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Usdcnhsell

USDCNH | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsEven though we held on to a 400pips move in our direction since my last publication on this pair; a sudden breakdown of Channel and Trendline coupled with the appearance of a Head & Shoulder pattern (see previous publication in the link below for reference purposes) insinuates a bearish momentum is imminent. Further consolidation amidst a mixed outlook remains the perspective of the market in the last couple of months and the momentum garnered by the buyers (correction phase) appears to be thinning out as the successful breakdown of Bullish Trendline insinuates a risk of further decline for the Greenback in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Head & Shoulder/61.8% retracement) Observation: i. The Bearish Impulse which started in April 2021 went through a correction phase in the last 3 months to culminate @ CNY6.5300 area - an area that coincides with a 61.8% retracement of AB Leg. ii. The appearance of a baseline with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest reveals a Head & Shoulders pattern describing a formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. iii. During the course of last week trading session, we witnessed a significant rejection of CNY6.51000 level (2nd Head) which led to a confluence characterized by a breakdown of both Trendline and Key level @ CNY6.48500 hereby inciting a Bearish potential for me. iv. In as much as I am comfortable taking a sell position anywhere below my Key level, the degree of accuracy to this bias is expected to be confirmed once the price breaks down the Neckline @ CNY6.45000. v. A further breakdown of the Neckline might transpose into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with extensions of CD leg aiming at CNY6.28000 area (127.2%) and a window to add to our existing position at Breakdown/Retest of CNY6.42000... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 750 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:6 Potential Duration: 7 to 14days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week The price moved against expectation as it continues to find lower lows in the last one month (you might want to see the link below for reference purposes); As part of China’s move to create awareness of its digital Yuan, authorities in Shanghai is planning to distribute $3 million worth of the central bank-issued currency among residents of Shanghai in the form of a lottery. Coupled with the appearance of a Descending Channel, this development appears to give a level of cynosure for investors as I anticipate a risk of further decline for the USDCNH pair in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Breakdown | Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) Observation: i. Since late March 2021, the price has been caught up within a Descending channel as the Greenback experiences risk of further decline in the nearest future. ii. As represented on the chart, connecting the lower highs and lower lows of price action with parallel trendlines reveals a downward trend that appears to hold following the Breakdown and retest of Y6.41000. iii. Below the Key level @ Y6.39600 remains a yardstick for entry opportunity as I look forward to a transition into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below; a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is currently at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (with the possibility of a 78.6%) of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext . of the A-to-B move @ Y6.32000 area. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 550 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 4 to 8 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
USD/CNH Can Plummet FurtherThis has been plummeting for the best part of a year. It recently broke another support and is now retesting it as resistance. If we see MACD turn lower and EMA's do not cross higher then this should continue down to the next supports. Keep in mind this has been oversold on RSI since September so don't be too overconfident as there is always the chance of a correction. I have marked out 3 levels where to expect support so these can be the targets. TP 1 - 6.38367 TP 2 - 6.31515 TP 3 - 6.23602 Once this turns SL can be added just above the resistance.
Short
by olly48