USDCAD top of Channel Up rejection. Strong sell.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low and on Monday it hit its top (Higher Highs trend-line) and got rejected. This is a similar peak to November 01 2023, with the 1D RSI turning downwards as well on an early sell signal.
Initially, we expect at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested, so our Target is 1.37300.
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Usdcadsignals
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USDCAD Nears May 2020 High Amid Slumping Oil PricesThe USD/CAD currency pair is overbought, as signaled by the RSI and Stochastic indicators. The pair has the potential to consolidate near 1.395 if the 78.6% Fibonacci level holds as resistance.
On the other hand, the uptrend will likely resume if USD/CAD bulls can close and stabilize prices above the 1.409 mark.
Article: fxnews.me
USDCAD Set to Climb If Bulls Break Key 1.395 BarrierFxNews —The August 5 high at 1.395 is the immediate resistance that has prevented the uptrend from resuming.
From a technical perspective, the uptrend will likely resume if the bulls pull the USD/CAD price above this resistance. In this scenario, the USD/CAD's path to the %78.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.409 will likely be paved.
Please note that the critical support dividing the bull market from the bear market stands at 1.382, and the bullish scenario should be invalidated if USD/CAD falls below this level.
Full article: fxnews.me
Can USDCAD Hold 1.387 Support as Pressure Mounts?FxNews —The U.S. Dollar began a pullback against the Canadian Dollar after peaking at the 1.395 resistance on August 5. This dip aligns with an overbought signal from the Stochastic Oscillator since October 10. Currently, USD/CAD is around 1.387, filling the Fair Value Gap.
In the 4-hour chart, despite the recent decline, USD/CAD remains above the 100-SMA, keeping the main trend bullish. However, the Awesome Oscillator has turned bearish, and the Stochastic is below 20, signaling a potential consolidation phase.
> Immediate Support: 1.387
> Next Support: 1.382 (100-SMA)
> Critical Support: October 17 low at 1.375
> Resistance Levels: 1.395, 1.40
Forecast
If bears (sellers) close below 1.387, the current downtrend could extend to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, backed by the 100-period simple moving average.
USDCAD Approaching our sell entry.The USDCAD pair has been rising since the September 25 Low, all inside a 2-year Rectangle pattern of a wide range. The 1D RSI is about to enter the 70.00 overbought zone and every time it has done so within this pattern, a little later it got rejected to at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we will wait until 1.38500 and sell, targeting 1.36000 (which would be a -1.86% decline from the top, the minimum from the group of similar declines) or take the profit if the price hits the 1D MA50 before 1.36000.
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USDCAD Prepare for red October - November.The USDCAD pair hit both of our Targets on the July 25 (see chart below) sell signal:
The initial rebound stopped on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) where the price was rejected with the 1D RSI forming a pattern similar to May 2023. As a result, it is possible to see another short-term rebound but on the medium-term, we expect October and November to be another sell sequence.
The March - July 2023 fractal had two similar Bearish Legs of -4.10% each. So since the current first Leg was -3.64%, we expect the one that will follow now to be of around the same strength.
As a result we can target 1.32000 on low risk, just above the Support 1 level.
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USDCAD Buy opportunity on extremely oversold RSIThe USDCAD pair hit both of our targets on the sell signal we gave a month ago (July 25, see chart below) as it is currently on a 4-week red candle streak:
We now start switching to a bullish medium-term strategy as we get clear signals of a pending trend reversal. The price isn't only on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from Support 2 but the 1D RSI also hit the oversold bottom level of the December 26 2023 Low.
As you can see on this chart, every time the 1D RSI broke below the 30.00 oversold barrier in the past 12 months and reversed even a little, the USDCAD pair bottomed on the medium-term and targeted Resistance 1. Even the smaller April 14 2023 reversal (which wasn't from an oversold RSI) targeted the 0.618 retracement level.
As a result, we apply a two tier buy entry, one now and the 2nd at the less likely event the price approaches Support 1 (-5.40% decline, the most it had on a 2-year basis). In both cases, our Target is 1.37500 (0.618 Fib).
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USDCAD Approaching the most optimal sell level.The USDCAD pair is on the 2nd strong green 1W candle, following the rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching Resistance 1 (1.39000), the October 30 2023 High. This is technically the most optimal sell opportunity on a 1-year basis.
