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SVB, Silvergate Collapse & Affect on CryptomarketHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. In a twist of events, an incident that happened within the banking realm created chaos for the crypto realm. I bet you didn't have that on your bingo cards for 2023... In the past few weeks, there have been two significant bank failures in the United States that have sent shockwaves throughout the financial world. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank has sparked concerns about the stability of the banking system and the future of the crypto industry. The failure of these banks highlights the fragility of the financial system and the challenges faced by institutions that operate in high-risk sectors like tech and crypto. Silicon Valley Bank ( SVB ) was closed by the FDIC on March 9 due to its heavy losses caused by the downturn in technology stocks and the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive plan to increase interest rates. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency created by the US Congress in 1933 to maintain stability and public confidence in the nation's financial system. The FDIC provides deposit insurance that guarantees the safety of deposits in member banks, up to a certain limit. In the event that a member bank fails, the FDIC will step in to insure deposits, provide assistance to depositors, and liquidate the failed bank's assets. The FDIC also regulates and supervises member banks, as well as conducts research and analysis on the banking industry. Silicon Valley Bank bought bonds using customers' deposits, but the value of those investments fell as interest rates rose. This is usually not a problem for banks, but Silicon Valley Bank's customers were largely startups that needed cash. Venture capital funding was drying up, and companies were tapping their existing funds deposited with Silicon Valley Bank, which was at the center of the tech startup universe. In response to this liquidity crisis, SVB sold a $21bn bond portfolio at a loss of $1.8 billion. The bank attempted to fill the solvency hole with a combined equity offering of $2.25bn on March 8, but the attempt failed. This is the largest failure of a financial institution in the United States since Washington Mutual collapsed more than a decade ago. The closure of SVB had an immediate effect on some startups that had ties to the bank, as they scrambled to pay their workers and feared having to pause projects or lay off employees until they could access their funds. SVB , the 16th largest bank in the US, had assets of $209 billion, with more than 50% of its investments tied up in long-term securities, including exposure to the Silicon Valley tech and health startup world. The bank's sudden collapse has raised questions about its risk management practices, and the impact of its closure on its clients, who are largely startups and wealthy tech workers. The bank's large uninsured deposits and exposure to high-risk sectors like tech and crypto contributed to its downfall. But SVB isn't the only one... Silvergate Bank, which has been a significant player in the crypto world, has announced that it is closing and returning deposits. The bank's holding company, Silvergate Capital Corporation, stated that the decision was made "in light of recent industry and regulatory developments." The closure follows the loss of one billion dollars in a quarter after customers withdrew $8.1 billion, and a subsequent filing in March revealing even worse financials. The closure of Silvergate Bank is concerning for the crypto industry, as it may lead to companies turning to less regulated institutions for their banking needs, potentially making the space even riskier. Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Paxos have already started moving away from the bank. The collapse of the bank will likely draw scrutiny from lawmakers who are concerned about the crypto contagion affecting the traditional financial sector. The Silvergate Exchange Network, which allowed crypto exchanges like Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken to move money between themselves and other institutions, has also been shut down. The bank's financial struggles have been ongoing for some time, with some of its high-profile clients like FTX and Genesis also experiencing challenges. Silvergate's collapse raises concerns about the future of the crypto industry, as companies may turn to less regulated institutions for their banking needs, potentially making the space even riskier for everyone involved. The bank's failure is also likely to draw scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about the potential contagion of the crypto industry on the traditional financial sector. Late Friday night Coinbase, a popular cryptocurrency exchange, announced that it would suspend conversions for the USDC stablecoin. This led to a rush of people trying to sell their USDC holdings, causing it to depeg from its value of $1 and trade as low as $0.87 before recovering to $0.92. Another stablecoin, Dai, also depegged and experienced a high volume of trading. Stablecoins are important in the cryptocurrency market as they provide a way for traders to move funds between different exchanges or cryptocurrencies without having to convert back to fiat currency. They are also used as a store of value by some cryptocurrency investors who prefer a more stable asset compared to the volatility of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. If stablecoins depeg permanently, it could lead to a loss of confidence in their stability and reliability. This could potentially cause a sell-off of stablecoins and a shift towards other assets perceived as more stable, such as traditional fiat currencies. But before we panic too hard and FUD out, it's important to note that the impact of this crisis on cryptocurrencies such as alts and Bitcoin would depend on the severity and duration of the stablecoin depegging event, as well as other market factors such as investor sentiment and regulatory actions. In the past, there have been instances of stablecoins temporarily depegging from their underlying assets without significant impact on the broader cryptocurrency market. One notable example of a stablecoin depegging in the past is the case of Tether (USDT) in 2018. Tether is a stablecoin that is pegged to the value of the US dollar , with each USDT token representing one US dollar . In October 2018, Tether's price dropped below the $1 peg on several cryptocurrency exchanges, leading to concerns about the stability of the stablecoin. The depegging was attributed to a variety of factors, including regulatory pressures, concerns about Tether's reserves, and a general market downturn. The depegging led to a sell-off of Tether and a shift towards other stablecoins such as USD Coin ( USDC ) and TrueUSD (TUSD), which saw increased demand as traders and investors sought more reliable alternatives. Despite the depegging of Tether, the broader cryptocurrency market did not experience a significant impact, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies largely unaffected. However, the incident highlighted the potential risks and uncertainties associated with stablecoins and their reliance on centralized institutions to maintain their pegs. In terms of price action for the immediate term, the Tether (USDT) depegging event in 2018 did have some impact on the cryptocurrency market prices, although the impact was relatively limited and short-lived. Following the depegging of USDT, there was a brief sell-off of Tether and a shift towards other stablecoins such as USD Coin ( USDC ) and TrueUSD (TUSD). This led to increased demand for these stablecoins, which helped to maintain their pegs to the US dollar . However, the broader cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin , was largely unaffected by the Tether depegging. While there was some initial volatility and uncertainty, the market quickly stabilized and resumed its upward trend. 💭The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is the second-largest bank default in U.S. history and puts the golden trifecta rule of banking (liquidity, solvency, and profitability) into review. This failure reminds us of the unintended consequences of unorthodox monetary policies, pandemic remediation measures, excessive leverage, and democracy eroding rulings. SVB had significant exposure to long-term securities and the Silicon Valley tech and health startup world. The bank's uninsured deposits pose a problem but insured deposits will be available as soon as Monday. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank underscores the need for stricter regulatory frameworks and tighter risk management practices in the financial industry. The failures also highlight the importance of diversification and risk mitigation strategies for banks and their clients. As the financial industry continues to evolve, it is essential that institutions keep pace with the changes and adapt their practices to ensure their stability and resilience in the face of future challenges. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
SShort
by CryptoCheck-
12
Analyzing Bank Liquidity: Key Charts to WatchThere is a lot of fear and uncertainty about bank runs right now, but fortunately, TradingView's charts give us objective and unbiased insight into the actual state of U.S. bank liquidity. In this video, I explain some key charts that you can use to analyze banking liquidity. You can add these charts to your Watchlist so you're always able to get a pulse on the current state of the U.S. banking system. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpyMasterTrades
17
Binance introduces USDC/USDT pair to help Circle CollapseAfter Luna`s stablecoin collapse, UST: Now Binance, the biggest crypto exchange, recently introduced the USDC/USDT pair, and now it`s users are able to transform their USDC into Tether. And let`s be honest, who wouldn`t to that amid this market uncertainty?! On Saturday, the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin experienced a drop in value below its dollar peg and reached a historical low. However, it later recuperated most of the losses after Circle, the company in charge of it, provided reassurance to investors that they would uphold the peg despite their connection to the struggling Silicon Valley Bank. Circle stated in a tweet on Friday that $3.3 billion of their $40 billion in USDC reserves are held in Silicon Valley Bank!! I think CZ listed this USDC/USDT pair on purpose, to generate a bank run out of its rival Circle, while they don`t have access to the full USDC liquidity. Watch out for those Top 5 investors in Circle as well: 1. Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs was one of the earliest investors in Circle, participating in a $50 million funding round for the company back in 2015. Since then, the investment bank has continued to support Circle, participating in subsequent funding rounds and helping to promote the adoption of Circle's products. 