Crude Oil
Brent Crude Oil Important technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
. While the price is below the resistance 44.55, beginning of downtrend is expected.
. We make sure when the support at 36.95 breaks.
. If the resistance at 44.55 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
. There is a divergence in RSI and price between the peak at 43.315 on 2020-06-08 and the peak at 43.93 on 2020-06-23, the probability of uptrend continuation is decreased and the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
. While the RSI support #1 at 50 is not broken, the probability of price decrease would be too low.
. A peak is formed in daily chart at 43.80 on 07/06/2020, so more losses to support(s) 42.20, 40.00 and minimum to Major Support (36.95) is expected.
. Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
. Relative strength index ( RSI ) is 62.
Crude oil (WTI) to retest 34.34 The price broke down the double three WXY of (B) corrective structure.
We got the pullback to the broken support.
Watch further break below minor support.
Wave (C) could retest the former valley of 34.34
See related Brent crude for education purpose - the overall structure is the same, but the current corrective structure in wave (B) differs.
Brent Crude: Watch Recovery For Another SellWe got the first leg down (A) of the second drop ((W)) to complete the big consolidation (((4))).
I expect the retracement (B) to emerge soon to reach between 41.60 and 42.20
I highlighted the historical pullback with green ellipse for sample.
Another drop down (C) could undershoot at 37.51, ((Y))=((W)) or overlap beyond the terminal point of wave ((W)) below 36.99.
Brent Crude Could Have Started Another Drop to 36.99The price failed to tag the former top of 43.40, but it's ok and the huge flat correction goes as planned (see related).
We got move down and almost full retracement of it in place. Another drop is pending to complete the correction.
The minimum target is located at the former low of 36.99.
Brent Crude Updated Map - More Down 32.90/29.70Current consolidation is a classic flat within double three WXY (white labels).
Which is in its turn is the wave ((X)) of the larger yellow degree - the junction between ((W)) and ((Y)).
After it gets completed another drop would follow to hit the blue box between 32.90 (38.2% Fib) and 29.70 (50% Fib).
wait the resisitance breakoutCL will show a strong buy signal after it test the resistance line with break it out with big volume
Brent Crude Correction Gets Complicated range 43.40-36.99The current move up is not an impulse as its 1-2-3 maybe (A) of yellow ((X)).
Then the correction gets more complex and we will get stuck in the 43.40-36.99 range.
Brent Crude Consolidation Alternative view - Simple ZigZag downThis could be more simple - just a zigzag
wave (C) could be underway then. It could hit at least the 61.8% of (A) = 39.77 or just below the terminal point of wave (A).
It can go deeper to hit 38.40 where (C) = (A).
Watch reaction in blue box.
Brent Crude Entered Consolidation The target from my last update for this idea was reached at 43.40 - exactly to the tick. I think it's just lucky coincidence ))
Now the market is consolidating within 39.84-43.40 range.
We got sharp wave (A) down in place, which hit 39.84; now the wave (B) is underway. It could retest the former top of 43.40.
Let's see.
Brent Crude Futures - Big Map on MonthlyWe can hit between 80-100 in wave B to retrace 50-61.8% of wave (A),
then down to tag the wave (A) termination point.
Brent Crude - Alternative count - double zigzag wave AIt could be a-b-c double zigzag in large wave A.
We got a and b in place and wave c already kicked off.
It's amazing that the trendline support wasn't broken yet.
Brent Crude Could Hit Between 41.60 and 46.60Earlier I posted an updated map where I was expecting a simple ABC correction down to hit 31-32 (see related)
It emerged as double three WXY instead and the wave (X) ran deeper to retest the start of wave (W) making it classic flat correction.
It looks finished as wave C of (Y) unfolded as an Ending Diagonal.
It was broken up now and the calculated target is located in the area between 41.60 and 46.60.
Now all waves look clear as we completed large wave 4 and now market aims at wave 5 up.
Brent crude: Last wave up is pending 5 of 5 to hit 36.90-38.80The crude oil completed minor correction in wave 4 of (5).
The last wave 5 of (5) is pending now. It could hit the area between 36.90 and 38.80.
BRENT OIL ($UKOIL): Demand For Oil is Back, But is the Uptrend?BRENT OIL ($UKOIL): Demand For Oil is Back, But is the Uptrend?
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Brent Oil (UKOIL, USDBRO, OIL_BRENT, BCOUSD) prices are seeing momentum again with Brent Crude forming an uptrend after an ugly start to 2020. Will we continue to see strength for oil, or will the lingering excess of supply work to suppress or even push down price? The chart suggests we have more upside, so let's map out a plan for what we do as oil prices rise.
Resource: www.aljazeera.com
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1. Fractal Trend just started showing an uptrend (Aqua bar color) on the 1 hour timeframe for the first time since early 2020.
2. With this strategy, we are looking for long setups in an uptrend and as such want to enter long on retests of bullish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Aqua) and/or bullish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Aqua).
3. Right now we are looking for an entry off of S1 S/R + order block cluster to ride this potential uptrend to our R1 take profit target below the gap at the range formed by prior swing highs, and our R2 exit target above the gap which would then form a gap fill.
4. The only three full position closure conditions here are if we hit both take profit levels, Fractal Trend signals a downtrend (Maroon bar color) and/or the stop loss is hit.
5. If Fractal Trend signals a downtrend, we will then be looking for short setups instead. So keep in mind that although we currently have a fresh bullish bias on oil, that could change quickly depending on what happens with the oil economy and with oil prices.
Good luck family!
Brent Crude updated map - 5 of 5 upThis structure looks better.
The wave 4 finally I revealed the key for it as it unfolded with wave C as an ending diagonal.
Brent crude: updated map of current consolidaionThe wave (X) took so long to unfold but at the end the structure is quite simple double three.
Another drop should follow to complete the WXY correction.
WTI updated map - could be ending diagonal 5 of (C)The wave 4 that I was looking to unfold before could be over long ago as simple flat.
The further seesaw structure that already distracted so many traders from the crude could be an ending diagonal wave 5 of (5) of ((C)).
After it gets finished we could see a drop in 3 waves retracement.
Brent crude: Updated map - impulse up is still in progressIt looks like there wave 4 is building within double three WXY (yellow). (I warned about it in the update below the idea )
Wave X is in progress. It can hit former top of 32.21 before reversing down to the valley of 28.66.
It's rather a sideways range trading. The market accumulates power to continue further up in wave 5 into the blue box.
P.S.
One could wonder, hey @aibek, why do you update brent crude so often and change the map in the opposite direction?
The thing is that the market is not static and more time elapses the more information we get.
This eliminates certain probabilities, that we build and creates new options for structure development.
And it is a constant process of changing with the chart as it always moves to the right ))) (old traders' joke).
Brent Crude could drop to 13.22-1.50 in last wave 5 downBrent crude benchmark could drop in wave 5 down into the blue box target area.
The wave 4 could be over already as it emerged within a huge double three WXY.
The wave Y is larger than W already.
Brent crude oil: Alternative view - Double ThreeBrent crude could extend it's corrective structure making a double three WXY.
watch blue box area of 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement for further clue.
This an alternative view to augment the earlier posted idea. (see related)
Brent crude to retest former lowSame story as in S&P 500 (see retaled) as global pandemics undermined the economy.
Target 16 is a minimum to retest the former low.