The short-term Target is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) on a potential contact with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.36450. Target 2 is at 1.34500 (marginally above the 0.618 Fib), which will be a -3.23%
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USDCAD Bearish trend intact. Not too late to sell.The USDCAD pair gave us a wonderful sell trade on our last analysis (April 17, see chart below) as we caught the exact moment of the rejection and reversal of the 4-month bullish trend:
The price has now broken below not just the (dotted) Channel Up but closed below the 1D MA50 too, confirming the trend shift to bearish. As you can see on this 1W chart, the pair always declined more following a break below the 1D MA50 and the minimum drop it has has been -3.23%.
As a result, our 1.34500 Target remains intact. A Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame may confirm an even deeper drop.
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Canada’s Ivey PMI and Employment Data: Impact on USD/CAD OutlookThe USD/CAD pair faces headwinds due to a strengthening Canadian dollar fueled by rising crude oil prices. This week's release of April employment statistics and Canada's Ivey PMI will provide insights into inflation and economic trends. Additionally, Fedspeak from Thomas Barkin and John Williams will be monitored closely. Recent US data suggesting a cooling labor market could prompt Fed rate cuts, contrasting with expectations of a possible Bank of Canada policy shift in June. The article concludes with a bullish stance on USD/CAD, recommending long positions with entry at 1.36989 and targets up to 1.39110, with a stop-loss at 1.34875.
USDCAD Near the 5-month High. Strong SELL.The USDCAD pair hit our 1.36200 Target (February 09, see chart below) and even broke above the Symmetrical Resistance Zone:
The price now sits at the top of the 2024 Channel Up, a similar pattern with the July 14 - November 01 2023 Channel Up. In fact the pair is approaching that November 01 High (Resistance 1) and being at the same time on an overbought 1D RSI while the 1W RSI is approaching the 13-month Resistance Zone, is turning into a very strong sell again.
Such tops have given a minimum of -3.23% declines (February 02 2023) during this 18-month period that the pair has been ranging. As a result, our new medium-term Target is 1.34500.
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UsdCad- New rise to 1.39?Towards the end of last year, FX:USDCAD found itself testing the crucial support zone at 1.32. Subsequently, the pair reversed its course and, as of the beginning of February, has been consistently forming higher lows on our daily chart while pressing the significant resistance level at 1.36.
I anticipate that this resistance will ultimately be breached, paving the way for a rise towards 1.39. My bullish stance on this pair remains intact as long as the sequence of lower highs is not violated.
USDCAD BUYING FROM STRONG SUPPORT !!!HELLO TRADERS
As I can see USDCAD is still looking for Strong Support Zone for making a new high this week CPI and US inflation data can give us these move our risk reward ratio is great on this trade its just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many traders Stay tuned with us for more updates!
USDCAD Short-term sell signal to the December Low.The USDCAD pair gave us a strong buy signal last time we traded it (February 09, see chart below) but was rejected right under the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level:
A similar rejection happened on December 07 2022 and April 25 2023 which resulted into a sell-off to the lower Support Zone. Even though the medium-term pattern is a (dashed) Channel Up, the recent Bearish Cross formation can initiate a sell-off to the lower Support Zone similar to those we mentioned before. The confirmation would be a 1D candle closing below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up.
As a result our short-term target is 1.32300 (just above the Support Zone). A closing above the Symmetrical Resistance Zone, invalidates that.
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USD/CAD could be nearing the end of its retracementA double top formed this month around a 50% retracement level on the daily charts ahead of its latest pullback. And it is interesting to note that the market tends to react around the 50% level.
The double top could actually be part of a 3-wave retracement, and that retracement could be nearing completion.
We saw a strong rally into the January high, hence the bias for an eventual continuation of that move. Bulls could look for a swing low to form around 1.3350 - which is near a high-volume node and another 50% level, and initially target the January highs - a break of which brings 1.36 into focus.
USDCAD Buy the bounce short-termOn our last USDCAD analysis (December 01 2023, see chart below), the price action gave us an excellent sell entry that easily hit our 1.3400 target:
The pair has since rebounded above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). We expect the 1D MA50 to hold and deliver a new short-term rebound towards the 0.618 Fibonacci level (Target at 1.36200), comfortably below the 1-year Symmetrical Resistance Zone. A closing above the that Zone would present a new buy opportunity after a pull-back near the 1D MA50 again with a target on the Resistance 1 level.
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USDCAD ON DAILY BEARISH !!!HELLO FRIENDS
As I can see USDCAD is trading inside a bearish channel and already created a fakeout now its testing channel border line can create double top on smaller TF which will indicate to enter in a sell entry our risk and rewards are fantastic on this pair let stay as a sniper when it come in our range we will enter and will hold till design level friends its just an trade idea we are looking for ur help and support on this pair share ur views with us in comment it will help many other traders