULD FALL AGAIN IN THIS WEDGE.
AND IF WE LOOK AT THE TRENDLINE IN THE WEDGE, WE COULD BE TAPPING THIS WITH ONE MORE 3TH BEARISH TOUCH WHAT WOULD RESULT THAT PRICE WOULD GO DOWN.
BECAUSE I THINK PRICE JUST MADE A FAKEOUT FOR MARKET MAKERS TO GRAP SOME MORE LIQUIDITY A THEN REVERSE TO THE DOWNSIDE.
& WE ALSO HAVE NFP COMING, THAT I THINK WILL HELP PUSH PRICE LOWER.