Usdbtc
Bitcoin's potential head and shoulders pattern.This pattern shows up very nicely on the 4 hour chart, and can also be seen on the daily. So far the pattern has been forming over 52 days. If we take our neckline from $6109 we have a target of $3700, or if taken from $5867 target of $3483(which is also a horizontal support). We get this target from taking the price range from neckline to top of the head. A candle close above $7100 would invalidate this pattern. We will want to see increasing bear volume on the downwards movement of the right shoulders, with massive volume on break of the neckline, and $5800 support, to validate the pattern.
I think (((They))) let BTC goThose candles look clean. Not like we were seeing not even a week ago. Something has changed.
God Speed,
Mr. Manbearpig
Predicting market movement by looking at USDT behavior aloneIts all explained on the graph but in summary:
Uncertainty has caused investors to "bank" their BTC/ZEC/ETC/ETC, and any other currency that has a USDT tag.
An increase in USDTBTC volume and volume of any other USDT tagged currency will indicate that a subset of investors are willing to convert their
"banked" money back to digital currency.
It will also indicate that 2.5billion dollars (USDT market cap) is starting to enter the market. This number we see as negligible, the physiological move among investors is more significant.
Combined with the usual BTC indicators this is a useful addition.
Fibonacci retracement, Extension and Elliott Waves Bitcoin setupFrom using Fibonacci retracement, Extension and Elliott Waves, this is how I see Bitcoin playing out over the next week. Perfect setup for squeezing the absurd amount of bottom shorters(who opens a short on a support level?!). My targets also coincide with horizontal supports and resistances.
As wave 2 has retracted little, (though there is the possibility it retraces more, to even say $6000 the 0.786 fib) wave 4 will normally retrace more.
$5800/6000 is a massive support, it's going to be a big ask to take it down. Although I do believe it will fall, the amount of shorts that opened on the bottom(+25%), right on support, are just asking to be liquidated, before we might see a bigger move down.
Short term - Bullish
Medium term - Bearish
Long term - Bullish
Second inverse head and shoulders pattern for weekly close?How i see this weekly close playing out. Hopeful team bull can pull off this inverse head and shoulders pattern(again), and also break out of this week long downwards chanel. Would target Bitcoin at $6850 if pattern plays out as there is heavy resistance there. Alternatively we breakdown from this chanel's top and head back down towards $5800 support.
A look at the biggest support regions, for if $5800 breaks. Off the back of the ETF decision delay, and $6800 breaking down sentiment have been ultra bearish, and alts have literally been capitulating. $5800 is such an important support level for Bitcoin. While this support holds we have a very nice bottom area for Bitcoin, and bulls do still have hope, albeit little. While Bitcoin continues to make lower highs it's hard to be bullish, but it's nice this $5800 support is still holding, but for how much longer can it last, how much longer can longing this region be free money?
The RR of opening a short here is not great, while this $5800 support is so big. I would not advise opening between $5800/$6100. Wait for $5700 to break if you're not already in a short position. But on the contatary, shorts have increased by 5k and longs decreased by 3k in the last 6 hours and BTC didn't even make a lower low. I can't even defend these new bitcoin shorters anymore, they literally only short the bottom and they will all close in a big $500 candle. Shorts on bfx are silly in my opinion, wait for support to break, don't open a short on a massive support level.
With that said If $5800 does break, go ahead and open a short(if you're not already in a short position). Highlighted are some key support regions where i can see bounces playing out. The first i would expect to see with a big panic sell of support breaking would be $4700-5000. Expect a big sell when the support breaks, hence going straight through $5500. 5k is a fibonacci support level of 0.786, horizontal support and a nice psychological number for buys to be placed at.
I always trade with the market, if there is little to no bounce at 5k expect to see the lower supports to play out, until we find our bottom, and we can move onto the next market cycle.
BTCUSD 3 DRIVES PATTERN FIBS MATCH UP TAKE A LOOKBTC chart within the downward wedge has been making a bullish 3 drives pattern, but I will say it also made one with the last hump I will put link below. So it seems to be moving within this Wedge pattern since January the fibs line up about 68% extension on the tops and 1.2 on the bottoms its textbook now we just need it to hit the bottom of the wedge at $5500 and fire up to 10K usd so lets see what happens happy trading everyone. This is not financial advice it my opinion. Do your own research and analysis and make your own decisions.
You ever dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?Bears in absolute control, the bulls that remain on board must hold new lows, or hit now......but with what?
Bitcoin to test $5000 support for market reversal.After this weeks pump to the $7600 region i do expect us to make a pull back now, or after reaching $8200 max. After this pump i do see low $5000's incoming as a correction, as $5700 BTC support is already beaten up and cannot see it holding again for long. This idea in my opinion will be invalidated if a positive ETF approval for Bitcoin is made.
I foresee Bitcoin getting drawn to 5k like a magnet. Where i do predict a bounce that can hopefully be the start of the bullmarket, my reasons for the bounce are listed below.
At $5000 there lies 4 major supports.
The horizontal support line at the $5000 region.
The trend line which does back from March 2017 connects at the $5000 region with the next few weeks.
The 0.786 fib retracement level lies just on $5000, in this crypto bear market I have noticed fib 0.786 has been more reliable than 0.618 for bounces, and a lot of big traders will be looking at this fibonacci retracement .
The psychological number that is 5000, expect people to see this number and have buys placed there.
On top of that we have the ETF ruling on the 10th of August(more or less). If the news is positive i do NOT foresee us hitting 5k in the near future, the sentiment will be too bullish. But if the date is delayed, or negative, i believe this setup will play out to test at least a $5000 bottom.
If the ETF is then approved it will be amazing news for the cryptocurrency market and i see much growth coming, if ETF is rejected again, the gains and volume will dry up and we likely we will explore new local lows and $3/5k supports.
Possible Bitcoin bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern.Bitcoin has a possible inverse head and shoulder pattern forming. The left shoulder and head are already formed, just needs the right shoulder to reach the neckline and then a hopeful breakout with volume.
The biggest problem i foresee for the bulls are the 55EMA and horizontal resistance. Currently the 1D 55EMA is sitting right on the resistance of $6870, this is also currently the top of the bollinger band and neckline. If the bulls manage to break through all this resistance with good volume, one cannot deny at least in the short term, a market reversal is occuring.
Ideally you'd want to see a lower volume during the decline of the head (for an iH&S) compared to the left shoulder followed by an increase in volume on the advance back up to signify increased buying pressure rather than relaxed selling pressure. In this case, we got neither, as the head had fairly equal volume on the way down relative to the left shoulder and lower volume on the way back up than down. At least the right shoulder is low volume though.
I do believe though that many stops will be placed just above this resistance level, and if the bulls do break it we may see a domino effect of people buying BTC. The log support at 7.25k or so will likely have turned to resistance so would play long to around that area, a great profit.
TDLR: breaking $6870 with volume is very bullish, and first target is $7200. If the resistance proves too much, good short opportunity may come into play.
Correction/retracement comingLooking from an elliot wave standpoint, we can see Bitcoin has finished its 5th wave up, and is now due a retracement. BTCUSD is currently hovering around the BIG resistance level of 6700/6800 and i cannot see us breaking this signifying the finish of the 5th wave. Now a healthy retracement would be to $6300, losing this support and i foresee a retest of $5700, which i would not expect to hold again, with btc going to low 5k.
Alternatively the bulls get through the $6800 resistance with volume, in which case i would wait for a retest of the resistance turn (maybe)support to think about opening a long position, but more likely to open a short the higher it gets, but as i say play with the market, so cannot say 100% which position i will take up without seing the charts and sentiment, will update.
TLDR: keep an eye on if the bulls can break BTC $6800 resistance with volume, if not a retracement to at least 6300 is coming very soon.
It Took An Extra Day But Here We AreMy Last BTC analysis I mentioned that we were going down to bounce off the 6300 before moving up again - here we are.
Weekend trading finished with us having tested the resistance levels at 6800 and not being able to break through.
We continue to band between the 6400 and 6800 mark as the market continues to reject a higher price.
We will be experience a reversal at this point as we pass through the 6400 resistance mark and move back up to 6800.
This is likely our last dip into the 6300 range before we break through 6800.
We've been building slowly after we hit lows in the 5000s. Expect this growth to continue steadily over the week. Once we break through 6800 we have other spots like 7200 to worry about.
Its a good day to buy. Otherwise hold!
BTC - The Road To Recovery Yesterday was a good day for BTC - it seems we have double bottomed and reversed which has left us in a sideways pattern around 6400.
$6400 has always been mentioned as a major resistance level. The current pattern continues to challenge 6400 and hopefully we have the momentum to break through it before we challenge 6800 and 7200.
In the short term - low volume could keep us moving sideways. This pattern should be the beginning of a few patterns - particularly another H&S if the chart forms a head.
The only trades worth making right now are buys. We will have to wait until we make it above 6800 before we can determine if we are going to be able to break through 7200 or if we will be pushed down again before making another run.
If we see a head form - a short opportunity may present itself as a right side is carved out. For those of you who are looking to long - these are the best prices we have seen in some time.
Bitcoin! Set Your Stops?If you have been following BTC the last few weeks you have probably been accumulating for the long haul.
In the short term the market still has not made a decision as to which way it wants to go (other than continue sideways).
If the current pattern breaks through the downtrend line we are likely going to 5700.
So how should you trade it?
If you watch BTC all day - there is likely and excellent short opportunity as the right side of the pattern plays out.
Some people ask what the point of TA since it seems to be vague. The point is to arm you with the knowledge you need to make the best possible decision based on what we can see. We all have to wait for confirmation of pattens before trading - otherwise we are trading on "hunches". We know that BTC will trade above these levels again - so its really a race to the bottom to try and wrestle the best price out of someones hands.
If we are in a true H&S pattern it will bring us down to the 5000s - it makes sense to set your stop below the right shoulder - if we see a breakout your stop is never triggered - and if we see a major downtrend you''ll be in a good stop to pickup more BTC.
Im forever bullish on BTC but it is starting to look like we are going down before we start testing the higher resistance levels again.
BTCUSD falling analysis, support and resistanceBTCUSD daily chat ///
I have already told you my idea that the downward trend has not ended. And I've published graphics about it.
An important support of 6425 was broken. The price is now at 6000 support.
If it breaks it goes to the 5400 and 4970 supports. These are important supports.
You can also see other support in the chart.
If you stay above 6000, there are 6425 resistors above.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
I'm sorry for the impaired expression..Just watch the chart, not what I write. :)
PS make sure you give me a like, If you LIKE this analysis .... If you like most of my analyzes, FOLLOW me .
June 14 - BTCUSD daily chart
May 25 - BTCUSD daily chart
Bitcoin Weekend Forecast - June 23 2017 Price was $2700 - Calm!Every market I trade has a close. This allows people to calm down - go outside - forget about the market for the night or weekend.
BTC is a 24/7 concern if you are taking short positions. If you are a "whale" its an attempt to protect and grow your wealth.
If you are a retail investor like most people this picture doesn't look very good.
I've been trading for years. Sometimes the market takes you for a loop - volumes change or patterns change. Sometimes you take a detour only to end up back where you started. The one consistent thing about Bitcoin that people don't normally talk about - is BTC is still up about 150% compared to last year. If you looked at your year after year gains BTC outperforms anything else.
The problem is - there are a lot of people looking for a quick buck. When they no longer see that quick buck they dump their BTC for less than market (did anyone buy in the 5900s last night?).
When you think BTC is dead - one whale trade will turn this thing around and it will turn bullish again. Major stake holders have a lot of control and try to gain more BTC (cant blame them) from retail investors like you and me. The next 5 years will be a battle between Funds, Institutions and Whales - with the rest of us hoping to get a massive premium for the coins we are squirreling away.
My recommendation to everyone is to long BTC. If you look year after year there have been opportunities to make "quick gains" but overall the asset grows. If you buy it and forget about it -you will eventually be happy with it!
