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USDBRL

Brazilian Bovespa Index: Long Term Fairly high probability we see the Bovespa index trade to the downside. This is a great trade because it presents us with multiple opportunities if the stop gets triggered (with a close on the weekly time frame). Pay Attention to the correlation between USDBRL and Bovespa Index - extremely important as Brazil´s equity market has proven to be extremely sensitive to its currency (for now). Notice Brazil trades lower when BRL weakens ' quite the opposite with other markets, such as the Nikkei and the Yen. If we see the 3.20´s get hit while the reaching resistance in the Bovespa it should indicate a great entry. (Though this is usually unlikely to occur at the same time.)
INDEX:IBOVShort
by Lanmar
Brazilian Real stabilizing near historical levels against USDIt's interesting to note that the USDBRL pair hasn't risen any further despite the route in the Brazilian bond market and the Fed rate hike this week. Of course, both were largely priced into the market. We're currently at one of those crossroads where fundamentals favor further US dollar strength against the Brazilian real whereas technical analysis suggests that one should be careful in following the general consensus on this particular market. I find it very interesting that the USDBRL has remained below its October 2002 highs on a monthly close basis since September despite all the negative news in Brazilian fixed income markets between October and December. That said, I would refrain from exaggerating the downside risk to this pair given that the dips have consistently been bought at around the 3,71/72 handle since October. If the dollar weakens (or the real strengthens) at the start of January with traders initiating new carry trade positions in the EM FX markets, we'll have to see just how things play out before being able to really tell if USDBRL will eventually break above its resistance.
by ABRAK75
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014. In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009. Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan. USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment. The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then. The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83. Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374 Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader