Get started

USDCNH

USDCNH, AUDUSD and NZDUSD: Don't fade an uptrendIn this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start. AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it. It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does. NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join. CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side. Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis. I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
USDCNH: RMB has toppedAfter forecasting the path this pair would take with considerable precision, I jumped on the short side. Presently we have short positions running, and we plan to add to them as described on chart. The target is a time at mode 17 bar decline target's, but it could extend further down, maybe even to the mode at 6.21329. This pair has been really volatile, and trending excellently, both up, and down, so it has become one of my personal favorites. It's also useful to analyze it, and other Asian theater currencies, to have a sufficiently precise macro view. Good luck if taking this trade. If interested in my services, contact me privately, see my profile for details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
Sinopec: Bearish signals on chartSinopec, China's leading oil company and publicly traded company appears to be in a 6 week uptrend currently, leading right to a strong low volume resistance level, if the target is hit. Overall, the bias would be to the downside, but there are a few different ways that price can behave. The first would be breaking the blue line and heading straight down, and the others involve rallying an hitting the red resistance level before turning south. Keep close watch of it, might be a good economic indicator. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in. All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
SShort
by IvanLabrie
Multiple Dollar pairs suggest downThis is an interesting portfolio. Will these pairs follow USDCNH's lead? Is this the beginning of a new fundamentally backed intermediate term trend? Or just a very nice short term short? Setups on chart, we will cover these in our skype group's discussions. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in. All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Short
by IvanLabrie
12
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014. In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009. Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan. USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment. The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then. The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83. Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374 Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
USDCNH: Interesting intermediate and long term signalsIn this thread I'll study the relationship between the offshore yuan and other FX pairs. We have two signals here, a monthly one aiming at 6.72254, to be reached before August 2016, and a daily one pointing to a very vicious decline towards 6.23893. What's interesting here is that usdcnh seems to be a good leading indicator to trade the Aussie dollar and other Asian theater currencies, naturally. I choose AUDUSD because it's the highest liquidity one and it's part of my portfolio, but do your due diligence with this phenomenon. As for the Yuan, in the long term, it's probable to see continued devaluation of it, and an uptrend in the USDCNH and USDCNY pairs, for fundamental and technical reasons, unless there is a very significant paradigm shift that changes the macroeconomic dynamics at play. This projected selloff in the USDCNH should serve as both an interesting speculative play, and a good opportunity for individuals seeking to convert their Yuan for Dollars or other currencies as a risk off measure. Good luck sailing this volatile waters, this is a great time to be a trader, so, don't pass on the opportunities that will arise in the coming days. Regards, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8