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USDBRL

USD/Latin American currencies poised to reboundWe have in Red (USDBRL) and Orange (USDCLP) the two strongest currency in latin american recovering from recent devaluation in a pronounced way in comparison with Dolar Index (Green). But fiscal situation in Brazil is getting worse, the political problem after impeachment of last president is to approve a series of bills to cut social expenditure like Health and Education, while continuing rolling over debt. Debt-to-GDP ratio is getting to 70% this year, in 2014 it was 55% showing significant deterioration. While Business Confident Index (BCI-OCDE) improved this year, I have no reasons to believe it will last, in my vision is more related to a psychological vision that impeachment will bring structural changes, but the new goverment don't discard raise taxes. In Chile (USDCLP) on the other hand, without impeachment, has the worst BCI in the world right now. showing the profound crises Latin American is facing. With all the majors countries in crises Mercosur business is stagnated. Time to LONG Latin American Pairs. Sources: Debt-to-GDB Brazil: BCB 2016 BCI-OCDE: data.oecd.org
Long
by AlexandreZaire
3
LONG USDTRY & USDRUB: CARRY V $ PAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE NXT WKUSD vs Carry: 1. Yield vs USD - G10 - AUD NZD; EM - BRL, ARS, TRY is likely to continue its downside pain into next week as dollar denominated short term interest rates (STIR) spiked (after hawkish Yellen comments - see attached post) to pre-brexit highs (30D Fed Funds steeper and Implying hikes now up at P=33% Sept, P=59.1 Dec, P=92.1% 2016) which as you can see had a highly correlated depreciative effect on yield ccys on Friday which imo will continue to see USD sought and carry supplied into next week. 2. Looking further into september/ until the Fed meeting, a firm beat in the US jobs report remains key for any sustained readjustment higher in USD vs yield.. as will firm data in general after Augusts very lacklustre data performance. - The broad commodity complex coming under continued pressure after its recent topside (USD appreciation driven or otherwise) will also help the long USD vs carry positioning for the month. Any topside in the commods complex will likely dampen the above effects which will make watching micro commmod market developments key in selecting which ccys are likely to be the best under-performers vs the dollar. Top Trades - Long USDTRY & Long USDRUB on Oil swings lower: 1. USDTRY - Recent comments from TRY Officials, asking for a "rapid" reduction in interest rates to boost growth and employment AND the 25bps reduction in the overnight lending rate (8.25% vs 8.50%) last week make TRY shorts particularly interesting as speculative fwd differential positioning could see USDTRY rip higher this month, particularly as it is one of the few non-commod export driven carry ccys which shields the long usdtry trade from the above mentioned continued commod environment topside possible which may lag gains. 2. USDRUB - A particularly effective way to play this long USD position would be to short RUB on any southward movements in Oil as this combined with interest rate flows leaving the currency for USD will likely promote a two-pronged movement lower in the Russian currency making it particularly rewarding.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
O que aconteceu com USDBRL entre 2010-2016 em 7 eventos(A) 1a Eleição de Dilma Rousseff (B) Início do rally do DYX US Dollar Index (C) Reeleição de Dilma Rousseff (D) Eduardo Cunha, presidente da Câmara de Deputados, aceita pedido de impeachement da Presid. Dilma Rousseff (E) Câmara de Deputados instaura processo de impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, com mais de 2/3 dos votos (F) Enfraquecimento do rally do DYX (G) Referendo brexit É interessante comparar a evolução percentual do par dolar americano x real (USDBRL) com a evolução do DYX, índice que compara valor do USD com cesta de principais moedas do mundo. De 2010 a 2016 houve uma valorização do USD de uma forma geral, mas o impacto na moeda brasileira foi extraordinário. Note como surge uma diferença significativa entre a evolução percentual dos índices já no segundo ano do mandato de Dilma, em 2012, quando o USDBRL cresce cerca de 10% a mais que o DYX. Essa diferença será fortemente ampliada após a releeição, chegando a um pico de mais de 100% no início de 2016. No contraponto, os sinais de troca de governo forçam uma tendência de queda para o par USDBRL, já em Fevereiro-2016, reduzindo a diferença percentual. Somada a queda experimentada pelo DYX a partir de Maio-2016, o movimento de USDBRL ganha ainda mais vigor. Mas até quando? Esse movimento de entrada de dolares é tido pelos analistas com um dos principais drivers da tendência bullish da Bovespa (IBOV) nos últimos meses. Comentários são muito bem vindos!
INDEX:DXY
by Inativo
1
SUZB5: Eyes open for next week new'sThe context: * A large percentage of company's sales is done in USD (exportations), so high USDBRL -1.21% is good for the company. * The BEK prices (Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft) suffered a donw trend in the last months, affecting all the players of the sector (See ETF 0.00%% WOOD), but there is a moviment of price growning in course. * The company's 2Q/20216 results were considered "over analists expectations", with an important Private Equity bank targeting R$ 20 p/s in the next 12 months. So, when we take this context with the market data it's possible to see bullish trend forming soon; Special attention must be given to RSI hiting 20% and the divergence between WOOD and SUZB5 -3.31% since 14/Jul. Now, the only factor that may be blocking an bullish trend in this stock is the USDBRL -1.21% , wich reached an accumulation point this week. My bet: If in the next monday (01/Aug) the price stock forms an nice candle, crossing R$10.3, it's time to buy; Target R$10.80, but it may change with the next market new's ( USDBRL -1.21% ). Comments are welcome! (@Anacarsis thank you for the help)
SLong
by Inativo
1