USD/CAD Bearish Trade Setup – Resistance Rejection & Target ProjUSD/CAD Bearish Trade Setup – Key Resistance & Target Projection
Analysis:
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 1.43248
Indicators:
EMA (200, Blue): 1.43024 (Key Dynamic Support)
EMA (30, Red): 1.43142 (Short-term trend)
Resistance Zone (Supply Area): 1.43300 - 1.43450
Support Level (Rejection Zone): 1.43085 - 1.43024
Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: Around the rejection level near 1.43142
Stop Loss: 1.43435 (Above the resistance zone)
Take Profit Target: 1.42355 (EA Target Point)
Projection:
Price is expected to reject the resistance zone, drop below the 200 EMA, and test the lower target at 1.42355.
If price confirms rejection at resistance, a short (sell) opportunity is valid.
A break above the stop-loss level could invalidate the bearish bias.
Conclusion:
Bearish momentum is anticipated if price respects the resistance zone.
Confirmation from price action (candlestick patterns) will strengthen the trade setup.
Usdcadshort
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#USDCAD 4HUSDCAD (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is currently trading within a well-defined downtrend channel and has reached the upper boundary, which is acting as strong resistance. Previous price action suggests that sellers have been active at this level, leading to potential bearish pressure.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity may arise if the price fails to break above the channel resistance and shows signs of rejection. If the resistance holds, further downside movement is expected within the channel structure.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: Consider selling near the channel resistance upon confirmation of bearish rejection.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the channel resistance to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target lower levels within the channel, aligning with previous support zones.
Market Sentiment:
As long as the price remains within the downtrend channel and respects the resistance, the bearish trend is likely to continue. However, a breakout above the resistance may shift the market sentiment toward bullish movement.
USD/CAD Bullish Setup: Key Support Holding for Potential Upside This chart represents a technical analysis of the USD/CAD currency pair on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:
Key Indicators & Levels:
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
200 EMA (Blue Line): 1.43906 (Long-term trend indicator)
30 EMA (Red Line): 1.43859 (Short-term trend indicator)
Support & Resistance Zones:
Support Zone (Purple Area, Lower): Around 1.43658
Resistance Zone (Purple Area, Upper): Around 1.44500
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Near 1.43753 (Current Price)
Stop Loss: Below 1.43658 (Red zone at 1.43158)
Take Profit Target: 1.45425 - 1.45433 (Blue zone)
Potential Trade Direction:
The price is expected to bounce from the support zone and move upwards.
A break above the resistance zone (~1.44500) would confirm bullish momentum.
The projected target is 1.45425 - 1.45433.
Conclusion:
Bullish Outlook: If the price respects the support zone and breaks above 1.44500.
Bearish Risk: If the price falls below 1.43658, the setup would be invalid.
EMA Perspective: The price is fluctuating around the 200 EMA, suggesting a potential trend shift.
Would you like a more detailed breakdown or any additional insights
USD/CAD - Harmonic Patterns and Momentum IndicatorsTechnical Analysis of USD/CAD - Harmonic Patterns and Momentum Indicators
Overview:
The USD/CAD chart illustrates price action on the hourly timeframe, incorporating harmonic patterns, Fibonacci retracements, and momentum indicators to identify potential reversal and continuation points. The presence of a Crab harmonic pattern suggests a critical turning point, while momentum oscillators provide additional confirmation.
**Harmonic Pattern Analysis:**
1. A **Crab harmonic pattern** is evident, with the price reaching the terminal point at approximately **1.44627**.
2. The **XA and BC Fibonacci extensions** align with key retracement levels, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal at this zone.
3. The price has **rejected the high point**, indicating potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
**Support and Resistance Levels:**
- **HOP (Harmonic Optimal Point):** **1.44627** - The potential completion zone of the Crab pattern.
- **XA Retracement:** **1.43968** - A key structural support level.
- **BC Level:** **1.43721** - A secondary support level for price continuation.
- **T2 (Target 2):** **1.42596** - A potential downside target if bearish momentum continues.
