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USDCNH

USDCNH TRADE Idea SELL (24/07/2023)Another exotic pair, exercise careful actions when trading these pairs. Anyway - Clearly the bias is a sell. The price reacted well off of the POI and is now creating structure, with a liquidity grab having been made to the upside. As evidenced by the 1m chart, the price is looking to break structure so you could get ready to look for the order block. An order block can't be mapped out unfortunately,as the break hasn't officially occured. Please be aware that this sell will only be activated once the break occurs. Also be aware that the overall movement (Weekly) that is being looked for is a buy. RR may be potentially of an 8 or even more. NOTE: This is not financial advice, please do your own research and be aware that any risks are being taken solely by you, the individual.
Short
by saintprincevvs
Copper Conundrum: Diverging Indicators Point to More DownsideThe last time we looked at copper was last October, and the trade played out nicely in our favor. Much has happened since then and we think another opportunity lies on the horizon now. Revisiting the same analysis now we observe the following… China, being the largest copper buyer, its currency pair CNHUSD traditionally shares a high correlation with copper. However, a divergence has emerged since May 2023. Moreover, copper's wide usage in manufacturing - from batteries to appliances and industrial machinery - makes China's import and export figures a good indicator of global economic health. These figures currently paint a gloomy picture, with YOY Exports & Imports pointing lower. Again, we notice a divergence between copper prices and these economic numbers. The Gold/Copper ratio, usually confined within a certain range, has recently tried to break higher. Despite facing resistance, the movement may still have momentum. Previous breaks upward have proven to be quite rapid. One way this could play out is if copper trades lower, the Gold/Copper ratio tends to trend higher. From a price action perspective, copper seems to be breaking out from a seven-month bull flag, inching towards the 4.00 price level. However, the significant resistance at 4.00 casts doubts on the breakout's success. Further fuelling this doubt is the emergence of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) death cross on the daily timeframe. On a shorter timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests slight overselling, while the overall price structure is encapsulated in a symmetrical triangle. Summing up, we foresee short-term downside for copper due to diverging macro factors from copper’s price and a downward trend in the dollar. Moreover, price action suggests overbought levels and looming resistance. CME has the Full-sized Copper Contract or the Micro Copper Futures which we can use to express this view, taking a short position at the current level of 3.904, stop loss at 4.10 and take profit at 3.55 the next level of support and subsequently 3.30 if the symmetrical triangle breakout happens. Each $0.0005 price move in copper per pound is equal to $1.25 for the micro copper futures and $12.50 for the full-sized copper futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:HG1!Short
by inspirante
Bullish Opportunity on USDCNHHello traders! I would like to present an exciting trading opportunity on the USDCNH currency pair, which appears to be trading bullish on the 1-hour chart. After analyzing the price action, I have identified a compelling bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend. Let's dive into the details of this trade plan. Trade Plan: Entry 1 (Market Execution): 7.1800 Entry 2 (Market Execution): 7.1804 Stop Loss (SL): 7.1277 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 7.2131 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 7.2405 Reasoning: Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern: The recent candlestick formation indicates a shift in market sentiment, as the bullish engulfing pattern has formed on the chart. This pattern typically suggests a reversal of the bearish trend and the emergence of bullish momentum. Strong Buying Interest: The presence of a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern signals increased buying pressure, as the buyers have overwhelmed the sellers during the given timeframe. This suggests a potential upward movement in the USDCNH pair. Trade Execution: To take advantage of this bullish opportunity, I have executed a market order with two entry points. The first entry is at 7.1800, while the second entry is at 7.1804. This allows for a staggered entry strategy, potentially capturing a better average price and managing risk. Risk Management: To protect our capital in case the market moves against us, I have set a stop loss (SL) level at 7.1277. This level represents the maximum acceptable loss for this trade setup. It's crucial to adhere to proper risk management principles to safeguard our trading capital. Profit Targets: For potential profit-taking, I have set two take profit levels. The first take profit (TP1) is at 7.2131, representing a moderate level of resistance on the chart. The second take profit (TP2) is set at 7.2405, targeting a stronger resistance level. Traders may consider adjusting their positions or locking in profits at these levels. Please note that trading involves risk, and it is essential to perform your own analysis and risk assessment before making any trading decisions. This post is intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Happy trading and may the markets be in your favor! Disclaimer: The information provided here is based on my analysis as a technical analyst and may not be accurate or suitable for everyone. Trading involves substantial risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Long
by T-Q
4
Any nae sayers??USD/Chinese Yuan has been showing dovish signals during the 3rd qtr and after the news on July 12, 2023 (which can be located on the blue location tab) the economy shows to be slowing down significantly. After news printed on the 12th of July 23, price made a clear decision just 4 hours later we can start to see some clear institutional movement with the dovish engulfing candlestick and a day later structure appears to continue downside pressure especially with the Pin bar holding at a resistance. This could lead to a further drop in price. Even though this pin bar has printed i'm still looking at price for a sell off from the previous news update for a stronger move to the downside. I will be patiently waiting for this move to happen. 38 Pip S/L 558 Pip T/P Let me know what you think?
Short
by Da_KahunaFx
2
Does Fed raise rates to weaken China yuan? USDCNHI wanted to take a moment to share some exciting news with you all about the USDCNH (US dollar and Chinese yuan) currency pair. As many of you may know, the Chinese economy has been showing signs of weakness lately, directly impacting the yuan's value. The Federal Reserve has also raised interest rates, weakening the yuan against the US dollar. But what does this mean for us as forex traders? It means there is an excellent opportunity to long the USDCNH and potentially make some serious profits. So, I encourage you to take advantage of this situation and consider going long on the USDCNH. With the yuan's continued weakness and the Fed's interest rate hikes, there's a good chance this currency pair will continue to rise. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make some serious gains. Start trading the USDCNH today and take advantage of the current market conditions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Debt ceiling aside, watch the dollar and central bank meetings!As the debt ceiling discussions draw to a close, the dollar's rally indicates that markets have largely priced in this event. The focus now returns to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its notably hawkish stance. Fed officials' recent statements and fed fund futures, which are pricing in another rate hike in the upcoming meeting, suggest it might be the right time to reassess the dollar pairs. Two weeks ago, we discussed the USDCNH pair, which made a swift upward move. Interestingly, the correlation between USDCNH and USDAUD has been increasing, and USDCNH has been a leading indicator for the last few moves, with USDAUD following its trend shortly after. To understand why, let's look at the AUDCNH as well as the USD. The moves in these pairs seem to be largely driven by the USD, as the AUDCNH has remained range-bound since 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to meet on June 6th and is expected to maintain its policy, while the Fed will meet on June 13th and is expected to hike rates. This divergence in monetary policies could further strengthen the case for a USDAUD rally. Current yield differentials continue to favour the USD carry trade and this trend appears set to continue as the Fed is expected to raise rates while the RBA remains on hold, widening the yield differentials. With the Fed poised for another rate hike and the RBA expected to maintain its policy stance, along with the dollar's strengthening and the USDCNH leading the AUDUSD pair, we could express our market views via a risk-managed trade long on the USD and short on the AUD. To set up this position, we can take a short position on the Micro AUD/USD futures, with stop-loss orders placed at 0.673 and take-profit orders at 0.627. A Micro AUD/USD futures contract represents 10,000 AUD, with each point move in AUD equalling USD 10,000. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Short
by inspirante
3
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISYen Undervalued, Yuan to Lose Ground Danske Bank continues to expect that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy this year, although the timing remains very uncertain. While a key argument against the Euro is that the currency is overvalued, it considers that the Japanese currency is substantially undervalued. According to Danske; “Overall, USD/JPY seems fundamentally overvalued and combined with potential monetary policy tightening; we expect the cross to drop below 130 on a 6-12M horizon. If inflationary pressures in Japan continue to persist, it will increasingly build pressure on the ultra-dovish stance that the BoJ has. Danske expects the Chinese yuan will lose ground due to broad dollar gains. A weaker Chinese currency would also act as a barrier to Euro gains.
Short
by thunderpips
The case for a Weaker Yuan The most recent Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped below 50, landing back in contraction territory after two prints above the 50-mark. As the world's top exporter, China is acutely sensitive to fluctuations in both exports and manufacturing numbers. Historically, we've seen periods of Yuan devaluation during times of contracting Manufacturing PMI and exports as China works to invigorate export demand. With the latest PMI number trending lower, it's worth pondering whether this signals a movement toward a weaker Yuan. A more detailed examination of Chinese economic data presents some reasons for concern. Chinese export-related economic data has collectively taken a downward turn. This could stimulate further Yuan weakening as the government strives to reinvigorate exports. Moreover, as the world's second-largest oil importer, lower oil prices gives China additional leeway in weakening its currency, as the ripple effects of higher oil prices are tempered. From a technical perspective, the CNH is teetering on the edge of the 200-day moving average, and prices have once more nudged above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, in a shorter timeframe, we notice price action breaking out of the ascending triangle and nearing the top of the wedge pattern. With the USD breaking to the upside coupled with the potential for a weakening Yuan, we think this makes the case for a higher USDCNH. Taking a risk-managed long at the current level of 6.9520, a prudent stop 6.8930 and take profit level at 7.0900. A Standard Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Futures represents 100,000 USD. Prices are quoted in RMB per USD, each 0.0001 per USD increment equal to 10 CNH. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
8
Higher low on USD/CNH hints at countertrend bounceYield differentials between the US and China 2-year treasury note continue to suggest USD/CNH could be oversold, at least over the near-term. The daily close chart (above in black) also better shows the potential for a higher low, as part of a countertrend move. The daily candlestick chart shows a recent pullback has failed to retest the 6.6976 low, and yesterday formed a 2-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). Whilst prices remain within a small retracement channel, we’re now looking for a break higher and minimum move to the highs around 0.6800 (near the monthly pivot point, 100% projection and recent highs). Should it break higher, then the it has the potential to extend to the 138.2% or 161.8% projection levels, the latter of which is by the 200-day EMA. Further out, I doubt Beijing will want their currency to depreciate too much given weak export data, so its possible the anticipated move higher is simply a countertrend move which could later break to new cycle lows.
Short
by CityIndex
1
USDCNH - one of the most important charts in FX markets A key set-up for the radar - we currently see a solid test of the H&S neckline, where a break targets 6.6500 - a move here would be conditional on a moderation in US core CPI (due 13 Dec) and a fed funds terminals rate headed to 4.75% - however, any decline in this cross would lift AUD, NZD and be thematic of outperformance in Chinese equities Price is breaking down and while we typically see less interest in this cross than a G10 FX pair, it's importance in macro markets cant be overstated.
Short
by Pepperstone