Usdchfforecast
USDCHF - Longing based on Mongerskit Trading system - 4hrsWe had a buy signal generated by our system today, We know the new trend of this pair is long now.
We are going to wait for a pull back to one of the 3 minor resistance levels, after a clear bullish candle that confirms the end of the pullback, we shall long it.
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USDCHF profit target reached, time to turn bearishSell below 1.0136. Stop loss at 1.0116. Take profit at 1.0071.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has bounced up perfectly as expected yesterday and has reached our profit target. We turn bearish closing off our profitable bullish position because of the changing elements. We now look to sell below 1.0136 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance) for a push down to 1.0071 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 95% level.
USDCHF approaching major support, prepare to buyBuy above 1.0033. Stop loss at 1.0000. Take profit at 1.0090.
Reason for the trading strategy (technicall y):
Price is approaching major support at 1.0033 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal support) where we expect to see a bounce towards at least 1.0090 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) is approaching our long term ascending support where we expect a bounce from.
USDCHF turn bullish with long term resistance brokenBuy above 0.9958. Stop loss at 0.9900. Take profit at 1.0044.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has broken our long term descending resistance-turned-support line signalling a change in momentum to bullish. We turn bullish above 0.9958 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, pullback support) for a push up to 1.0044 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance).
RSI (55) has made a bullish exit similar to the one seen in price and is also above ascending support.
USD/CHF ... Same view as Morgan StanleyUSDCHF has under-performed in the broad USD rally. Interest rate differentials for both 10 and 2y maturities imply USDJPY should trade above parity.
CHF remains a risk sensitive currency but the magnitude of the moves are smaller than for the JPY. Expectations for fiscal easing in the US are helping the USD and risk appetite, which is good for this currency pair.
While EURCHF has fallen through the beloved 1.08 level and looks for lower I suspect the downside for EURCHF is likely to be limited with the SNB standing ready to intervene to support the lower boundary.
In any event focusing on USDCHF as it has diverged from where relative yield differentials suggest it should be trading.
The risk to this trade is an equity market sell off or turnaround in US yields.