2. Digital Currency Group: Digital Currency Group is a venture capital firm focused on investing in companies in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. The firm has invested in numerous companies in the industry, including Circle. Digital Currency Group participated in a $110 million funding round for Circle in 2018, and has continued to support the company since then. 3. Breyer Capital: Breyer Capital is a venture capital firm founded by Jim Breyer, a prominent investor in the technology industry. Breyer Capital has invested in a number of successful technology companies, including Facebook and Spotify. The firm participated in a $50 million funding round for Circle in 2015. 4. Accel: Accel is a global venture capital firm that has invested in numerous successful technology companies over the years, including Facebook, Dropbox, and Slack. Accel participated in a $60 million funding round for Circle in 2016. 5. Pantera Capital: Pantera Capital is a hedge fund focused on investing in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The firm has invested in numerous companies in the industry, including Circle. Pantera Capital participated in a $50 million funding round for Circle in 2015, and has continued to support the company since then. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Short
by TopgOptions
USDC(Stablecoins)👉🏻 Bankfalls 👉🏻FED Regulation 👉🏻 CBDCUSDC USDC - US, peg lost Price is recovering and is now $0.95 This happened because Silicon Valley has a big problem, i will not go into details of this problem and how much collateral is lost. The fact is that the price of USDC was dropping to $0.86 and the price has not recovered yet to 1$ I am writing this post on Sunday because tomorrow is Monday and there will be an emergency FED meeting and the most interesting Scenarios : 1. the USDC is recovering and all is well, but confidence in this stablcoin is lost. Because, I will note so far the price has not recovered, ok there is a liquidity gap in steiblocoin pairs, but here is a different situation. 2. What if the price doesn't recover What to do? -Where to move to USDT? There is a scenario, when most of people go to USDT and then collapse the exchange rate of USDT (apocalypse Scenario). - Go to cash - Speculative option (not financial advice) Short USDCUSDT using Bitcoin Inverse contract with 1x leverage. The underlying asset for collateral will be BTC and the trading pair will be to the dollar. Of course you will pay a funding. If BTC goes down, we will have a profit from the short that will compensate for the downside movement. If it goes up, and since the underlying asset is BTC, then at closing the position the price in dollars will be exactly the same. We can look at the chart of the UST The decline to 0.65, recovery to 0.92 and then you see what happened. Of course, these are two different companies, different approaches, different backgrounds. USDC is much more serious But if you have some large part of the USDC you decided to speculate and earn 10%+ and you are not calm, shouldn't you just get rid of that asset without putting your deposit at great risk. Any Stablecoin is now a risk you take on yourself. Considering perfect storm scenarios. And where it all goes, and the direction this CBDC is headed . As the FED says it doesn't see any advantage in digital assets Why the Fed hates cryptocurrencies and especially stablecoins www.cnbc.com Required reading👆🏻 Many banks involved in cryptocurrency transactions were caught twitter.com What's next This is probably the first time you will see this company FedNOW - is a service developed by the Federal Reserve for depository institutions in the United States. It will allow individuals and businesses to send instant payments. Banks will be able to create products based on the FedNow platform. FedNow is scheduled to launch between May and July 2023. In this case you don't need banks when you have a FED _federal reserve system account FedNOW will provide the end user wallet in FED "A dollar in CBDC form is a liability of the central bank. The Federal Reserve has to pay you back." The plan became clear? This is all to finish off both banks and most of the crypto market will be the regulation of the cryptocurrency market I'm all about regulation in this article 👇🏻 The show must go on Tomorrow is Monday, opening of U.S. markets, urgent Fed meeting, it will be fun. I want to add a positive, if there will be a collapse, and it will happen sooner or later, we will see on the market will be inefficiencies on which arbitrage teams, and other market participants will be able to make big money. Our team has been tracking some inefficiencies since 2019 the result was on the falls in March 2020 and May 2021. What will happen to bitcoin. We can see that when the USDC went down the price of bitcoin relative to it became higher than to the pair USDT. Bitcoin is digital gold, at the beginning of the digital age. Crisis is always a time of opportunity. Best regards EXCAVO
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
7
Coinbase USD Bitcoin costs more than USDT BitcoinEver since USDC depegged, even BTC vs tether has depegged to a certain degree. Watch for a return to the norm. right now, BTC vs USD costs about $190 more than the Tether equivalent. Once upon a time, there was a little girl named Lily who lived in a small town. One day, her parents told her that they were going on a trip to another dimension, where the money was different. They explained that in that country, the money was worth more than it was in their own dimension. When they arrived in the other place, Lily noticed that bitcoin seemed to cost more than they did back home. Her parents explained that even though the prices were higher in the other place, it was because the money there was more stable and valuable than the money in their own world. Lily was fascinated by this idea and asked her parents why the money in the other dimension was worth more. They explained that it was because the other place had a strong economy and many valuable resources, which made their money more valuable to people around the world. As they went about their travels, Lily began to notice that things cost different amounts in different places, even within the same world. Her parents explained that this was because some places had more valuable resources than others, which made their money more valuable. Lily learned that the value of money could change depending on where you were, and that it was important to understand the value of money in different places. She was grateful for the opportunity to travel and learn about these things, and she looked forward to exploring more of the world and its many currencies.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bitdoctor
Trading Stablecoins: USDC/USDT (New Market) About 2 hours ago, the crypto exchange OKX opened the futures market for the USDC/USDT pair. Both are stablecoins, but one of them is actually not stable at all. Combined with good timing & a safe strategy, you can actually make a lot of money here. Due to the small range this ratio is moving in, you'll have to use leverage/ trade the perpetual-futures contract. Therefore, you need to be careful when it comes to the liquidation of your position. Use a tight stop-loss, set your take-profit order & try not fall into a gambling pattern by risking it all. Everything else is mentioned on the chart. I hope you like it, ARESABI
by Anton_XBT
4
USDC in critical situation !USDC / USDT one of top famous stable coins unfortunately it de-pegged after circle (issuer of USDC) confirmed that $3.3B of the ~$40B USDC reserves are in collapsed Silicon Valley Bank Today circle said : they will cover any missing liquidity in Silicon Valley Bank using corporate funds for $USDC Few hours ago Bitmex launched a perpetual contract on it and Bybit also have USDC perpetual contract which is not a good sign …I remember FTX launched a perpetual contract on UST just before it collapsed If they couldn’t solve this case soon it can drag all market down like Luna - FTX - Corona crashs (black swan event) Will USDC return to it’s value or dump will continue? Share with me your opinion in comments section below
by Babenski
20
Banking on Disaster: Fed Continues to TightenThe Federal Reserve's extreme tightening just caused the second-largest bank collapse in U.S. history (in nominal dollars). In this post, I will explain just how far the contagion is likely to spread, and why this is likely just the start of what may be widespread liquidity crises. In early 2022, in order to mitigate the record inflation it caused, the Fed began hiking interest rates. By mid-2022, the Fed was raising interest rates at the fastest pace on record. The rate of change (or ROC) in Treasury yields began to rise parabolically. Below is a chart that I posted back in August 2022 to show how extreme the rate of change was for the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Since bond prices move inversely to yields, bond prices began to fall sharply in 2022 as yields were rising. In October 2022, I posted the below ratio chart of TLT and M2SL to illustrate the immense wealth destruction that holding Treasury bonds was having for investors and institutions. I warned that what was occurring is destabilizing. To understand how I used the ratio chart of TLT and M2SL to conclude that, due to the Fed's extreme tightening, destabilizing wealth destruction was occurring for bondholders, you can see my post below. By late 2022, it became a mathematical certainty that liquidity crises would occur. Many market participants who were holding extremely low-yielding bonds were experiencing extreme losses because of the Fed's extreme rate hikes. Such losses are unrealized unless the bondholders are forced to liquidate while yields are much higher than when the bonds were purchased. For those who recall what happened in October 2022, pension funds in the UK were forced to liquidate their highly leveraged bond positions at a loss due to margin calls. This caused the Bank of England to quickly pivot in order to avert a major liquidity crisis for pension funds. Silicon Valley Bank ( SIVB ) however was not as lucky as UK pension funds. SIVB was at the forefront of the central bank-engineered liquidity crisis because of its unique clientele: debt-dependent start-ups. As liquidity was being destroyed by the Fed at a record pace in 2022, start-ups, which are heavily reliant on debt and cheap money to continue operations and generate growth, began to draw down their deposits as cash evaporated and borrowing became more expensive. This in turn forced SIVB to liquidate its bond holdings at a major loss, similar to the UK pension funds in October 2022. Once Silicon Valley Bank reported this major loss to the public, the market suddenly began to fear its viability. Within days, the bank collapsed. The collapse of SIVB occurred with an estimated 85% to 96% of all deposit amounts not being FDIC-insured. This means that most of the $175 billion in deposits at the time of the collapse may be partially or totally unrecoverable. Two things about the bank's collapse are remarkable: First, the unprecedented speed by which the bank collapsed and was seized by the FDIC, and, second, the overwhelming majority of the money deposited in the bank was not FDIC-insured. This is quite concerning because such a lack of FDIC insurance on deposits undermines the public's faith in the FDIC to maintain banking stability. Such a lack of insurance also causes actual liquidity contagion. Circle, the company that manages the USDC stablecoin, has confirmed that $3.3 billion of its U.S. dollar reserves were in the now-collapsed bank. At the time of writing, Circle does not know if or when the FDIC will come to the rescue. It's possible that neither the FDIC nor the U.S. Treasury comes to Circle's rescue, as neither entities are eager to support the cryptocurrency industry, which undermines U.S. dollar hegemony. The FDIC, therefore, faces a major conundrum: Maintain the public's faith in FDIC-guaranteed banking and ensure there is no liquidity contagion, at the expense of acting as a protector of stablecoins and cryptocurrency, and more generally, increasing moral hazard. Nonetheless, this fear that the FDIC may not come to the rescue has caused USDC to de-peg from the US dollar. Each USDC is now worth less than one US dollar, as shown in the chart below. Upon seeing USDC rapidly de-pegging, the cryptocurrency exchange platform, Coinbase, decided to temporarily freeze USDC conversion into U.S. dollars, forcing a reprieve in USDC's de-pegging. Nonetheless, at the time of writing, USDC is still teetering on the brink of collapse, having lost nearly 90% of the Tether ( USDT ) in its 3pool currency reserves. USDC instability is now spilling over into other cryptocurrency spaces that rely on USDC maintaining a stable value. One such space is the AAVE protocol. AAVE is an Open Source Liquidity Protocol that operates on the premise that only "low-risk tokens" such as USDC be used as collateral and as a lending pool reserve. Now that USDC has de-pegged from the U.S. dollar, any collateral that was pledged in USDC is now suddenly worth less. This is destabilizing the liquidity and reserve structure of the AAVE protocol. AAVE currently has $6 billion of locked liquidity across its networks. Although it is possible that the FDIC can fully resolve the crisis caused by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, it is likely that volatility may persist, especially when Coinbase resumes USDC swaps. In a worst-case scenario, USDC may follow the same trajectory as TerraUSD (UST) in May 2022. In this scenario, the shockwaves will be felt not only across the cryptocurrency space but also in the Treasury market. If too many stablecoin holders suddenly demand dollars, it could force a liquidation of Treasurys on reserve. Circle currently has over $32 billion worth of Treasurys in its reserves. Although this may not be significant enough to destabilize the multi-trillion dollar Treasury market, it can cause positive feedback and can increase fear in the market. This series of events was predictable and expected. The root cause is the central bank's monetary policy. The Fed is destroying the money supply at the fastest rate on record. Since the Fed is still tightening, which has a long and variable lag effect, the liquidity crises we're seeing now are likely the tip of the iceberg. The fact the Fed is still tightening so deep into the start of a financial crisis is unprecedented. When Lehman collapsed in September 2008, for example, the Fed had already pivoted over a year earlier (in August 2007). Now, it seems that a financial crisis is already underway but the Fed remains unable to pivot due to record-high inflation. Eurodollar futures are still demanding that the Fed hike rates. The Fed is therefore trapped. It must choose between runaway inflation or widespread liquidity crises. The yield curve is deeply inverted. This is a reliable indication that a recession is coming. The fact that it has been inverted for a while, and is deeply inverted, may be foreshadowing the extent and duration of the coming recession. In my post below, I explained why I believe that the most likely outcome is severe stagflation. The Fed is in a Catch-22, and there's no way to avert some kind of a crisis. Indeed, the coming years will likely reveal to us what the consequences are for decades of limitless monetary easing. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
by SpyMasterTrades
19
The volatility period below mid-March is...hello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known. (USDT chart) (USDC chart) (BTC.D chart) (USDT.D chart) It has filled the previous big drop on the USDT chart. It did not rise by creating a pure gap, but it showed an upward trend by creating a significant number of gaps. It is because we think that the rise with a gap on the USDT or USDC chart is evidence that funds have flowed into the coin market. Conversely, USDC suffered significant losses during the volatility period of March 9-11. It showed a large drop while creating a gap, and fell again while creating a falling candlestick. Despite the decline of BTC, BTC dominance is showing a downward trend. It means that funds are concentrated on the altcoin side, which is interpreted as meaning that altcoins are defending the price. This phenomenon can never be seen as a good phenomenon, but it seems that