Potential bullish rise?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.8976
1st Support: 0.8940
1st Resistance: 0.9049
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USDCHF
Swiss franc dips as Swiss GDP declinesThe Swiss franc is down for a second straight trading day. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8980, up 0.38% on the day.
The Swiss economy slowed to 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 0.4% in Q3 and in line with expectations. This was the weakest expansion since Q2 2023. Construction weakened in the fourth quarter but manufacturing and exports rebounded from the previous quarter. Annualized, GDP rose 1.5%, down from 1.9% in Q3, the softest expansion in three quarters.
The weak GDP data supports the case for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates. The central bank is in the midst of an easing cycle and showed its aggressive side in December when it chopped rates by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%.
The SNB only meets on a quarterly basis, magnifying the importance of each meeting. The next meeting is on March 20 and the markets have priced in a 25-bps cut at close to 100%. There are two key factors that Bank policymakers will be looking ahead of a rate decision - inflation levels and the exchange rate. Inflation has fallen by 0.1% for four consecutive months and is putting pressure on the SNB to continue lowering rates. The next inflation report is on March 5 and another soft report would cement a rate cut at next month's meeting. The SNB also uses monetary policy to ensure that the Swiss franc is not too strong, which would hurt the export sector.
The US releases second-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 later today. The initial estimate came in at 2.3%, down from 3.2% in the third quarter. The US economy remains strong and inflation has been largely contained. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year only once or twice, unless the economic data does not evolve as expected.
USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8992. Above, there is resistance at 0.9018
0.8969 and 0.8943 are providing support
USDCHF to continue in the downward move?USDCHF - 24h expiry
Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
Our short term bias remains negative.
Previous support level of 0.8965 broken.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
50 4hour EMA is at 0.8987.
We look to Sell at 0.8987 (stop at 0.9012)
Our profit targets will be 0.8915 and 0.8905
Resistance: 0.8974 / 0.9004 / 0.9020
Support: 0.8950 / 0.8930 / 0.8912
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USDCHF sideways ahead of US GDP figuresThe USDCHF currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation.
The key trading level is at 0.8946, the previous consolidation price range, and the rising support trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 0.8946 level could target the upside resistance at 0.9033 followed by the 0.9050 and 0.9087 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 0.8946 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 0.8913 support level followed by 0.8860.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDCHF -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
0.89147 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The ascending flag taking shape suggests we will soon see another leg higher.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 0.89115 on 02/25/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 0.90367, 0.91497, 0.92218 and more heights is expected.
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#USDCHF 4HUSDCHF (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is currently respecting a channel support, indicating that buyers are holding the price within the upward structure. This suggests that the market may continue its upward movement as long as the support remains intact.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise if the price confirms a bounce from the channel support, signaling potential bullish continuation.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered near the channel support after confirmation of bullish price action.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the channel support to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target key resistance levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The channel support suggests that buyers are still active in the market. A strong rejection from this level can provide better confirmation for a buy setup.
USD/CHF H4 | Rising into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceUSD/CHF is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.8995 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.9040 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.8918 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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Potential bullish rise?USD/CHF has reacted of the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8918
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 0.8881
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.9006
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDCHF Will Fall! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDCHF.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.896.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.891 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USD/CHF SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Previous week’s red candle means that for us the USD/CHF pair is in the downtrend. And the current movement leg was also down but the support line will be hit soon and lower BB band proximity will signal an oversold condition so we will go for a counter-trend long trade with the target being at 0.912.
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USD/CHF Rebounds from Yearly LowUSD/CHF Rebounds from Yearly Low
As shown in the USD/CHF chart, the exchange rate dipped below 0.89250 Swiss francs per US dollar yesterday—the lowest level since December 2024. The Swiss franc, often seen as a safe-haven currency, may gain appeal due to:
→ heightened geopolitical tensions;
→ uncertainty surrounding Trump's plans to impose trade tariffs on 4 March.
Technical Analysis of USD/CHF
Fluctuations in 2025 have formed a downward channel (marked in red), with bearish sentiment prevailing in February as key psychological levels continue to be breached (as indicated by arrows):
→ in mid-February, bears pushed the price down from 0.905;
→ later, 0.900 acted as resistance.