What happened in last nights trading is simple. Low volume drove the price down - we double bottomed and reversed back up. At this point things could either move sideways for a few more days or more likely we will start testing prices on higher volume. We are now looking at the 6400, 6800 and 7200 levels to break out of this cycle. This is normal - BTC has a history of not breaking through resistance levels. It also has a history of moving up a thousand dollars in less than an hour. The best advice in these choppy waters is to buy and hold. There are only 17 million coins minted which makes them rare. The price by all means should be 10k (it costs 8k in power to mint each one). If I wasn't so enamored by charts I would buy my BTC, take the summer off and see where we are in September. 25k sometime this year is still a very real possibility. More importantly any correction next year will likely keep us in the 8-10k range.. We are seeing prices we may never see again.
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BTCUSD : The falling trend continues ! Red lines: Monthly resistances
Blue lines: Monthly supports
It has broken down the most important support line it has returned two month before.
Opinions are strong that the falling will continue. Indicators are also negative.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
I'm sorry for the impaired expression..Just watch the chart, not what I write. :)
PS make sure you give me a like, If you LIKE this analysis .... If you like most of my analyzes, FOLLOW me .
Double Bottom Reversal To Start The Weekend!!BTC continues to move in a sideways fashion. Yesterday we tried to break the 6800 resistance again - only to find ourselves this morning in the 6300 range.
The pattern that has emerged is called a double bottom. This means we are going to likely experience a reversal in short time and again test the 6800 level of resistance.
With weekend trading upon us - we are once again playing in the 6000s going into the weekend. 6800 keeps getting rejected - but perhaps we are in the final dip before the climb.
Everything indicates another build up to 6800 . Lets hope that the weekend crowd is able to get us through the 6800 threshhold if not the 7200. I know some patience is wearing thin!
When Will We Break 6800?Not a big update for BTC today. As you can see we continue to test the $6800 resistance as we move sideways.
A new pattern seems to be forming that will likely keep us above 6800.
It looks like we will break through 6800 at some point today and work our way up to testing the 7200 mark that we've been waiting on for days!
Bitcoin - Break Out Or One Last Dip?I hate to make calls that are bearish when people are crying out for a bull run but I can't stop thinking of a very real scenario that will temporarily bring us down before up.
For most of this chart I have been expecting a double bottom to match the left shoulder at 6100. It seems to have avoided dropping down to this level - so I am not going to say that this HAS to happen - only that it is a possibility.
As you can see weve been straddling the green downtrend line and thats okay. It doesnt seem like the market is ready to break. This will change of course with one move of the move by a bull.
The pattern is looking less like an inverse H&S by the minute. The current price seems to reflect the last double bottom we had in the 6300's before the slight price jump.
We still seem to be moving sideways - we may temporarily drop to 6100 but there seems to be enough evidence supporting the opposite as well.
My analysis still tells me that this is a perfect place to be buying and hold - the market will turn around like it always does - we may never see these prices again!
BTC - Your Guide To This WeekendWelcome everyone to the weekend.
We have been waiting on what looks an awful lot like a inverse H&S to play out. We seem to have experienced difficulty breaking out of $6500.
These shapes are rarely perfect - and with the bearish belief that we will go further down in price - many are sitting on the sidelines waiting for some sort of sign.
The pattern still appears to be a very real play despite the sideways momentum.
This pattern seems ready to break at any time - we will continue to move sideways until there is some sort of catalyst.
$7200 in the next few days is the likely possibility.
Will we see anymore "buy" spots in the meantime that we haven't seen yet? I don't think there is any evidence of us moving lower than the "head". I recommend to everyone who invests in BTC to hold back a cash reserve. If you look at BTC over the years - todays prices are a complete bargain - by all means buy up positions at this level as we likely wont see it again until the next "wave" - or maybe never again. Its buy time big time - but still hold some back!
That said - weekends are unpredictable. The market appears ready to turn around - but some quick manipulation by the whales could always break the pattern and put us $1000 higher or lower in an hour. If its lower - make sure you have some cash to buy BTC - because regardless of what happens over the next few days - our next big challenge is 7200 and up from there.
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