USDCNH
USDCNH - which one of ABCDE will we get here?Looking for one of the possible ABCDE moves here.
On larger time frames I marked area where it would reach, if will turn south (see below). So let's go chasing some other pair and come back to this one later and see what will be plotted.
Daily:
4h:
Disclaimer: this idea is solely for my own purposes, to satisfy the ego, if it will work out ;)
USDCNH Bullish Wedge with Long SetupThe Bullish Falling Wedge in the USDCNH pair has broken upwards, but in the overbought Long Signal.
Therefore, in order not to forget, I think the stop level should be kept a little wide.
Coronavirus is among the conditions that adversely affect the currency.
I hope this situation is taken in the name of control without further threatening the health of people.
This analysis may be more risk-free under the following parameters:
Risk/Reward Ratio : 1.32
Position Size < %1
Stop-Loss : 6.93151
Goal : 7.0551
Regards.
USD/CNH will continue to move higher after it broke outThe pair will continue to move higher after it broke out from a downtrend channel resistance line. The US Federal Reserve hold onto its current benchmark interest rate of 1.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said America’s economic outlook had gotten stronger. This was amid the signing of the phase one trade deal between the United States and China. However, the central bank might reassess this claim following the economic threat posed by coronavirus. The COVID-19 began to make headlines in mid-January. The virus originated from Wuhan, China and many analysts warned of its economic implications. The US is a tourist destination for many Chinese nationals. There are 2.84 million Chinese who visited America in 2019 and projection shows it will boom to 3.52 million by 2024. However, the effect on China’s economy will be bigger. The sluggish Chinese economy will further slow with the spread of coronavirus.
The Chinese Yuan Devaluation It appears that the Chinese Yuan is to devalue (much) more.
Fundamentally, the Chinese governement is coming up with countermeasures to offset the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak; which has also disrupted global trade activities.
Technically, the USDCNH chart is on the verge of a break out, with MACD and OBV poised for support.
Target for USDCNH is 7.15 as marked out in the chart.
Watch the daily chart for the soon to happen breakout...
USDCNH - US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan - Trump wins in short term- RSI divergency
- Divergência IFR
- must break support @ 7.10
- precisa romper suporte em 7,10
- another support @ 7.00 (weak)
- outro suporte em 7,00 (fraco)
- major support @ 6.93 + 200 days ema - TARGET
- alvo no suporte em 6,93 junto da mme 200 dias.
USDCNH Reversal Pattern? Coronavirus Good News Upcoming?USDCNH has been in an uptrend with multiple higher lows, however, recently this began to exhaust as new higher lows (confirmed by higher highs) failed to materialize. We also had a big resistance/flip zone hit at 7.00
The swing at 6.9785 was an early entry signal, and also because it broke a smaller flip/support level above.
Looking for a possible head and shoulder pattern here which would show us a transition for an uptrend to a downtrend with a lower high (lower low needed).
We will await the break and close.
Of course, just yesterday China said they would halve tariffs on US goods. This is being seen as progress to a phase 2 deal. Also, you must also entertain the idea that Coronavirus contained and progress headlines may be coming soon. Perhaps some successful vaccine or whatever.
Though I would not trust the Chinese data on this.
USD/CNH will breakout from key resistance linesThe pair will breakout from key resistance lines, sending the pair higher towards its previous high. O January 31, America officially restrict Chinese citizens coming from all parts of mainland China from entering the country. This was amid the continuous spread of the deadly coronavirus abroad. The decision came a month after the US and China signed the phase one trade deal. Analysts estimated that the travel restrictions will cost the US economy of about $10 billion. In line with this, analysts’ projection for the US gross domestic product (GDP) slip to 1.7%, below the 2% target. On the other hand, Chinese Easter Airline has become the first major Chinese carrier to suspend flights to and from the United States. These actions have made the US and Chinese stock market to plummet and their currencies to enter a wild ride. Before these actions, US indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ 100) are hitting their all-time highs.
ridethepig | CNH Spot Commentary 2020.02.03An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%:
In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical looking picture, buyers were tracking the "Cup and Handle" formation earlier last year till we traded the rejection live in the diagram:
Although it takes a brave man to step against the current flows as they have been short-circuited via a temporary demand shock, I continue to look to ride the pig to the downside here and trade the leg towards the lows in the 6 handle via USD devaluation.
Good luck all those navigating around the coronavirus flows, we will keep the charts updated incase of any breakouts to the topside. If this is the case we will need to reassess the view as the 7.27xx technical target which I mentioned earlier would be back in play.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
USD/CNH (A Downtrend Channel is spotted)View On USD/CNH (20 Dec 2019)
Apparently UCNH is starting to show the channel of a steady downtrend and it shall continue that way.
I expect it to go down to 6.88 regions soon. Let's see.
All the best.
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Portier | SSE Comp Macro Outlook, Analysis & Market CommentaryTraders & Investors!
Short, short, short.
Chinese viral outbreak fuels the technical fire Chinese equities sought in relation to it's recent selloff. We see this move as only the beginning of larger selloff toward $2,600. We have positioned ourselves accordingly and see SSE as the best vessel for this view. We have also coupled this view via additional put exposure in USDJPY.
Our view
- Coronavirus to fuel breakdown in Asian Equities as demand retracts and uncertainty remains. A protracted viral outbreak should provide support to the downside bias
- Weak and declining sector strength in China include financials, industrials and consumer discretionary
- Technical test of sellside liquidity and 61.8% retracement level. Impulsive conviction through the 200DMA and break of corrective wedge pattern should see this move extend materially lower.
- Circa +15.00% move on the cards to our sellside liquidity targets ~$2,600
We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios
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USDCNH, US Dollar - China Yuan: Falling WedgeFX:USDCNH
If a bullish breakout should occur on this falling wedge, we will eventually try to get back on this cross.
The first trade closed at a loss at 60% of the initial maximum risk.
In this way we had optimized the realized losses reducing as often happens the % at initial risk.
We do the same thing when trades follow our direction and also optimize profits.
What happens in this way?
We conclude trades in 45% of cases with a profit of 3/4 times the losses. We have even earned 20 times more than the initial risk a few times.
Our first goal is always not to lose money.
Why?
Because we have learned from the best traders in history, and we want to take part in that elite as well.
Happy Trading to All!
USD/CNH 15 Dec 2019. Technical looks pretty bearish with LHLL. 6.95 was well supported with heavy volume, we might see a temporary pull back to 7.05 area. Watch that area closely. Target price 6.9. Trade war update plays a huge part on the movement of this pair, so watch closely.
As long as 7.15 holds, we should see a further downside.