USD/CHF could continue its breakout to the UPSIDE!Hey tradomaniacs,
USD/CHF could continue its breakout in order to complete the correction❗️
Technical aspects:
1️⃣ False breakout below monthly support
2️⃣ Violation of upper Trendline and a breakout of Trendchannel
3️⃣ 5-Wave-Pattern completed heading into an A-B-C-Correction
4️⃣ MAC-D bullish divergence with equal Lows
5️⃣ High volatility at Key-Support (SL-Fishing)
7️⃣ Low open interest below key-support-zone
8️⃣ 55 EMA and 21 EMA violated and crossed
9️⃣ Momentum to the upside with chasing PoC of higher prices
Correlations:
1️⃣ CHF/JPY falling indicating CHF weakness as USD vs JPY still weak
2️⃣ DXY (US-DOLLAR-BASKET) rising due to risk-off-mood in the market
3️⃣ S&P500 as expected rejected off Trendline and tends to correct
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Peace and good trades
Irasor
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PS: This week I only share my analysis as market-conditions are still weak due to loq volume and liquidity! Will be back with signals next week!
Usdchfprediction
fly USDCHF 181220looks like it has reversed from a downtrend change upward, the main reason for this is the divergence of the indicator MACD
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USDCHF- 0.88 - 0.87 looks like a strong support areaUSD/CHF - a map for the future
USDCHF has been in a huge downtrend cycle lasting 40 years from 1971 until 2011
In truth the top was in 1970, therefore perhaps it could be even a 50 year cycle ending in 2020.
By the way, 0.88 - 0.87 is a confluence of several systems of analysis and therefore looks like a strong support area, perhaps capable of a valuable bounce for the price, or even to start a reversal.
The price have already made kind of a double bottom in 2011 and 2015, and it seems approaching again the same rising trendline and the price could tap it around september/October.
This would be a triple touch of the trendline, which, if the price would hold above it with weekly candle close, would be really likely to develop a reversal formation for a while.
By the way, in the charts there are 4 important rising trendlines, as well as all the other main horizontal support and resistance which could be useful to assess other trades in the future.
L.S. MASTER TRADING SYSTEM
USDCHF| FALLING WEDGE|ANALYSISPRICE ACTION:
• Price action finds first resistance (1), where it reverses direction and goes downwards till
finding first support (2).
• Price action reverse direction from support (2) and goes upwards, till finding the second
resistance (3) which must be lower than the first resistance (1).
• Price action reverse direction from resistance (3) and goes downwards, till finding the
second support (4), which must be lower than the first support (2).
• The pattern is completed when price action reverse direction from (4) and goes upwards till
it breaks the wedge's upper border at point (5).
TRADING THE PATTERN
• Trade entry: after breaking the wedge's upper border at point (5), with an entry after
confirming the breakout.
• Take profit: identified by measuring the vertical distance from the wedge's highest high (1)
to the wedge's lower border, that measurement is then applied from the breakout point
(5).
• Stop loss: the wedge's lowest low (4).
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USDCHF LONG SETUP IN THE FUTUREThe price reached the bottom of a downtrend, but since we can't really talk about a bottom of a downtrend, it will be a risky trade, because trend is our friend, right? and we should trade in the trend direction. So if we take a look at the RSI combined with the bollinger bands, we see that the price reached the low level on all timeframes. We will wait until the price breaks the 15 min downtrend of the leg and retests the previous high of the 15 min. We may enter around the 0.89500 level after the retest was made, at the closure of an engulfing bar which will break the previous ones. TP1-0.89870, TP2-0.90300, SL-below the low of the 4h, for a safe one.(around 0.89030), or a tight one, below the higher low that will be created, i'd say 0.89230 is a good one.
UsdChf- to break important supportThe trend for UsdChf is strongly and clearly down. Since the recent touch of 0.9 support, the pair traded in a 200 pips range and I think this range is about to broken down.
With DXY also strongly bearish, UsdChf can drop to 0.87 zone in the medium term.
0.9050-0.9070 could be a good place to search for selling signals.
My bearish outlook is negated by a daily close above 0.92
USDCHF 100 Pips Swing trade Will it break 100,200 EMA resistanceUSDCHF
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⏳14 Hour chart
🎲 Swing trade
⛳️Bullish entry
—————-❇️——————-
Detailed analysis 💬
1️⃣ 0.90000 Swiss national bank intervention level
2️⃣ 0.90000 Strong trend reversal area
3️⃣ Positive risk sentiment, Vaccine news, Selling off CHF
4️⃣ RSI has reached around 39.00 Oversold condition
5️⃣ MACD about to cross the signal line, histogram is slowly fading towards green
6️⃣ Stochastic reached below 25 Oversold condition
7️⃣ Short term Technical support - Bullish
8️⃣ 50,100,200 EMA cluster resistance for bull
9️⃣ Bollinger bands reached lower side of the band
🔟 Possible swing target-0.91400 (23.6% Fibonacci) Point of control area
#️⃣ Overall long-term trend- Bearish
—————-⚜️——————-
Bullish entry #usdchf
Entry price -0.90400
Take profit 01 - 0.90900 (50 Pips)
Take profit 02 - 0.91400 (100 Pips)
🚫 Stop lose 0.90050 ( 35 Pips)
⬆️ 1.11% Growth expected
⤴️ Account growth .39 : 1.11
✅ Risk reward ratio 1 : 2.84
—————-⚜️——————-
USDCHF - Expanding Diagonal PatternThe upcoming pattern is too rare, the analysis may confront error. If the pattern is detected correctly, we should wait for the price to rise to the level of 0.9296 as an initial target.
We will get the confirmation of this pattern, when the price crossing the range of 0.9147.