USDCHF: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current USDCHF chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
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Usdchf!
USDCHF → The bullish trend may get its continuationOANDA:USDCHF is entering the realization phase after a prolonged correction. A favorable background is created by the uptrend and rising dollar
The technical outlook on the daily timeframe is very good. The price after breaking the trend resistance tested the previously broken line. The currency pair after the false breakout managed to consolidate above the key point, marking an interim bottom and further prospects.
Technically, the focus is on the resistance at 0.911, if the bulls can overcome this area and consolidate above this level, the currency pair will be able to realize a rise to 0.918 - 0.93.
Resistance levels: 0.911
Support levels: 0.90555
Before breaking the resistance, the currency pair could test 0.90555 due to the liquidity generated below this area. But, the trigger that can provoke further growth is 0.911
Regards MARKET ANALYZER
USDCHF: Should we look for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, we will be provided with further buying positions in this pair with an appropriate risk-reward ratio.
The continuation of the pair’s rise and its placement in the supply zone will provide us with a selling position.
The President of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Schlegel, stated in an interview with SRF that while the SNB does not favor negative interest rates, it also cannot completely rule them out. He emphasized that implementing such a policy would not be a decision taken lightly.
In recent weeks, Schlegel has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of negative interest rates, particularly in light of Switzerland’s inflation dropping to 0.6% in December, which has raised concerns about deflation. However, he noted that temporary periods of negative inflation would not necessarily pose a problem.Additionally, Schlegel reaffirmed the SNB’s commitment to maintaining price stability over the medium term, within the 0–2% target range.
Currently, market expectations indicate a 60% probability that the SNB will cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% in March, with a 25% chance of rates reaching 0% by June.
In the United States, GDP data for Q4 2024 showed that the economy grew at an annualized 2.3% rate—below market expectations (2.6%) and lower than the 3.1% growth seen in the previous quarter. However, a 2.5% year-over-year growth rate remains substantial and aligns with the Federal Reserve’s outlook.
A key takeaway from the recent GDP report is the strong performance of U.S. consumers, who exceeded expectations with 4.2% growth in spending. According to CIBC, American consumers have shown a notable preference for durable goods, with spending in this category surging 12.1% last quarter—a figure significantly above pre-pandemic trends.
However, CIBC warns that other sectors of the economy are not as strong. Business investments remain weak, and government spending has played a crucial role in supporting economic growth. Additionally, a 0.9% decline in inventories, driven by weather disruptions and labor strikes, has negatively impacted GDP growth.
These factors are expected to persist into Q1 2025, as businesses stockpile inventory ahead of potential tariffs. However, when stripping out inventory effects, final sales to domestic buyers remain strong at 3.1%, which is nearly in line with the two-year average.
CIBC also believes that consumer spending will remain resilient, supported by rising asset-related incomes and millennials’ enthusiasm for technology and discretionary spending. That said, trade tariffs could ultimately shave 1% off GDP growth, with their effects likely to linger for some time.
Overall, CIBC concludes that while GDP growth may slow slightly under a Trump presidency, the decline is unlikely to cause major concern for the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains more focused on rising prices, their impact on inflation expectations, and wage pressures, as the economy remains strong but inflation is not yet fully controlled.
Today’s data reinforces the Fed’s data-dependent approach. Underlying growth is still around 3%, and there is no indication that consumers are scaling back spending, suggesting that they can absorb moderate price increases.
As a result, Nomura now expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2025, revising its earlier forecast, which had anticipated at least one rate cut in 2025.
USDCHF Is Going Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDCHF.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 0.908.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 0.922 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBPJPY Awaiting Breakout for Potential DropGBPJPY is currently trading at 192.150, with a target price set at 186.000. The trade setup anticipates a potential gain of over 600 pips if the price reaches the target. A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed, indicating market consolidation and indecision. Traders are closely watching for a breakout, which will determine the next major price move. If the breakout happens to the downside, strong bearish momentum is expected. The target of 186.000 is likely based on technical projections from the pattern's measured move. Confirmation of the breakout is crucial before entering the trade to avoid false signals. Risk management, including a stop-loss, is essential to protect against unexpected reversals. Economic events and central bank policies could influence GBPJPY’s movement. Monitoring volume and price action near breakout levels will help assess the trade’s strength.
USD/CHF SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USD/CHF pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 0.902 level.
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USDCHF - Buy Setup After Resistance BreakOANDA:USDCHF has broken out of its descending channel and is now pulling back to retest the key breakout zone, which aligns with a critical support level. This retest is crucial in confirming the breakout and establishing bullish momentum.
If buyers defend this level and bullish rejection patterns emerge (e.g., bullish engulfing candles or long lower wicks), it could signal the continuation of the upward move. I anticipate a rally toward the 0.91250 level, which has previously acted as a significant area of interest.
This setup aligns with the idea of a break-and-retest pattern, offering an opportunity to join the bullish trend at a favorable entry point.
⚠️ Key considerations:
Monitor the price action closely for confirmation before entering long positions.
If the 0.90650 level fails to hold, a deeper retracement may occur, invalidating the bullish setup.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share in the comments!
USD/CHF "The Swissie" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CHF "The Swissie" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The loot's within reach! Wait for the breakout, then grab your share - whether you're a Bullish thief or a Bearish bandit!"
Buy entry above 0.91200
Sell Entry below 0.90300
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks.
Target 🎯: -Bullish Robbers TP 0.92400 (or) Escape Before the Target
-Bearish Robbers TP 0.89400 (or) Escape Before the Target
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
The USD/CHF "The Swissie" Forex market is currently experiencing a neutral trend, with a slight bias towards bullishness., driven by several key factors.
💨Fundamental Outlook:
- Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will impact USD/CHF. A rate hike could strengthen the dollar.
- Swiss National Bank (SNB): The SNB's monetary policy decisions will influence the Swiss franc's value. A dovish stance could weaken the franc.
- Global Economic Conditions: The ongoing global economic uncertainty and trade tensions could impact USD/CHF
💨Macro Outlook:
- US Economy: The US economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will play a crucial role in shaping the economy.
- Swiss Economy: The Swiss economy is expected to remain stable, with low inflation and a strong labor market. The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) monetary policy decisions will influence the economy.
- Global Economy: The global economy is facing uncertainty due to trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and the COVID-19 pandemic. This could impact USD/CHF.
- Commodity Prices: Commodity prices, particularly oil prices, could influence USD/CHF.
💨Sentimental Outlook:
- Institutional Investors: 55% bullish, 45% bearish
- Retail Traders: 52% bullish, 48% bearish
- Hedge Funds: 58% bullish, 42% bearish
- Large Banks: 60% bullish, 40% bearish
💨Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is slightly bullish, with a majority of investors expecting USD/CHF to rise.
💨COT Data:
Current COT Data (as of January 24, 2024):
- Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators): Net long 53,129 contracts (previous week: net long 49,351 contracts)
- Commercial Traders: Net short 45,678 contracts (previous week: net short 42,191 contracts)
Upcoming COT Data (expected release on February 2, 2024):
- Expected Change: Speculators may increase their net long positions, while commercial traders may reduce their net short positions.
💨Upcoming Events:
- Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Expected to impact USD/CHF
- SNB Monetary Policy Decision: Will influence the Swiss franc's value
- Global Economic Data Releases: Will provide insights into the global economic outlook
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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USDCHF H4 | FOREX BEEHey Traders,
Looking at the USD/CHF H4 chart, here's my technical analysis:
Observations:
1. Descending Channel:
- The pair is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, indicating bearish momentum.
- The price recently touched the upper boundary of the channel and appears to be pulling back.
2. Key Levels
- Support Zone (Red Box): Around 0.8965, coinciding with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement, acting as a strong potential demand zone.
- Resistance Zone (Red Line): Near 0.9140, where previous price reactions and the channel's upper boundary converge.
3. Potential Scenarios:
- Bullish Breakout: If the price breaks above the descending channel and clears 0.9140, it could signal a reversal to the upside.
- Bearish Continuation: If rejection continues at the upper boundary, the price may head toward the 0.8965 zone, potentially retesting the 0.50 Fibonacci level or even lower near 0.8840 (0.236 Fibonacci).
### My Thoughts:
This setup currently favors short-term bearish momentum unless a breakout above 0.9140 occurs. A sell opportunity may arise on rejection near the current level, while a clean break out of the descending channel offers a potential bullish reversal signal.
USDCHF - Short after filling the imbalance !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill that huge imbalance and then to reject from bearish OB.
Fundamental news: On Wednesday (GMT+2) we will see results of Interest Rate in USA, news with high impact on currency.
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USDCHF 1D Bullish Trend against Weekly ResistanceOANDA:USDCHF
📶 Technical Analysis
Weekly (1W) Chart:
In 2023 and 2024, USDCHF formed a strong support level around 0.8400 and a strong resistance level around 0.9200.
As of January 2025, the price has tested the 0.9200 resistance level again, suggesting a potential battle around this key level.
Daily (1D) Chart:
Aug - Sep 2024: The 0.8400 support was tested multiple times, holding strong, and the price reversed, forming a bullish trend from October 2024 until now.
January 2025: The price tested the strong resistance at 0.9200, and we can now see a clear correction towards the trendline and the middle support level around 0.9000.
🔤 Overall Outlook:
🟢 Long Position: Be cautious near the weekly resistance at 0.9200, as there could be a strong pullback and higher volatility, making it riskier for a long trade.
🔴 Short Position: Consider waiting for a trend breakout below the current correction bottom, or a formation of a new lower low below 0.8950 to confirm further downside.
The bullish trend continues on the daily chart, but the price is approaching a strong resistance level at 0.9200.
Fundamental analysis is necessary to assess the economic factors and expectations that may drive the price in either direction. Without clear fundamental drivers, the technical picture remains uncertain for now.
Currently, there’s no clear setup for my trading strategy, as the price is near a strong resistance and requires confirmation through either a breakout or pullback to make further decisions.
Bearish drop?USD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our tke profit.
Entry: 0.9091
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.9137
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.9007
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Heading into overlap resistance?The Swissie is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.9092
1st Support: 0.9011
1st Resistance: 0.9152
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USD/CHF | Bearish Season IncomingHigher timeframes (3-Day+) are at a nice resistance zone to see short plays only as we head into the next season
We got a ~600 pip swing but first I'd like to see maybe one more long position back to the main resistance zone for a high sell entry up top and then scaling in as price falls after more confirmation and price development
Trend Reader is looking nice too as its in the overbought zone signaling a bearish play to come with clear divergence
The blue EMA at around 150-Days also acts as good dynamic Support/Resistance to help confirm that flipside once price looks to break below with a rejected pullback.
USD/CHF Poised for a Bullish Breakout: Path to Parity Bullish Scenario 🚀📈
1. Breakout Above the EMA (200) 🔺:
If the price closes above the 200-week EMA (0.9082), it could confirm a long-term bullish trend reversal.
A strong push may target key levels like 0.9500 and eventually 1.0000 (parity) 🎯, as shown by the projection arrow.
2. RSI Support 💪:
The RSI above 50 indicates that buyers are gaining momentum.
If RSI trends toward 70, it signals even stronger bullish momentum ✅📊.
3. Higher Highs and Higher Lows 📶:
The chart is forming higher highs and higher lows, a classic signal of an uptrend.
This pattern supports a move toward higher price levels 🚀.
🔥 Key Takeaway: A breakout above the EMA could spark a powerful rally, with parity (1.0000) as a major psychological target.
USDCHF - 1hr ( Intra Day Sell Target range 120 PIP ) The USD/CHF currency pair, analyzed within the context of a one-hour chart and utilizing a large-scale perspective, presents a critical bearish outlook following a significant breakout from a key level identified at 0.90800. This pivotal point, marked by high trading volume, serves as an essential indicator for potential downward momentum in the market. Traders should closely monitor price movements around this level, as sustained trading below 0.90800 may confirm the bearish sentiment and signal further declines. Conversely, any failure to maintain this breakout could indicate a potential reversal, necessitating a reassessment of market conditions.
☑️ Pair Name : USD/CHF
Time Frame : 1hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
Best Break Our / Key level's 1hr Tf
☑Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 0.90800 Point
USD/CHF H4 | Falling to overlap supportUSD/CHF is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.9009 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.8949 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.9102 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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USD-CHF Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CHF is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is
Making a bearish correction
But the price will soon hit
A horizontal support of 0.9020
And after the retest we will
Be expecting a local
Bullish rebound
Buy!
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