USDBRL Short in 3 months to 2022As I can see from the history chart 200 til now USD/BRL will soon around month 8 go down for about 4 years .
USDBRL
The Central Bank will intervene in the USD/BRL.The Central Bank will offer more foreign exchange swap contracts, equivalent to the sale of dollars in the futures contracts.
Correction to be continued in the Bovespa (Brazil) indexThe Brazil index, Bovespa, often trades in tandem with the Brazilian Real. The index is showing signs of weakness. A good hedge is shorting the Brazilian Real. This is because the Brazilian economy is exchange rate sensitive. See image below to see its consistency.
If the breakdown in the Bovespa breaks the wedge to the downside beyond the minimum target, I believe it is limited to 74,000. Right into the red box. At that point I will be a major buyer
USD/BRL: Buyers ReturnThe negative outlook of early January has faded. The then expected breakout did not materialized. Moreover, buyers have returned and are even trying to trigger a new recovery phase of some sorts. For this they must convincingly clear the barrier around 3.3475 thus paving the way towards 3.4750 and perhaps a bit higher.
Although not spectacular, it is one of various signs that the USD is regaining strength, at least on a 1-3 month horizon. Keep stops nearby at 3.1520.
Primary trend: neutral
Outlook: recovery likely, moderately positive > 3.3475
Strategy: trading-buy above 3.3475
Support: 3.1520 / 3.0810
Resistance: 3.3475 / 3.4750+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 3.1520
FX_IDC:USDBRL
Expect the Brazilian Real to underperform the EuroWe have an H&S on EURUSD, and an H&S on BRLEUR. Why short the Euro when you could short the Brazilian Real? I'll just short both; overweight short Brazil Real.
$PBR #PBR - Posible pequeño recorte/descanso$PBR está perdiendo un poco de fuerza al alza y empieza a mostrar signos de debilidad al no poder superar los 8.78.
Antes de continuar con las subas, es posible que se tome un descanso retrocediendo hacia 2 niveles de soporte claves: 8.23 y 8.04.
Para ello, antes debemos esperar la pérdida de la zona de 8.71 para confirmar la debilidad.
Ésta situación se anula con un cierre superior a 8.78
BRLUSD: Technical bottom spottedI think this can be the bottom of the recent pullback in the Brazilian Real. I'm long $BRL as an oil proxy here, shorting $USDBRL with a tight stop at 3.3415.
The political crisis might be averted, and the currency can soar, specially with the extreme negative sentiment currently affecting it.
Best of luck to our brazilian friends, and to anyone taking the trade.
Ivan Labrie.
Worst Performer in Europe vs Best Performer in The Americas Year-to-date, the Brazilian Real has out-performed the US dollar more than any other currency in The Americas, while the Turkish Lira under-performed all of its European counterparts.
(USDBRL -10.78%)
(USDTRY +24.66%)
Getting long at the 618 retracement which will also fall into the breakout of the pennant.
Targeting the 382 of the major peak and major trough.
USDBRL Triangle BreakoutPossible short position on USD BRL, waiting for breakout. There are a lot of important decisions in the next weeks around social security (retirement reform) and curruption judgements.
Triangle at USD BRLWaiting for breakout, posible short position. There are a lot of decisions on brazilian congress in the next weeks around social security (retirement reform) and curruption decisions.
Execution Strategy on BovespaLong term I am bullish. These are my price interests with full execution strategy.
USDBRL Long opportunity on DailyI believe this pair will bounce off the established horizontal support and headed towards .38 retracement. Be careful with a breakout to the downside, a SL at the 3.09 area should keep you safe
USD/Latin American currencies poised to reboundWe have in Red (USDBRL) and Orange (USDCLP) the two strongest currency in latin american recovering from recent devaluation in a pronounced way in comparison with Dolar Index (Green). But fiscal situation in Brazil is getting worse, the political problem after impeachment of last president is to approve a series of bills to cut social expenditure like Health and Education, while continuing rolling over debt. Debt-to-GDP ratio is getting to 70% this year, in 2014 it was 55% showing significant deterioration.
While Business Confident Index (BCI-OCDE) improved this year, I have no reasons to believe it will last, in my vision is more related to a psychological vision that impeachment will bring structural changes, but the new goverment don't discard raise taxes.
In Chile (USDCLP) on the other hand, without impeachment, has the worst BCI in the world right now. showing the profound crises Latin American is facing. With all the majors countries in crises Mercosur business is stagnated.
Time to LONG Latin American Pairs.
Sources:
Debt-to-GDB Brazil: BCB 2016
BCI-OCDE: data.oecd.org
USDBRL UpdateI want this one cheap. I am not buying on any breakouts. I want to go long at an extremely low risk entry.
Sell PetroBras around double topBased on RSI55 div on a daily chart and bearish structure look forward for consolidation around 10.20/share and further reversal.
Time horizon: 1-2 quarters.
Initial target and stop as it drawn on the chart.
USDBRL short entry [Just an idea]Hi traders,
On the USDBRL daily chart I'm looking at a potential bearish entry at the retest of the trendline. This area lines up with the completion of the AB=CD pattern and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Entry: 3.3228
Stop: 3.3960
Target: 3.1898 = R:RR 1.82
Good luck! Updates will follow.
Long on BRLUSD Brazil RealIn this pair the price reached a support line, probably won't close under that. Buy it now and sell if close (manual stop) under it anytime. The goal is at 0,3302.
FORECAST USDBRLOPEN POSITION: SELL 3.23
STOP: 3.26
TARGET 3.18
SECONDARY TARGET 3.14
CANCEL: IF CLOSE OVER 3.25
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