Sell USDCHF Channel BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the H1 chart exhibits a bearish signal suggesting a potential decline in the coming hours. A recent downside breakout from a descending channel pattern could offer a shorting opportunity.
Key Points:
Descending Channel Breakout: The price has been trending downwards within a channel defined by two falling lines, one for resistance and one for support. This indicates ongoing selling pressure and potential for further decline.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price near 0.8620, offering an entry point close to the breakout level.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the support levels of 0.8540 and 0.8470, marking previous support zones within the channel.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the resistance line of the broken channel at 0.8700
Fundamental Updates :
Stronger Swiss Franc: The Swiss Franc has been gaining strength recently due to its safe-haven appeal amidst global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. This could put downward pressure on USD/CHF.
Thank you
Usdchfshort
USDCHF: Experts predict a difficult year for the Swiss Franc“The franc is once more overvalued,” stated David Alexander Meier, economist at Julius Baer Group and pinnacle fourth-region FX forecaster in keeping with Bloomberg.
Mr. David expects the franc to fall approximately 4% from modern tiers with the aid of using the quit of the yr while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stops assisting the foreign money. This is extra than double the common estimate of economists.
His view is primarily based totally at the SNB`s current U-turn, which signaled that it might possibly ease - if now no longer absolutely reverse - the overseas foreign money income that helped the CHF top in 2015 towards the EUR and EUR. USD. Last week, SNB President Thomas Jordan stated the terrible effect of the highly-priced franc on exporters.
The economist expects the SNB, which has the second one-lowest hobby charge amongst G-10 countries, to begin decreasing hobby prices while inflation in Switzerland stabilizes beneath the 2% goal with the aid of using the quit of this yr. He stated the SNB is not likely to preserve shopping for overseas foreign money reserves, an pastime that has stopped considering that the second one region of 2022. That will placed stress at the franc, even extra than the decline in overseas foreign money income.
The franc rose almost 10% towards the U.S. greenback closing yr, the largest benefit the various G-10 and its best-appearing foreign money considering that 2010. However, till January this yr, CHF has slipped in conjunction with G-10 currencies and misplaced approximately 2.5% of its cost amid a more potent dollar way to developing expectancies of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) easing economic policy. .
USD / CHF BUYSCurrently trending Bullish so ideally I would prefer to look for a long once the 4h closes above structure and blue zone with a retest and higher high close on a smaller time frame.
Alternatively I would look for a position if the 4 h candle pulls back and rejects from the blue or yellow zones with a 1h bullish engulfing close
USDCHF - Short pattern confirmed ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we have the confirmation of SH + BOS + FVG pattern. Price firstly raided buy side liquidity with a stop hunt then broke the structure and reacted from imbalance (FVG). I expect bearish price action to the support zone.
Fundamental news: Next week is full of news in USA. Firstly on Wednesday we have Interest Rate followed by FOMC Conference, then on Friday NFP and Unemployment Rate. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
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USDCHF (H4) Reacts negatively to the 0.618 Fibonacci zoneOANDA:USDCHF USDCHF (H4) Reacts negatively to the 0.618 Fibonacci zone of the previous down wave. With a bearish red candle, we can execute the order:
Sell now at 0.86692
SL at 0.86866
TP1 at 0.86541
TP2 at 0.86364
TP3 at 0.86120
Note: capital management 2%
USDCHF TO 0.84000?Is it time for the USDCHF to head lower?
Let's look at this pair from a technical perspective.
To understand the direction of a pair, we have to first look at the higher timeframes. The monthly, weekly and daily timeframe suggest that this is a downtrend.. It's not a matter of where the trend is headed, because obviously, it's a downtrend..
Since we "know" what trend this is and where it could lead, our job is to look for trading opportunities in this direction. Our job is to SELL.
Do we just wake up and sell? Well, no. We all have our entry patterns, so we do well to employ such methods as we look to trade USDCHF.
We can clearly see reacting to the key level around 0.87000. If price does not violate this key area, then we can be "sure" this could be a lower high. If this level does hold, then price is likely to trade lower into 0.84000.
USDCHF Weekly planPlan for USDCHF for the coming week: I am waiting for the price to trigger my short zone, around 0.874/0.878. Here i will check for divergences on smaller timeframe, to increase my shorts. I placed a sell limit at 0.87650 considering that 0.877 is a strong resistance, and i expect a pullback anyways from there
USDCHF to see a higher correction from 38.2% pullback?USDCHF - 24h expiry
Levels close to the 38.2% pullback level of 0.8682 found sellers.
Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high.
Daily signals are mildly bearish.
Short term MACD is moving lower.
A higher correction is expected.
We look to Sell at 0.8685 (stop at 0.8715)
Our profit targets will be 0.8610 and 0.8580
Resistance: 0.8650 / 0.8685 / 0.8700
Support: 0.8633 / 0.8620 / 0.8600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Data-Driven Based Support Level for FuturesDuring the strengthening of the franc, option traders actively gained 'naked puts' levels.
To create a spread strategy, traders can add a long position in the underlying asset, resulting in a breakeven call or a spread when selling an out-of-the-money call in the same series. This allows the trader to enter the market with no risk or even a small profit immediately.
Based on this advantage, we expect a surge in buying activity at the current level or slightly lower.
USDCHF: USD is calm and trading volume is lowThe dollar traded subdued in early European trading on Monday, with the US holiday keeping trading volume down as traders considered the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 102.242, at the start of the holiday. Martin Luther King Jr.
The U.S. producer price index unexpectedly fell in December, according to data released Friday, prompting traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now indicates a 78% chance that the US central bank will begin easing interest rates in March, compared with a 68% chance a week ago.
The US data calendar is quiet this week, with the main focus on retail sales data due out on Wednesday. This will be closely watched for signs that consumer spending - the main driver of economic growth - remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates.
Retail sales are expected to increase 0.4% in December, after rising 0.3% in November.
Investors will also have the opportunity to hear from several Fed officials, including Fed Governor Christoper Waller as well as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed head Mary Daly.
7 Dimension Analysis For USDCHF 😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4, D1
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish on both time frames
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective, indicating a nearly completed sideways move
🟢 Inducement: Liquidity sweep with a long wick candle
🟢 Decisional OB: Mitigated, resistance at CIP with a strong buildup post-breakout, indicating bearish strength in the area
🟢 Traps: Shakeout completed in this area (Arrows)
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily and H4
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: Reversal with a triple top observed during this phase, forming a Consolidation Rectangle
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Notable long wick, Open low/high pattern awaiting confirmation, and an already formed Tower Top
3️⃣ Volume
🟢 Fixed Range: Sell volume predominant in this area
🟢 Low Volume on Breakout: High volume in the purple rectangle area, but without updating Upside move. Expecting a sharp downward move.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Zone: Price in a wide bearish range
🟢 Range Shift: Bearish to sideways shift observed
🟢 Grandfather Father Son: A 6-star selling setup according to this RSI strategy, with an 80% probability
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Middle Band: No confirmation yet
🟢 Contraction: After an expansion move, the market is now in full contraction mode, making outside-of-the-band closing crucial
🟢 Squeeze Breakout: Anticipated
🟢 Walking on the Band: Awaiting
🟢 Headfake: Two observed
🟢 Band Puncher: Three times observed
(For those seeking to learn these concepts in a professional manner, feel free to send me a direct message.)
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: CHF 7.19 vs. USD -3.46
7️⃣ Sentiment
☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Done
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Awaiting
💡 Decision: Sell
🚀 Entry: 0.8474
✋ Stop Loss: 0.8590
🎯 Take Profit: 0.8133
2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 3
🕛 Expected Duration: 15 days
SUMMARY:
The analysis points toward a bearish sentiment, advocating for a sell decision. The entry is set at 0.8474, with a stop loss at 0.8590, take profit at 0.8133, and a risk-to-reward ratio of 3, expecting completion in approximately 15 days.
Will USDCHF breakout Tomorrow? (after US Inflation report)Will USDCHF breakout Tomorrow? (after US Inflation report)
USDCHF recently surpassed both its 50 and 100-hour moving averages, yet it remains confined within its 2024 trading range.
Fluctuations between risk-on and risk-off sentiments keep the pair moving between 0.84635 and 0.85294. Initially, bullish optimism followed comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, suggesting 2 potential interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Additional news this week supporting the Swiss franc was the inflation rate in Switzerland rose to 1.7% in December 2023 from 1.4% in the previous month and above forecasts of 1.5%.
However, a recent shift towards risk aversion has led investors back to the US Dollar, however without creating a distinct market trend.
When will this non-trending market transition into a more trending market? Perhaps at the drop of the US inflation report tomorrow.
In the meantime, maintaining a bullish stance depends on the price staying above its elevated 100-hour moving average at 0.85100 and a break of the recent high at 0.8535 could instigate more buying momentum. A drop below this level could shift the bias towards neutrality.
USD/ CHF !! 1/9/2024 trendline DOWN⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ News
Investors will be looking for guidance from the Swiss Consumer Price Index for December, which is scheduled to be released later today. Analysts expect the annual CPI to indicate a growth of 1.5% compared to the previous reading of 1.4%, while the monthly CPI is predicted to remain unchanged at -0.2%.
The main event to watch out for this week will be the release of US inflation data on Thursday. Market participants anticipate that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while the Core CPI is projected to decrease from 4% to 3.8% year-on-year.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
The price area touching the trendline and touching the EMA is suitable for a SELL signal
⭐️ SET UP USD/CHF PRICE:
🔥SELL zone: 0.84750 - 0.84900 SL 0.85300
TP1: 0.84400
TP2: 0.84100
TP3: 0.83800
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
USDCHF - Look for a short ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H. timeframe perspective, so I am looking for short. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance higher and then to react from institutional big figure 0.85000.
Fundamental news: Next week on Friday will be released NFP and Unemployment Rate in USA. News with a lot of impact.
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USDCHF - Still bearish ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF
Technical analysis: Here we are still in a bearish market structure, so I see price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance higher and then to reject from bearish order block for a short position.
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