If bearish momentum persists, further resistance may emerge around 0.895 and the median of the downward channel.
The upcoming market direction will likely be influenced by key economic data releases:
→ Swiss GDP (11:00 GMT+3) and US GDP (16:30 GMT+3) tomorrow;
→ US Core PCE Price Index (16:30 GMT+3) on Friday—an important inflation gauge.
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USDCHF H4 | Bullish RiseBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 0.8920, which is a swing low support that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibo extension and the 78.6% Fibo projection.
Our take profit will be at 0.8956, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.8097, which is a multi-swing low support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bullish rebound off overlap support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8902
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 0.8849
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.8968
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDCHF Bearish Breakdown on 4H Chart: Double Top FormationUSDCHF has confirmed a Double Top pattern, followed by a trendline breakout, signaling potential downside momentum. The rejection from the resistance zone led to a breakdown, aligning with Fibonacci extension targets. The first bearish target (Level 1) is set at 0.89215, with a further drop toward (Level 2) at 0.88661 if selling pressure continues.
USDCHF On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USDCHF is below:
The market is trading on 0.8975 pivot level.
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 0.9038
Recommended Stop Loss - 0.8952
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCHF INTRADAY testing important support at 0.8946 The USDCHF currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the rising support zone.
The key trading level is at 0.8946, the previous consolidation price range, and the rising support trendline (Daily timeframe) zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 0.8946 level could target the upside resistance at 0.9033 followed by the 0.9087 and 0.9120 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 0.8946 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 0.8913 support level followed by 0.8860.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 0.90800 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 0.89000(or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
🔴Fundamental Analysis
US Economic Trends: The US economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2025, driven by consumer spending and business investment.
Swiss Economic Trends: The Swiss economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2025, driven by exports and investment .
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, while the Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain a negative interest rate policy.
Trade Policies: The US-Switzerland trade relationship is expected to remain stable, with no major changes in trade policies anticipated.
⚫Macro Economics
Global GDP Growth: The World Bank forecasts global GDP growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2025, up from 3.2% in 2024 .
Inflation Rate: Global inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2025, driven by increasing demand and supply chain disruptions.
Interest Rates: Central banks are expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, supporting currency markets.
Unemployment Rate: The global unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.4% in 2025, driven by job growth in emerging markets.
🔵COT Data
Net Long Positions: Institutional traders have reduced their net long positions in USD/CHF to 35%
COT Ratio: The COT ratio has fallen to 1.6, indicating a bearish trend
Open Interest: Open interest in USD/CHF futures has decreased by 8% over the past month, indicating declining investor interest
🟢Sentimental Outlook
Institutional Sentiment: 40% bullish, 60% bearish
Retail Sentiment: 35% bullish, 65% bearish
Market Mood: The overall market mood is bearish, with a sentiment score of -30
🟡Technical Analysis
Moving Averages: 50-period SMA: 0.9104, 200-period SMA: 0.9034.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 4-hour chart: 38.21, daily chart: 34.14.
Bollinger Bands: 4-hour chart: 0.90200 (lower band), 0.9124 (upper band).
🟠Overall Outlook
The overall outlook for USD/CHF is bearish, driven by a combination of fundamental, technical, and sentimental factors. The expected decline in US interest rates, slower Swiss economic growth, and bearish market sentiment are all supporting the bearish trend. However, investors should remain cautious of potential upside risks, including changes in global trade policies and unexpected economic data releases.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
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USDCHF h1 | Bounce Off the Fibo ConfluenceBased on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling our buy entry level at 0.8948, a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibo and the 161.8% Fibo extension, forming a strong Fibonacci confluence where price could find support
Our take profit is set at 0.8980, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 0.8918, below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USDCHF shortMy analysis was on the 1 hour timeframe and a small position. When I looked at the daily timeframe, I came across a range that could work very well. I have a Fibonacci line that is 86 and I love this line. In one of my tutorials, I came across this line that in range bounds, the trend reversal always comes and touches 86. It has touched the high level and is changing the trend downwards and we can ride this wave.