we will only know if it is a movement such as a last-ditch struggle to survive, where altcoins can no longer fall. It is showing really complex and difficult to understand movements. (USDT, USDC, BTC.D) I think it is the USDT dominance chart that helps us understand this complicated situation at once. It can be seen that USDT and USDT dominance have a great influence on the coin market. Therefore, if you understand even one of the USDT dominance charts, I think you can get more help in understanding the movements of the USDT, USDC, and BTC dominance charts. A rise in USDT dominance means a fall in the coin market (usually BTC price movement). Therefore, it can be seen that USDT dominance moves opposite to the movement of the coin market. If it rises above the current section, 7.86-8.25, there is a possibility of renewing the ATH. If that happens, the coin market is expected to show a significant decline. Therefore, the important question is whether it can be resisted by falling in the 7.86-8.25 area. Taking the charts of USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D, BTCUSDT, BTCUSDTPERP, and BTCKRW together, the next volatility period is expected to be around March 16, around March 20-24, and around March 29-30 It's possible. Therefore, we expect the move around March 16th to be a prelude to volatility. On the ETHUSDT chart, around March 12 (March 11-13) is a period of volatility, so you need to check the movement of ETH. If ETH leads the uptrend of the coin market, it is likely to be a short-term uptrend, so be careful. --------------------------------------- When I refer to periods of volatility, they are periods marked using StochRSI and support and resistance points. Therefore, when the waves of StochRSI change, the volatility period may also change. The HA-Low and HA-High indicators created for trading are paired indicators. Therefore, when falling from the HA-High indicator, most of them touch the HA-Low indicator. Conversely, when rising from the HA-Low indicator, most of them touch the HA-High indicator. Therefore, if it does not rise above the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart, it can be interpreted that there is a high possibility of touching the HA-Low indicator. It is expected to touch near the point where the current HA-Low indicator is located, or near the moved point when the HA-Low indicator moves. ---------------------------- (BTCUSDTPERP 1D Chart) Based on the point 22471.5, 1. As you ascend, 1st: 23937.1-24294.1 2nd : M-Signal of 1M Chart You need to check if resistance is received near the 1st and 2nd order above. 2. When it goes down, 1st: 20984.7-21826.1 2nd : 19411.7-20122.5 3rd: around 17864.7 (up to 16.4K) You need to make sure it is supported in the vicinity of the 1st-3rd order above. The first section is an important section from a mid- to long-term perspective. Therefore, I think that the upward trend is highly likely to open only when it rises above the 1st interval. The 2nd section is a meaningful support and resistance section that made it possible to create a cup pattern by rising to section A. Therefore, it is important whether it is supported or resisted in the secondary section. The 3rd section consists of the HA-Low indicator point (17864.7) on the 1W chart and the HA-Low indicator point (16580.6) on the 1D chart. In this way, the 1st to 3rd sections are important sections, and I think they are sections where divisional purchases can be made. As always, when the price goes down, the saying goes that it will go down even more. If you believe only these words and do nothing, you are the one who loses in the end. Therefore, if it shows support in an important section, you should prepare for a rebound or trend reversal by split buying. These split buys should be made on the assumption that they could go further down. If not, you will suffer from psychological anxiety and pressure after you buy. This is because it is highly likely that this mental state will make it impossible to trade properly, resulting in a small profit or stop loss, resulting in a large period of loss. (1h chart) The explanation of the 1h chart is about trading in a short period of time that corresponds to scalping and same-day trading among the above. In this story, whether BTC goes up or down is not the focus. Therefore, you should not view and interpret this content with a mid- to long-term perspective. The 'SHORT' position entered around 23390.5 is 1st: 20984.7-21826.1 2nd : 19411.7-20122.5 End of transaction: Around 17864.7 You can drag it for a long time in the same way as above. You can end the transaction whenever you want. In particular, if you touch 5EMA or M-Signal on the 1D chart, it is recommended to close the transaction and check the situation if possible. To enter a position that requires a quick response, we will inform you after touching 5EMA on the 1D chart. Currently, by touching the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart, the information about entry into a full-fledged position has been drawn on the screen. However, in order to maintain the 'LONG' position, it is expected that the M-Signal of the 1W chart and the M-Signal of the 1D chart will be crossed to continue the upward trend, so there must be a countermeasure for this. ------------------------------------------- (BTCKRW chart) It is necessary to check whether it is supported near 27317000 or near the point where the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart moves. If not, you should touch near the downtrend line (2) and see if it can go up. ------------------------------ - big picture A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K. This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
