USDCNH - Dollar is kingFollowing my post on HSI, my focus is also on USDCNH pair. My take is that it is in an upward channel and given the differing monetary policies by the Fed and PBoC, my take is that USD will continue to strengthen. However, we should pay more attention to the Jackson Hole symposium for more insights on the Fed's future rate policies as well as the US labour market which seems to be still red hot.
On the technical front, if the dollar crosses 6.842, there is likely to be greater upside. Else if it closes well below 6.83, then likely to continue the downward trend to the next retracement level. Based on stoch, it appears to be a buying signal but the volume is still weak.
USDCNH
USDCNH VERTICAL LEAPFundamental Insight:
- PBOC Easing Mode
- Zero covid lockdown and Increasing new strain case
- Housing market problems
- Forced regulation on big techs
- King dolla is king
UNPOPULAR OPINION USDCNHThings you should not bet against and one major of them is commodity currencies. I have done research based on sentiments and everyone is looking for a crisis out of china to be break its market, especially in the housing market.
This is my personal view based on a group of commodity currencies a reversal in all of them in almost certain. Will this push for a second wave of inflation "YES" not likely to be felt a few year is monetary policies reverse which I see them doing, but if they become more aggressive then risk of uncertainty is extremely high also Risk of emerging markets could be far worse that we imagine.
Long commodities and commodity currencies.
USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice.
The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%.
This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
#USDC.DOMINANCE PRINTING BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN DAILY CHART !!Hello, community members welcome to another BTC/USDT chart update.
If you find this update helpful, shoot the like button follow and share your views in the comment section.
As we can see from the above-mentioned chart that USDC DOMINANCE is currently printing a bearish divergence and it can move down from here.
The candle close above will be harsh for bull traders in USDT pair coins.
Let’s hope for the best and see how the market performs in the upcoming hours.
NOTE: This is not financial advice. This is for education purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or losses you generate from your investments.
DO YOUR RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES.
Thank you.
USD/CNH Falling Wedge May Hint at Uptrend ResumptionThe US Dollar has been rising against the Chinese Yuan in June so far.
On the 4-hour chart, USD/CNH appears to be carving out a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation. A breakout above, with resistance as the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 6.7304, opens the door to perhaps revisiting the May high at 6.8375.
Otherwise, a turn back lower towards 6.6131 would keep the Yuan on a slow and steady appreciation course against the US Dollar within the boundaries of the Falling Wedge.
FX_IDC:USDCNH
USDCHF,USDZAR and USDCNH top-down analysis Hello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNY 31st MAY 2022Asian shares erased early losses in Tuesday afternoon trade, as signs that China's economic pain may be gradually easing amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions overshadowed broader investor concerns about a global inflation shock. Also lifting sentiment in the Asian region were details of Beijing's new policy support, which includes cash grants to hire fresh graduates and support for internet companies that list overseas.
China's official PMI for May showed factory activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in April.
USDCNH APRIL 2022
USDCNH MARCH 2022
USD/CNH May Resume Broader Uptrend as China Faces Growth WoesThe US Dollar may regain its footing against the Chinese Yuan amid favorable fundamental headwinds.
China's zero-Covid policy has been weighing on local economic output. Meanwhile, rising fears of a recession in the US are slowly weakening global growth expectations. This leaves China in a tricky spot, even if conditions open up locally. A slowing global economy could sap the demand for Chinese goods. Diverging monetary policy is also favoring the US Dollar against the Chinese currency.
On the daily chart, USD/CNH has left behind a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Further upside follow-through could open the door to further gains. That would place the focus on the May high at 6.8376.
Otherwise, clearing immediate support at 6.6480 exposes the Mat low at 6.6119 as the 50-day Simple Moving Average nears.
USDCNH Update - Major Breakout UnderwayIf you bought this pair when I first featured it here, you have made money. If you were leveraged 50:1 - which - often is the case in forex, you have likely returned more (% returned) in this trade than what you can expect in three years of investing in a vanilla benchmark-tracking 401K.
I remain long USDCNH and will continue to cover it for the foreseeable future.
Something to consider: such a rapid deterioration of the Yuan is reason to speculate the Chinese economy is becoming increasingly decoupled from anything that resembles the last 10-12 years of price action. For example, if the Yuan were to surpass $7.20, I would start to suspect two possible (again I can't "predict" anything) situations:
1. The Chinese economy in severe distress (hopefully not).
2. Intentional disregard for participation in the global economy, as it exists currently (hopefully not).
Again, we are not there YET; all we can do is read the chart and analyze information / data as it becomes available.
Pray for peace.
God Bless
USDCNY 25th APRIL 2022USDCNY still under bullish pressure. Currently, China has shown signs of implementing a new normal, but its economic growth is not as aggressive as before the pandemic.
13 Chinese cities have been in total lockdown since March, and several others have been in partial lockdown.
The Chinese government reported that there were around 15,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 nationwide in March.
USDCNH D1 - 17th MARCH 2022
Although the current slowdown in China's economy has not had much impact on Indonesia in the short term,
However, it must be anticipated in the long term. Especially at this time commodity prices are also experiencing an increase.
USDIDR WEEKLY - APRIL
The Beginning of the Golden Dragons Collapse?China is struggling, Covid 3.0 or whatever version we are on now is taking a hold of the Chinese, Shanghai in lockdowns and Shipments struggling to dock. The Chinese Economy is in a very interesting position currently, with Companies like the Chinese Titanic 'Evergrande' defaulting. We are seeing China try to expand its influence in the SCS ( South China Sea). When we take a look at the currency pair USDCNH, we are seeing the USD start to gain some real ground and this weekly charts shows the potential for this rally to continue to the 7 area, we can look for a retest of volume before opening potential long positions.
USDCNH: Yuan, Yuan, YuanAnalysts have been asking if China will allow the Yuan to weaken for ages, and now it's starting, everyone's gone quiet...
Why is China's currency weakening now?
One explanation is yield differentials. Once upon a time, you could invest in Chinese bonds and earn a lovely premium vs US yields for doing so. That isn't the case now 👇
Chinese yields have gradually fallen, while US yields have risen sharply:
Now, this could all wash out. Dollar strength is being driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish tones and high inflation in the US.
Bostic is already worrying about global growth and talking up the need to be "cautious".
If some of the 2022 Fed voters start to talk up those same concerns, maybe the markets begin to scale back those hike expectations, and weaken the dollar.
But that's only one side of the equation...
Back in 2015, the PBoC devalued the Yuan by 3%. Which if you look at it on the chart wasn't that big a deal...
It was a controversial decision however...
The move was unexpected
, and many believed it was a desperate attempt by China to boost exports in support of an economy that was growing at its slowest rate in decades.
However, the PBOC claimed that the devaluation was part of its reforms to move toward a more market-oriented economy.
The sudden shift sent a signal, and the yuan hasn't revisited the 6.20 level since.
And things don't really look too different now. China's economy is slowing, while global growth/demand is slowing too.
And for all the big promises of "common prosperity" or boosting domestic demand, nothing has really changed.
Back in August 2019, growth concerns were front and centre. The yuan was far weaker than it is now, trading above 7 per dollar. A weaker yuan was seen as a positive development for the Chinese economy by making their products cheaper for foreign buyers.
It might not be so abrupt, but there are plenty of reasons for the Chinese authorities not to push back too vigorously against a weaker Yuan.