USDCNH
Key level to watch on USDCNHUSCNH undergo high volume selling and plunge close to 1%. Now reaching key level of support. Once the support level break expected a lot of space to drop before reaching 200MA area at 6.71 to 6.74 support area.
Key thing to take note if the selling momentum continue for the week might raise bearishness for other USD pairs too and opportunity for short seller to come in
BTCCNY: Long term uptrend en routeThis is what the long term picture looks like for Bitcoin right now. We have now hit the Range Expansion validation target, which confirms that bullish momentum is intact, increasing our confidence in the forecast on chart. There are two targets, one with a high probability of being attained, of more than 60%, and one with lower probability, but still more than 50% chance, and a high probability reversal level on both cases. Once we hit the targets on chart, we could see price stall, or reverse back down to 2955.01 as a worst case scenario. We will be able to determine which will happen, once we reach those levels. If we see price stall, then bullish continuation is more probable, and with detailed multi timeframe analysis, we will be able to add to longs safely on each short term and intermediate term setup that the trend might give us.
Don't pass on these low risk opportunities I present to you.
I have been covering this extensively, so that people can see how well the trading methodology I learned from my mentor, Tim West, works in Bitcoin. I won't necessarily cover it in such detail in the future, this will probably be my last chart for the year. Next year, I might post updates to it, but not post so many trade setups for my followers. If you're interested in receiving all my trade ideas, contact me for access to my trading signals or private tuition course.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
1000 USD per BTC: 7000 cny per coin should hold for a whileAt least until the next PBOC devaluation comes (and it is likely to come, specially after the Chinese New Year), I see 7000 per coin as the price Bitcoin will hover around for a few weeks. This coincides with catching up to USDCNH, if we divide BTC's price by 1000. I reccomend a 15 to 30% long term position in Bitcoin, you can rebalance this periodically, or add funds as your net worth increases each month, with your money destined to savings.
Let's keep an eye on prices and the activity leading to the 28th of January. It is probable to see some kind of sideways action next, so, I'll be looking to profit from short term weakness if it happens. Else, I'll just hold long term longs in place and wait.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USD/CNHChina's economy is now in the same state as the USSR in 80th years.
The Government of China to devalue the yuan
Trend UP
USDCNH PBOC DevaluationThe PBOC’s task becomes increasing difficult with a strong USD since China decided to hitch its star to the USD. China from the 1980’s until now has exported goods and capital to America. The DXY Index (US Dollar Currency Index) weakened to a low of 72.00 in Spring 2008. Since then, it has rallied over 33%. The CNY has strengthened 5% in USD terms and manufacturing wages are up 128% over the same time period. In FX terms, Chinese goods are 38% more expensive, and profit margins of manufacturers are collapsing. Further USD strength will be crippling to the economic base of China. A strong USD also intensifies capital outflows as rich citizens rush to convert their wealth into a strong and rising USD.
Each time the Fed has thought about or actually completed a rate hike, China has responded forcefully by devaluing the Yuan.
We expect PBOC to further devalue their currency in response.
USDCNH:Bearish Butterfly PatternThe bearish Butterfly pattern has completed at 6.967 level and the 1.618EXT of BC is at 6.974 level.
So it is good to sell at 6.970-6.974 levels when price action gives signals at the PRZ.
SL:above 6.98
TP1:6.93
TP2:6.90 and further more
USDCNH: Pullback's done hereUSDCNH appears to have completed a correction and is ready to resume the uptrend here.
This bodes well for Bitcoin longs as well.
If you want to take the trade, risk a drop to 6.8374, or enter gradually over a few days, risking a bigger move down.
The other alternative is to dial down to 1h charts to take the trade, or simply buy a new daily high, with a stop at the recent low. In the current enviroment, I don't favor using stops at all, and start with smaller positions, due to the 'expanding bias' where markets go a bit further than expected, or take a little longer to turn, each time. If you have tight stops, you'll get chopped out multiple times.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Divergence, losing momentum USDCNH H4MACD Divergence has appeared, getting closer to the 20 SMA, RSI looks to be fading... thoughts?
One Big Problem with USDCNH’s UptrendInstead of falling in love with USDCNH’s stellar performance, we should prepare for a major pullback with the potential to erase all of last year’s gains.
AUDUSD: Add to long term longs, nice short term opportunityAUDUSD has a very bullish long term, intermediate term, and short term chart.
We can add to our core positions, if we make a new daily high. We can also take a short term trade once that happens, with a tight stop at the previous daily bar's close. Target is roughly 0.77 for the short term position, and over 0.8350 for the long term entries.
Long term positions were entered earlier, and recently averaged at lower levels, refer to my previous publications.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Is the market complacent, asleep, greedy or wise?Not sure what's going on here but you would think stocks wouldn't be at the level they are now.
AUDUSD: Huge breakout, similar to copper and iron oreWe have a potential breakout of considerable scale in the Aussie dollar chart. I'd highly reccomend entering longs if not in, you can risk either 3 times the daily ATR for the long term, or use Friday's low as your stop, more aggressively.
The target is the 0.8350 handle, to be confirmed after the bi-weekly time at mode signal on chart confirms. For now, it's not yet confirmed, but highly likely, so we can get in early on. I'm adding a shorter term entry here, on a break of Friday's high, with stops under Friday's low, to complement my longer term position in this pair.
Check out my copper forecast in the related ideas, as well as the oil an commodity index charts. We're in the brink of a massive move, that if confirmed, can be ridiculously profitable for all of us if it pans out like I expect it to. This also ties nicely with China's inclusion in the SDR basket today, OPEC's deal, fears of Deutsche Bank's failure dissipated, and Australia's fundamentals overall.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCNH: Potential long term topWith oil rallying, and China soon to be accepted by the IMF, to include the Yuan in the SDR currency basket, the technicals in this chart suddenly look very good to me.
You could go short here, with stops above yesterday's high to begin with. The currencies not affected by today's fear spike due to Deutsche Bank's shock were: the Euro (surprisingly!), XAU, XAG, CHF, CNH, so, we know these are relatively stronger (same as oil and other commodities).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