by readCrypto
5 Key Factors to affect BTC price1. If SVB trouble continues , the institution money is stunned, they have no way but to sell tokens for liquidity or daily operation, then the price might shake. 2. If USDC trouble continues, on one side BTC might goes up due to USDC's value goes down, but on the other side, BTC might goes down due to market confidence loss. 3. The global debt trouble, mutual funds trouble, liquidity crisis 4. The BTC price might dramatically goes up, if there are too many institutions shut down , then the FED will have no way but to decrease interest or make inflation to 20% to save the economy first. If that happens, the global assets price will goes up a lot. 5. China's policy
by OuChiBoy
Located in critical support and resistance zonesHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known. (USDT chart) (USDC chart) (BTC.D chart) (USDT.D chart) You need to see if it rises or falls while creating a gap on the USDT and USDC charts. On the USDC chart, we see a candlestick being created after a long time. It seems that many transactions have been made in the USDC market this time. BTC dominance continues to decline. That means that funds are concentrated on the altcoin side. The question is whether USDT dominance can fall in the 7.86-8.25 range. If it rises above 8.25, a significant pullback is expected. --------------------------------------- ---------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) The key is whether it can be supported around 20862.47 and rise above the HA-High indicator. If not, you should check if it is supported around the HA-Low indicator. (1D chart) The key is whether you can rise with support near the 2nd section (19176.93-20050.02), which is an important support and resistance section. When this is not the case and it falls, it is necessary to check whether the HA-Low indicator is rising and is about to be created. This is because if the HA-Low indicator appears to be newly created, it is important whether it is supported near that point. This is because the role of the HA-Low indicator is to indicate a low point. Therefore, support near the HA-Low indicator means that it is likely to rise. If it does not receive support and declines, it can be interpreted that it is likely to renew the recent low. (1D chart where Source of Strength is Heikin Ashi's Close) The RSI indicator associated with the HA-Low and HA-High indicators currently has a value of around 11. Therefore, when the RSI rises above 30, the HA-Low indicator is likely to move. If there is a decline in the 2nd zone, there is a possibility of a decline around the 3rd zone 17880.70 (the current maximum HA-Low indicator). When and how to proceed with the purchase depends on each person's trading strategy and analysis, so proceed accordingly. However, caution should be exercised as a trading strategy created after the price has declined is likely to lead the trade in the wrong direction. In order to prevent the side effects of the trading strategy, I think it can be minimized by proceeding with split trading. Also, if you follow the basic principles of trading, I think you can get away with some of the psychological anxiety caused by falling prices. The basic principles of trading have been discussed previously, so we will omit them. ------------------------------------------- (BTCKRW chart) It should rise above 27317000 to see if it can be supported. If not, you need to check if the price is holding around the downtrend line (2). If the HA-Low indicator rises when the decline continues or moves sideways from the current price level, the key is whether or not there is support near that point. ------------------------------ - big picture A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K. This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
by readCrypto
USDC De-peg could Crash DAI, USDD, & FraxI want to share my thoughts on the current situation with stablecoins, specifically USDC, DAI, and FRAX. It is my belief that if USDC were to collapse, DAI and FRAX would follow suit, causing a significant crash in the entire crypto market. Recent developments support this concern. Binance has paused the automatic conversion of USDC to BUSD due to high inflows and the increasing burden of conversion support. Additionally, Circle has burned over $1.6 billion USDC in cash over the past few hours, resulting in a decrease in the total supply of USDC from 43.55 billion to 42.3 billion, down $1.2 billion in just a few hours. Up to 25% of all USDC is uninsured in the SiVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, only $250,000 is guaranteed recoverable. FDIC assumed receivership of the banks $197 BN remaining assets. 50% of all start ups in the US are said to have some exposure to SiVB, either directly or indirectly. Circle group is facing potential bankruptcy if the run on USDC is not staved off.... Furthermore, only Tether is currently above a dollar, with only five of the 13 stablecoins trading at 99 cents USD. Even FRAX, which is backed by USDC, is currently trading at 0.92 USD. The general concern for all stablecoins may prompt investors to move their funds into BTC/ETH, causing a significant shift in the market. As always, it is important to stay informed and monitor the situation closely. Stay safe and make informed decisions.
