Usdcadanalysis
USDCAD → Fall to 1.35200 or 1.40000!? Here's What We Know.USDCAD closed a bear candle below its bull channel support last week, leaving the bulls to wonder if this is the beginning of the end! Will the US Dollar recover and bring us back into the bull channel?
How do we trade this?
We closed a candle below the bull channel, it's reasonable to be biased to short in the short term. The price may want to make contact with the 200EMA at 1.35200 where it could show support and bounce to the upside. I think a short for 100 pips to 1.35200 is reasonable with a protective stop just above the bull channel support. It would be reasonable to take some or all profit just above the 200EMA, but you could hold some and see if the price falls further.
Key Takeaways
1. Closed Candle out of Bull Channel, Bias to Short.
2. Look at 4HR chart for a test of Bull Channel Support.
3. After Sell Signal, Target TP at 200EMA 1.35200
4. Watch for Support at 200EMA
5. RSI at 41.00, below Moving Average, Supports Short.
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USDCAD can Go Up by Falling Wedge Pattern⏰(1-Hour)⏰✅ USDCAD managed to form a Falling Wedge Pattern near the 🟢Support zone(1.37 CAD_1.363 CAD)🟢 .
🔨In the past hours, USDCAD managed to break the upper line of the Falling Wedge Pattern and is currently completing a pullback to this line.
🔔I expect USDCAD to rise to at least the Resistance line and 🔴Heavy Resistance zone(1.398 CAD_1.379 CAD)🔴 after completing the pullback.
U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
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USDCAD: UPDATE 25/11/2023! Dear Traders,
Our last idea on USDCAD, was a successful one it rejected at our area and dropped 160 pip; with this setup we anticipating price to do a retracement before it drop further. With accurate stop loss and risk management we can successfully achieve our target on this idea.
what do you think of USDCAD?
USDCAD - W1\D1USDCAD
W1 - The price can form a 3-wave structure from a strong level, which can lead to a price drop to the level of 1.32260 to the lower border of the flat
D1 - A triangular structure is formed; when it is fixed beyond the level of the triangle line, a sell entry can be considered.
What can you expect?
You can consider entering from the level 1.36549 (you can consider breaking the level, also wait for fixation at this level) with further movement to the target 1.34016. Cancel the idea so as not to take an increased risk on the idea 1.37815 - 1.38577
Short
Targets 1.35822 - 1.34895 - 1.34016 - 1.32260
USD/CAD Drop to 1.35000? This is An Optimal Short Setup!USD/CAD is forming a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern, potentially signaling the end of this bull channel. The price action has begun to stall and oscillate around the 1.37000 level and is now falling below the 200EMA. We are now faced with a reversal signal in a bull channel.
How do we trade this?
The probability of profit is greater longing in a bull channel because there are more bull bars than bear bars. We are faced with a potential reversal pattern, the head and shoulders, which negates our bias to long. Should we short?
If you're looking to swing trade, yes! Swing trading involves lower win rates because you're trading the reversal of a pattern. In other words, you bet against the trend, which means your probability of profit is low, but your reward is *much* higher as a result.
A decent short here would have been to enter around 1.38000. Since that price is behind us, I would short here and set a protective stop loss above the right shoulder at 1.38000, take profit with half your position just below the bull channel at 1.36000, and the rest just above the 200EMA at 1.35300. Once the first take profit is hit, move your stop up to the entry price or just above it to lock in profits.
Key Points
1. Bull Channel with a reversal pattern.
2. Potential Head and Shoulders Forming.
3. Gap down to 200EMA, reasonable profit target.
4. RSI has Room to Fall
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USDCAD: The US dollar faces a weekly decline as inflation easesThe US dollar faces its biggest weekly decline in months against the euro, yen and franc. This comes after investors began selling in anticipation of a near 100 basis point interest rate cut in the United States expected next year.
By Friday, the dollar had fallen 1.6% from a week earlier, trading at $1.0854 against the euro, its steepest decline since mid-July. For the week, it fell 1.6% to CHF 0.8882, and against the yen it fell 0.6% to CHF 150.53.
Oil prices hit a four-month low on Thursday, and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) also announced price cuts, adding to deflationary pressures. This week's data showed U.S. consumer prices stabilizing, convincing investors that inflation is falling and the days of rising interest rates are over.
Weak US economic data released on Thursday also supported this view. Futures markets are currently pricing in a 98 basis point (bp) rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year, up from 73 basis points a week ago.
Peter Dragicevic, strategist at cross-border payment company Copay, comments on the situation. He said the degree of mitigation being considered looked positive, but the direction was correct. He added that the momentum of US inflation is changing and the negative effects of past monetary tightening are beginning to show.
With the Fed's next easing cycle looming, Dragicevic expects the US dollar to weaken gradually over the next few quarters as US yields fall and US growth recovers.
USDCAD SCENARIOSThis idea base on Inducement on higher timeframe.
We might see a 2 options here! but im most expecting lower price of this pair.
This is not a financial advice, if im not explaining it too much here, I already know what Im doing, just a chart with context base on my understanding.
Trade at your own peril, This is not a financial advice.
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USDCADPair : USDCAD ( U.S Dollar / Canadian Dollar )
Description :
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line and Completed the Retracement at Fibonacci Level - 78.60%. Completed Impulsive Waves " 12345 " and " AB " Corrective Wave
Entry Precautions :
Don't Enter Until it complete Correction
USDCAD → Moves below 1.3700 followed by 50-day EMAThe FX:USDCAD pair experiences downward pressure following the release of weaker US inflation data on Tuesday. Moreover, the uptick in crude oil prices is likely supporting the Canadian Dollar (CAD), adding to the pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
The technical indicators paint a bearish picture for the USD/CAD pair. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the 50 level indicates downward pressure, signaling a bearish momentum and reflecting a weaker market sentiment.
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line, while above the centerline, has shown a divergence below the signal line. This suggests a potential shift in momentum towards a bearish sentiment in the USD/CAD pair.
The USD/CAD pair trades around 1.3690 during the early European session, after falling by almost 100 pips since the previous session. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3670 could act as the immediate support.
A firm break below the latter could influence the USD/CAD pair to navigate the region around the psychological level at 1.3600, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3591 level.
On the upside, the major level at 1.3700 appears to be a key barrier. If there is a breakthrough above the latter, the bulls could revisit the weekly highs around the 1.3843 level.
USD/CAD Daily Analysis - Pullback Before Major Bull Run!?USD/CAD bounced nicely off of 1.36300 for a nice 200+ pip run to the upside. We ended last week with a Daily Pin Bar Bear candle, and DXY (Dollar Index) was in a trading range. Where does that leave us for this week?
First, we're in a bull channel which means the probability of profit is in the bull's favor. I am looking for a long entry and have no interest in shorting the Daily chart at this time. Since our last candle was a bear pin bar, that may be an indication that we're entering a minor pullback and should wait until it concludes. The RSI is just above 50.00 and curling down, you may want another test at the 45.00 level before going up.
We also have established a minor trend line within the current bull channel with this last bounce. With a good bull signal bar in the 1.37000 area, I would consider entering a long with a stop loss just below the channel bottom and a take profit at the next Weekly previous high of 1.40000.
Key Points
1. Bull Channel, Always in Long
2. Last Candle was a bear Pin Bar
3. DXY in Trading Range
4. Look for at least a small pullback before longing.
5. RSI is just above 50.00, wait for a pullback
Until we see a minor pullback and bounce, I would wait to long and definitely not short unless it's on the lower timeframes (5m, 15m, 1hr).
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!