Spike in Yuan Spread: Prelude of what will happen to YuanSpike in Yuan Spread: Prelude of what will happen to Yuan
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Hi Everybody~ This is Wasabi.
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Today, I am going to introduce a new indicator showing the spread of the two Yuan currencies, CNH and CNY, in percent and we can apply to the current market situation.
The first chart is China Shanghai Index (SSE Composite) and the second one is USDCNH (Offshore Yuan).
As you might know, the CNY has a long history of the Chinese Yuan currency, circulated only inside of the mainland China. As compare to this, there's another Yuan currency circulated and traded outside of the mainland China, which is called CNH, also known as the offshore Yuan currency.
This CNH is currently being traded in multiple places such as Hong Kong, Singapore, London and Luxembourg. Due to the limitation of the access to the CNY by the foreign investors, there has been some degree of spreads in between.
With the recent rise in the tension of the US-China trade war, the spread between the two Yuan currencies is heightened remarkably.
The indicator line will be in red when it crosses above +0.25 % in the spread and in blue when under -0.25%.
When he USDCNH and/or USDCNY crosses above 7, we will see them skyrocket to the moon.
I hope you find it useful to assess where the Yuan currency is.
Happy trading!
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USDCNH
MACRO USD/CNH ANALYSISWith the trade war tension building up and de-escalation no where to be seen. China government has started depreciating YUAN to counteract against Donald Trump's Tariff. 7 is a easy target( tariff 25% ). We will see more upside unless a resolution has been made. There is a high probability that we will see record high in usd/cnh.
USDCNH: Weekly downtrend expirations...Weekly T@M signals imply $USDCNH might be basing before rallying from this juncture. Will be interesting to monitor developments in this pair, as fundamentals present complex issues, related to trade talks with the US and the price of commodities as well.
The largest distribution pattern led to a signal that exceeded the target, but ran out of time, followed by a smaller distribution pattern, which is 1 week before its time expiration. IF price doesn't go any lower, odds are this pair bottomed here and will retest recent highs, and possibly trend even higher over time.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USD/CNH DailyI've been saying if usdcnh takes off to the upside it can be a large trade out of an expanded flat. It has double bottomed and bounced off the 800MA on daily twice and turned up. The horizontal green line was marked at the 200MA on the weekly as of right now. So even of it were to correct for one more wave down to that level I would still expect at least a larger 3 wave correction to occur IF it was to continue a downtrend.
Tides May Turn for USDCNHJust minutes ago, Reuters reported that Lightheizer and Mnuchin are going to Bejing for talks. However, trade war detente is now not on the table until June. Trump threatens to keep tariffs on if China won't hold up their end of the deal on intellectual property. Honestly its not looking good. It is difficult to tell if this trend will continue to go negative and if Trump holds an all out assault in the trade war against everyone and anyone he can get his hands on. This may be the world we live in by the end of 2019. Who knows. But clearly, the talks are no longer going as well as we once thought and also let's keep in mind how Trump walked away from Kim Jong Un in Hanoi. This is what we are trending towards now which would be quite detrimental to markets in spite of Trump's desire for a deal which is quite strong and in spite of his sensitivity towards the stock markets which we also know he is quite sensitive to as well. However in the end, in order for these negotiations to go well Trump needs at least the idea that he can create a positive message at the end.
That's the fundie picture. I'll much more briefly talk technicals. Overall, we are trending towards oversold with the USD even though the momentum is still trending in that direction. If you like my analysis, read some more words and check out some more charts here: www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Buying the dip in USDCNHHere we are getting very close to the moves and trading the initial breakup in this final 5th wave on the large timeframes (see attached: "Adding upside exposure on a correction" for more details on this count).
Dollar strength is coming to our screens, time to position.
Best of luck
AUDUSD 0.7300 is the next destination for Aussie bulls ?AUD/USD continues to recover and has made back the losses from the outside day to the downside on Thursday,
Bulls have to break above 0.7180 resistance to travel to 0.7220 and ultimately to 0.7300 to the upside.
Support is at 0.7150, 0.7120 and 0.7100 figure.
Adding upside exposure on a correction=> Here we have a very interesting playing field ... an unsurprising result with the political mess.
=> Today we are continuing to overlook the macro and focus on technicals as we have macro updates and expectations coming in our end of year reports.
=> So lets get started....
=> As with the rest of USD pairs this has been corrective since October and anything towards 6.74 should been seen as an opportunity to re-engage in adding upside exposure.
=> We eventually see potential in this continuing towards 7.00 and a break here will unlock the ladder for 7.10 and give scope up to 7.21.
=> We recommend buying dips as they will be competitive and don't see room for a pullback much lower than 6.78-6.74.
=> Best of luck for those in Yuan pairs and those sidelined looking to add dollar exposure.
USDCNH- Trend Continuation of downward movementIt has been a roller coaster ride from the top , this trade idea is trend continuation trade from the top. Now USDCNH is forming a nice flag and will break down soon . For those who like to take risk , can enter sell with reasonable risk , otherwise wait for it to break the trend line and join the sell. Hope this helps. Don't forget to moon up the likes and your comment will be welcome
USDCNH: buying opportunityOn the hourly chart of USDCNH, the price has finished the 1-5 Elliott structure with strong impulse wave (A), I expect the price to start correcting to local Fibo levels in the nearst future. There we would find an optimal long signal. I will keep you posted! What are your thought on USDCNH?