GEMINI:USDCUSD
by BIG-BLACK-CRYPTO
Dropped below the middle of the wiggle sectionHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known. (USDT chart) (USDC chart) (BTC.D chart) (USDT.D chart) The USDT and USDC charts are still in an uptrend. Despite the decline of BTC, BTC dominance is showing a decline. This can be interpreted as meaning that the price defense of altcoins is taking place. This phenomenon is expected to make it difficult to predict the trend of the coin market in the future. Therefore, there is a growing possibility that in the current price range, i.e. below BTC's 29K, you will not be a good buy for next year's bull market. USDT dominance is showing a rise above 7.86. We need to see if we can get resistance around 7.86 and drop. If not, you should check if you get resistance around 8.25. --------------------------------------- ---------------------------- (BTCUSDTPERP 1D Chart) Based on the point 22471.5, 1. As you ascend, 1st: 23937.1-24294.1 2nd : M-Signal of 1M Chart You need to check if resistance is received near the 1st and 2nd order above. 2. When it goes down, 1st: 20984.7-21826.1 2nd : 19411.7-20122.5 3rd: Around 17864.7 You need to make sure it is supported in the vicinity of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd order above. As it fell below the 1st section, it fell below the center section of the shaking section. The HA-Low and HA-High indicators are correlated. This means that if it is supported and rises from the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to rise to the vicinity of the HA-High indicator. Conversely, if it falls from the HA-High indicator, it can be interpreted that there is a possibility of falling to the vicinity of the HA-Low indicator. Therefore, it is expected to fall to around 16422.6, the point of the HA-Low indicator, unless there is an anomaly. However, if USDT and USDC create a gap and maintain an upward trend, it is highly likely that it will not fall to the vicinity of the HA-Low indicator. Therefore, there is a possibility that it will drop to around 17.8K mentioned earlier. I think the 1st and 2nd sections are the support sections of the forces that led the rise in 15K-16K. Therefore, it is thought that there is a high possibility of receiving support in the 1st and 2nd sections, so we need to think about countermeasures. The price is currently down, so if you create a trading strategy now, you should be careful because that trading strategy may not work well for you. Recognizing that a shake-up is underway to reverse the mid- to long-term trend, you should align your pre-established trading strategy with your buys for next year's bull market. The buying method I mentioned yesterday is a buying method that does not require any plotting on the chart, and I thought it was suitable for buying for next year's bull market. The method is based on the MS-Signal indicator. (based on 1D chart) 1. Buy when the price is above the MS-Signal indicator and is about to close on a falling candlestick. 2. Buy when the price is below the MS-Signal indicator and is about to close on a rising candlestick. It is a method of continuously dividing and buying in the same way as 1 and 2 above. The most important thing in this method is the purchase amount when buying splits. If you set the purchase amount too high, there is a high possibility that your funds will be depleted quickly, and if the amount is too small, you will not be able to buy as much and it will rise. Therefore, it is important how you control the purchase amount. Therefore, when the price rises, you must recover the principal amount of the purchase by selling at each purchase unit price. (1h chart) The description of the 1h chart refers to trading in a short period of time that corresponds to scalping and same-day trading among the above. In this story, whether BTC goes up or down is not the focus. Therefore, you should not view and interpret this content with a mid- to long-term perspective. The 'SHORT' position entered around 23390.5 is 1st: 20984.7-21826.1 2nd : 19411.7-20122.5 End of transaction: Around 17864.7 You can drag it for a long time in the same way as above. It passed the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and fell. Therefore, full-fledged position entry is expected to be possible. ------------------------------------------- (BTCKRW 1D chart) You need to check if it is supported around 27317000. If not, a decline is expected around the downtrend line (2). Since it fell from the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart to be newly created, the possibility of falling to the vicinity of the HA-Low indicator of the 1W chart is open. The HA-Low indicator point on the 1W chart is at the 22424000 point. However, since the HA-Low indicator may move as the price declines, you should check if it is supported in the area where it moved. ------------------------------ - big picture A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K. This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
by readCrypto
2
Next period of volatility: Around March 20 (March 19-21)Hello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known. (USDT chart) (USDC chart) (BTC.D 1W chart) (USDT.D 1D chart) You need to see if it rises or falls while creating a gap on the USDT and USDC charts. You should check the BTC dominance chart to break out of the 43.75-45.68 zone and form a trend. It is showing a rise above 7.25 on the USDT dominance chart. So, you need to make sure you get resistance around 7.86. --------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) The key is whether it can receive support around 20862.47 and rise above the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart. If not, it is because there is a possibility of falling around the HA-Low indicator. (1D chart) The next volatility period is around March 20th. Accordingly, 1st: 21023.14-21853.06 2nd : 19176.93-20050.02 It is necessary to check whether it is supported in the 1st and 2nd sections. It will be important whether this pullback will make the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart rise and look like it is about to be created. This is because the HA-Low indicator is an indicator of possible buying points, and the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart indicates short-term buying points. If the HA-Low indicator seems to be created and is supported and rises near the point, there is a possibility that it will rise to the vicinity of the HA-High indicator. If not and it declines, it is expected to renew the recent low. Attention is focusing on whether the buying trend, which started below 17.8K, will start to defend the price around section A. ------------------------------------------ (BTCKRW chart) I touched the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart to be newly created. Therefore, being able to receive support around the 29218000 point has become an important issue. If it does not and falls below the downtrend line (1), I would expect a decline around 27317000. If the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart rises and looks like it is about to be created, you need to check if it is supported near that point. ------------------------------ - big picture A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K. This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
by readCrypto
9