Usdcadsignal
UsdCad- Great R:R medium term tradeUndoubtedly, since mid-March, CAD has dominated the market, and with USD has strengthened more than 2500 pips, reaching a local low at 1.2 at the end of May.
A first leg of correction has followed and a new drop after this.
However, this new drop has found bids in 1.23 zone and we have 2 Doji candles on our weekly chart that can signal a higher low is in place.
I expect a new leg up from UsdCad and the price could reach and test 1.3 resistance.
Such trade can have a 1:5 risk to reward ratio and is negated with a daily close under the last recent low
Hawkish and No More QE Sends the USDCAD LowerJust now, Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish stance and decided to end to the quantitative easing which sent the USDCAD drops 100 pips in 2 hours.
Based on the 1H chart, the drop of USDCAD was coincided by the test on the level of 0.236 Fibonacci which could indicate a continuation of the downtrend of USDCAD.
USD/CAD Analysis ahead of BOC monetary policy and rate decision.Today bank of Canada will publish its monetary policy and rate decision. Overnight rates are expected to be unchanged.
The Bank of Canada may leave all policy levers unchanged today. But it's essential to watch what governor Tiff Macklem says during her statement today.
The inflation rate is currently at an 18-year high in Canada. Moreover, supply pressures could lead prices up further, with transportation contributing most recently as gasoline continues its climb towards record levels.
Higher gasoline price is helping CAD against all the major currencies as a commodity currency. That's a positive sign for the Canadian economy as well as CAD.
How should the Bank of Canada React?
The BOC is expected to continue trimming back its bond-buying program. Governor Marklelm calls "the reinvestment phase," where they keep a stable amount of funds invested in bonds while buying only enough new ones each year that are set to mature.
This will tighten monetary conditions, nudging up yields for those who invest with them but not likely be enough alone if inflation continues at this rate or higher. Governor Macklem may even suggest earlier interest rate hikes than Q2 2022 when things seem incredibly tight right now.
So, based on all the fundamental factors together, CAD is still strong enough. Moreover, CAD will be more robust in the upcoming days because several financial parameters support Canada.
But, as BOC is expecting to unchanged its monetary policy, USD/CAD may spike upside first, and then it will drop again to the 1.2300/1.2280 or below price zone.
Technical View:
If the monetary policy is unchanged from the present rate, our upside target is 1.2480/1.2500. Breaking above 1.2500, our final target is the 1.2580/1.2600 price zone.
But, if BOC delivers a too dovish speech, we will continue our buy order till 1.2700/1.2720 price zone.
On the other hand, if BOC delivers an unexpectedly hawkish statement, USD/CAD might drop below 1.2280 to 1.2200 price zone very soon. Though inflation is rising in Canada, gasoline price, asset purchase, and optimism in rising bank rate will benefit the CAD.
USDCAD pivotal points (long term sell)USDCAD previously rejected a major support/resistance level as well as a weekly fib level and the weekly 200ema.
The way i trade is from one major level to another, so the next tp is 1.20255. But before that, i knew that price could stop and react to this 1.2300 support level , which it did. i entered after seeing the 1H and 4H charts were illustrating a rising wedge , which is a sign that price is indeed going back up, temporarily. The rsi on both timeframes was below 30 (oversold) and the rsi on the 4h was even showing divergence .
I took opportunity of this retracement to what’s most likely a fib level to enter a short term buy before we continue down. Once the buy TP is reached, i’ll look for signs of rejection and take it back down to the original sell TP .
USDCAD SELL ideaUSDCAD has been making higher lows in the recent week, however I've noticed it has been trading in a consolidation
There are 2 entries here where the aggressive one is based on these confluences:
Retest of Trendline
Test of 61.8% Fib
Higher Low Created
Bullish Engulfing/Momentum Candle
Conservative entry would be on a break and retest of the consolidation box
USDCAD Entries + Exits! REVERSE IS SECURED IF PLAYED CORRECTLYThe ENTRY/TP zones are your entries as well as your exits.
Everything above the current candlestick is resistance, you would treat every zone above as a sell/potential buy break.
Everything below the current candlestick is support, which you would then treat every zone below as a buy/potential sell break if it hits the pip rule.
More info on the strategy and how to play it:
How To Play The Chart Entries/Exits:
Buy at green support entry, if it breaks by -35 pips (count it out) then enter a sell and ride to TP1, 2 and 3. Trail stop at each TP which means place your stop loss in profit but with enough room to be able to continue the sell if it continues. Same thing at resistance, sell but if broken by 35 pips then enter the buy and ride to TP1. Each TP is a support or resistance zone , so you could then even take a sell after TP1 for the buys have been hit and if it breaks out then just repeat.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated! Thank you to all of those who support me on a weekly basis, it really does mean a ton to me!
USDCAD top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
#USDCAD SELL OPPORTUNITY LONG TERMIf price fail to come higher than 1H EMA and also rejected from this area which is our static Resistance zone and manage to come lower than 1.26268 means short term bullish corrective move has ended and price can start another drop to 1.25630 and after that because of higher time frame bearish move can also see lower prices.
price at the moment is sitting on 1H & 4H EMA and also we can see bearish divergence which all suggest its a good area for looking to short this pair.
But we should remember if price goes higher than 1.26555 this analysis has failed and our short term trend has confirmed to be bullish.
USDCAD Entries + Exits! REVERSE IS GUARENTEED IF PLAYED CORRECTHow To Play The Chart Entries/Exits:
Buy at green support entry, if it breaks by -35 pips (count it out) then enter a sell and ride to TP1, 2 and 3. Trail stop at each TP which means place your stop loss in profit but with enough room to be able to continue the sell if it continues. Same thing at resistance, sell but if broken by 35 pips then enter the buy and ride to TP1. Each TP is a support or resistance zone , so you could then even take a sell after TP1 for the buys have been hit and if it breaks out then just repeat.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated! Thank you to all of those who support me on a weekly basis, it really does mean a ton to me!
USDCAD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsAs price moved in our direction since my last publication on this pair, we scooped over 350pips (see link below for reference purposes) before the reversal setup began. As at the moment, it appears that we are on the verge of a risk of further decline in the coming week(s) as the Dollar lost all it gained during the month of September 2021 and with the appearance of Head & Shoulder look alike, the possibility of a reversal increases.
The Greenback may continue to decline in the coming week as the U.S. yields dropped despite stronger than expected inflation and consumer spending.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Head and Shoulder)
Observation: i. The Loonie has been on a downward spiral since mid last year and the appearance of a reversal pattern at exactly 38.2% retracement of the Bearish Impulse leg cited on the weekly chart might be a signal confirming a risk of further decline in the coming week(s).
ii. The visual representation of a line drawn under pivot lows reveals the bullish momentum of price action since the month of June 2021 but a drop in momentum can be seen in the recent pivot point as the price did not launch as high as the previous before the second breakdown of Trendline.
iii. A baseline noted on the chart with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest describes a specific formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
iv. Completion of the reversal pattern can be confirmed at Breakdown/Retest of Neckline in the coming week as below C$1.26300 remains a comfortable level to sell the Dollar.
v. It is worthy to note that C$1.263000 has a memory for selling opportunities in recent times (April 2021).
vi. A Breakdown of the Neckline and Key level is a confluence for selling opportunities in the coming week with an option to add to our existing position at Breakdown/Retest of C$1.25000 level.
NB: It is very possible that the projected decline in price might be a short term trend... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 300 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 3 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.