Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus.
The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%.
Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month.
Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
USDBRL
USDBRL Possible Long
Possible Long in USDBRL, with a good target. This is not only technical analysis, but combined with the idea that USD Index will start to increasce against other currencies that was performing well. Plus the actual strong left governemt can cause more inflation and investors-run to dollar safety.
USD/BRL: A REJECTION IS EXPECTED.Hello traders,
Welcome to this quick update on USD/BRL in a 3-hour timeframe.
The USDBRL is likely to form a bearish triple-top which might bring the price down from $4.99 to $4.85. The RSI is already at the oversold zone and it is a strong indication of a bearish move.
I am bearish on USDBRL. What is your POV on this chart? Let me know in the comments section.
Thank you
Regards,
Team Dexter.
USD/BRLFOREXCOM:USDBRL price is at a major resistance zone and seems to be forming a double top on the daily time frame. Price should start heading down. Worst case it breaks the daily zone and hits the Monthly descending trendline (red). Price is currently overbought on the RSI and Bollinger Bands so there is a high probability it will go down.
Emerging market currencies to outperform G10 in 2023With the global economy showing more resilience and the Fed slowing its pace of tightening, we believe EM currencies can outperform relative to G10 peer currencies this year. Attractive real yields should result in market participants accumulating exposure to developing currencies, while our assumption for contained banking sector stresses should lead to improved risk appetite
dollarJust to record that the chance of the dollar falling is great! After this breakout of this accumulation and the straight support, the price is already indicating a downtrend. Making the tops and bottoms lower and lower. We need confirmation of the breakout of 4.58 reais to establish a downtrend. Strong buying region in the region of 4 reais and fibo.
As clear as mudA somewhat confused picture has emerged over the past few days on the USD/BRL chart. I have what looks like a triple top on the monthly and weekly charts, which any chartist will tell you is BEARISH. But…. Over the past couple of days on the daily chart we have what looks like a double bottom which has just completed, which is bullish short-term pattern – so what does this mean and more importantly how do I trade it??
This is always a bit tricky to deal with, but one thing is clear, when a bearish triple top has been formed you would expect the market to start dropping like a stone and if the price action is NOT doing what we would expect it to do that is a major cause for concern. However, it is possible that this is merely a return to point of break out – isn’t it?? Mm, well it could be BUT the market has started to nibble through the neckline at 4.8947. We have yet to see a close above this point but it looks like we might do so today as the moves higher near term look directional. So, what to do? Firstly, I would consider just plain exiting the position or at the very least tightening the stops.
It also helps to have some basic rules in place and one of my rules is that the trend prevails. I tend to look at the monthly chart to get a grasp on the long-term trend. First thing to note on this market is that the long-term bull trend remains intact and the second thing to note is that the market appears to have reversed short term just ahead of the 55-week ma at 4.5235. OK, this would suggest that maybe this near-term bounce higher might have some legs. My second rule is that to completely negate the triple top we have to retrace more than 50% and in this case that would be around the 5.1678 mark.
So extreme caution is warranted, there is enough to suggest that I would be uncomfortable still hanging on to shorts and given the direction moves over the past couple of days I suspect that we are actually going to see some further moves higher near term. Each time you have what appears to be conflicting signals you need to start watching it more closely, it helps to have some rules in place and to pay attention to the long-term trends. If we are going to see a short-term reversal, we should see dips lower ideally hold over the 20-day ma at 4.7073 now.
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USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
USDBRL Climbs for 8 Straight DaysOne of the most liquid Emerging Market currency crosses, $USDBRL, is advancing for an eight straight trading session through Thursday. This is the longest unbroken bull run for the exchange rate since September 2014.
It's impressive that it is advancing in today's session given the Dollar is under pressure of its own, but it seems general risk aversion is the stronger force.
A retreat in emerging markets can definitely be a risk response, but perhaps there is more persistence to the belief that central banks will normalize regardless of a little market turbulence than previously believed.
USDBRL Is this an early Buy Signal for Coffee?The USDBRL pair has been trading within a steady 2-decade long Channel Up, which is well displayed on this 1W chart. As you see last time it formed a 1W Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) after a Higher High, it dropped significantly and that was still a fairly early buy signal on Coffee (KC) on a long-term 5-year horizon.
At the moment USDBRL hasn't made a new High in more than 1 year and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is rolling over. Can this be a very early buy signal on Coffee before confirmation comes by the 1W Death Cross? It would appear that way and in our opinion that is an excellent long-term buy opportunity on Coffee futures.
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