**Momentum Indicators:**
- **Stochastic RSI & Relative Strength Index (RSI):**
- The **Stochastic RSI** shows a recent overbought condition, followed by a decline, indicating potential bearish momentum.
- The **RSI also exhibits bearish divergence**, where price made a higher high while RSI formed a lower high, suggesting weakening bullish strength.
**Market Sentiment & Potential Trade Opportunities:**
- Given the rejection at **1.44627**, a **short position** could be considered if confirmation of further downside emerges.
- A break below **1.43968** could reinforce the bearish bias, with **1.42596** as a potential target.
- However, if the price finds support and rebounds, a bullish continuation could be anticipated, requiring further validation.
**Conclusion:**
The **Crab harmonic pattern, overbought momentum indicators, and Fibonacci confluence suggest a possible bearish reversal**. Traders should monitor **key support levels and momentum shifts** to determine whether the bearish scenario plays out or if buyers regain control. Risk management and confirmation signals are crucial before entering a trade.
USD/CAD Market Analysis: Potential Reversal from Resistance ZoneThe USD/CAD pair on the 15-minute timeframe is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal. The price has been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows while respecting a diagonal support trendline. However, it has now approached a key resistance zone around 1.43575, as marked by the M15 supply area.
The current price action suggests a rejection from this resistance, with wicks indicating selling pressure. If the price breaks below the ascending trendline, a further decline towards the 1.42794 support level is likely. The risk-to-reward setup favours short positions if confirmation of a bearish structure shift occurs.
Traders should monitor price action closely for a trendline break or a strong bearish engulfing candle to confirm the sell-off.
Thu 6th Mar 2025 Daily Forex Charts: 4x New Trade SetupsGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified 4x new trade setups this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the charts for my thoughts on these setups. The trades being a AUD/USD Buy, AUD/CHF Buy, NZD/USD Buy & a USD/CAD Sell. I also discuss some trade management. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Short I opened a short position based on the following reasons:
1) Daily candle on the 13th Feb decisively broke and closed below the support line around 1.430 zone and created fair value gap.
2) The price retraced to the FVG area and closed below the area this morning (I am looking at 4H and 1H for this).
3) Both MACD and RSI in Daily and 4H are in the bear zone.
4) 4h MACD has just crossed in the bear zone and is moving to the downside.
5) 4H MACD is also showing hidden divergence which indicates the continuation of the down trend.
6) 4H EMA is below EMA 200 and the candle closed below EMA 21.
Entry price 1.4190
Stop Loss: 1.43 (just above EMA 200 in 4H. It is a general stop and I will move it soon if the price moves to the downside)
Profit target: 1.3975 (I might manually close it if the price struggles to go below 1.4000)
Risk: Reward is 1:1.65
USDCAD in a corrective channel to continue in the downward move?USDCAD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
A higher correction is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 1.4175 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 1.4125.
We look to Sell at 1.4235 (stop at 1.4285)
Our profit targets will be 1.4135 and 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4200 / 1.4235 / 1.4250
Support: 1.4150 / 1.4135 / 1.4125
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USDCAD – looking for value to go short .. the week of 17 FebAs per my analysis, we are seeing a weak USD across all major and minor currency pairs on the weekly and daily time frames. Which pair to trade will probably become clearer on Mon, but for now I am looking at USDCAD.
Yes, that huge spike up gap is confusing, but that gap was quickly filled. If I just ignore that gap, the picture becomes clearer; now I find that the price action this entire year was in a range between 1.4468 and 1.4280. This range narrowed considerably to the lower part of the range (see the yellow box) and this led to my bearish bias. On Thu last week, price actually broke down (below the range). It could attempt a pull back to the area I have marked in green. This area is significant, it has acted as support multiple times. I also see that the bearish candles have started becoming larger and I feel that the bears are taking control of this market. If price does pullback to my zone, we could have a good trade location.
Given the scenario I described, I would take a short position, with stop around 1.4350 and initial target at the support near 1.4180. If the downtrend continues with momentum, I will consider extending my trade to a secondary target near 1.3950.
This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros