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USDCNY

USDCNY Brace for a cyclical 1-year sell-off.The USDCNY pair is almost on a 3-month decline after a Lower Highs rejection early in July. Having broken below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) the same month, which was the long-term Support, this Lower Highs is a standard cyclical top formation that has shown up both on the May 2020 and 2017 tops. The similarities are more obvious on the 1W RSI, where the pair makes its cyclical bottom after a Higher Lows trend-line is formed on oversold territory and tops on the Lower Highs trend-line shown. Right now it appears that we are just before it breaks downwards aggressively and attack the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The Sine Waves also give a great perspective of the frequency of those Cycle Bottoms. As a result, we expect the pair to have reached by the end of 2025 the 10-year Higher Lows Zone. Our long-term Target is 6.500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Goldman Sachs Predicts China's Central Bank to Cut Reserve RequiGoldman Sachs analyst Hui Shan expects China's central bank to reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in the third and fourth quarters, aiming to manage the decline in long-term yields. This move comes in response to rising bond prices and weak aggregate demand. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is also focused on reducing financing costs for companies and households. Meanwhile, the yuan carry trade is under scrutiny as the Chinese currency strengthens against the dollar. Analysts are monitoring the potential risks and the impact on global markets.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDCNY hit the 1DMA200 and rebounded. Clear bullish confirmationThe USDCNY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 15 2023 market bottom. Yesterday is completed a violent 2-day collapse and hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) right at the bottom of the Channel Up. The price almost immediately rebounded, so that gives the most clear buy confirmation on the short-term. We turn bullish again, targeting a Higher High at 7.3100 (+1.39% rise). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
China's Yuan Depreciation: PBOC Guidance Signals Potential ShiftChina's Yuan Weakens on Strategic Policy Shift by PBOC The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has depreciated to a seven-month low against the US Dollar (USD) in a move attributed to a recent shift in guidance by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This development suggests a potential change in strategy by the central bank, indicating a greater tolerance for a weaker yuan. Weaker Guidance Fuels Depreciation The PBOC's revised daily guidance for the yuan's exchange rate has emerged as a key driver of the currency's depreciation. This guidance, set weaker than market expectations, has signaled to investors a potential shift in the PBOC's stance on currency management. Domestic Pressures and Capital Outflows The yuan's weakness is further amplified by ongoing economic challenges within China. A sluggish domestic economy, coupled with weak consumer spending and declining yields, is prompting capital outflows. This trend is putting downward pressure on the yuan's value. PBOC Takes Action to Stabilize Bond Yields In a separate development, the PBOC is taking steps to address concerns surrounding falling bond yields. The central bank has announced plans to borrow treasury bonds through open market operations. This move aims to stabilize yields and prevent a rapid decline that could trigger financial instability. Navigating Complex Dynamics These recent developments underscore the intricate dynamics currently at play within China's financial markets. The PBOC's actions suggest a strategic response to a confluence of domestic and international economic pressures. The depreciation of the yuan and efforts to stabilize bond yields highlight the ongoing efforts by the central bank to navigate a complex economic landscape.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDCNY Channel Up extending its rise.The USDCNY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 24 Low. Being supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) during the past 3 months (since March 14), the price recently formed a 1D Golden Cross. As a result, we expect a continuation of this textbook uptrend, aiming at a standard +0.70% rise (similar to all previous Bullish Legs of the pattern). Our Target is 7.2875, marginally below Resistance 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Ascending Triangle Points Towards Yuan Devaluation This SummerNote: the technical indicators show a TTM squeeze ready on EVERY TF except Monthly, which is about to happen shortly by this summer - which means a massive move will happen. BOJ will blow up this summer and will devalue against the dollar forcing China to devalue to stay export competitive. I see a 50% devaluation - which will have the opposite effect on everyone else. If China devalues, that means they invite inflation into their economy, which forces deflation throughout the whole world. This will push up the dollar and blow up everyone else's currency. I see the dollar TVC:DXY going to 140-160+ before it too blows up. Of course this implosion will be blamed on some external false flag event - while the FED trots out CBDC's via DigitalID anchored to social credit scores that allows the FED to effectively use negative interest rates via social credit scores and time value of the credits. Gold and silver really won't matter because people will be looking for food.
Long
by EmptyEternity
USDCNY Above the 1D MA200 and looking bullish as ever.The USDCNY pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity on October 02 2023 (see chart below), as it stayed below Resistance 1 and hit our 7.1225 Target: The price has since started to rise after hitting the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Rising Wedge, and now sits above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), past a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. We expect a slow and steady extension of this rise, targeting 7.3500 (Resistance 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDCNY RSI Bullish Divergence calling for a buyThe USDCNY pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity on our last analysis (October 02 2023, see chart below), as it stayed below Resistance 1 and hit our 7.1225 Target At the moment the price is struggling to break above the 1D MA5 (blue trend-line), which it hit yesterday for the first time since November 06 2023. What we are currently more interested at is the Higher Lows trend-line that the 1D RSI has been trading on since November 21. During that time, the price is on Lower Lows, which from an RSI perspective is a Bullish Divergence. At the same time, the pair just formed a 1D Death Cross, the first since February 03 2023, which was on the previous long-term market bottom. What followed after that was a 1D MA100 test (green trend-line). Since we are already on a small rebound, we will buy after a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 and target 7.2200 (projected contact with the 1D MA100). Then if the price pulls back and as long as it is above the 1D MA50, we will buy again and target Resistance 2 at 7.2975. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDCNY Strong Support on the Channel UP and 1D MA50.USDCNY is extending the strong bullish pattern inside the nine month Channel Up. The neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.450, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 34.492) indicates that the current level is a good buy opportunity, especially since the 1D MA50 holds. A crossing under the 1D MA100 however invalidates the bullish trend. Until then, we are long aiming at the 2.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 7.4850). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
2
USDCNY Topped on Head & Shoulders or Channel Up extension?It has been long since we last traded the USDCNY pair (May 2023), that gave a solid short-term buy break-out signal (chart below): The trend has broken aggressively inside a long term Channel Up, which recently broke above the 7.3300 Resistance but only marginally. It stands out that the Resistance breach was made on the Head of a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. If Resistance 1 (7.3300) breaks again, then this pattern gets invalidated and we will expected a test of the dotted line at 7.4000. On the other hand, a break below Support 1 (7.2450) but more importantly the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that has been supporting since April 19 2023, would be a sell signal towards Support 2 (7.1225) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Notice that the 1D RSI has been trading below a Lower Highs trend-line and on the H&S Head made the most recent contact. A similar RSI pattern can be seen in 2022, whose price action also formed a H&S pattern that was eventually a big sell signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
✅ Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 23, 2023Key events: USA - Building Permits USA - S&P Global US Services PMI (Aug) USA - New Home Sales (Jul) USA - Crude Oil Inventories On Tuesday, global stock markets aimed for a rebound, yet this resurgence encountered a setback as benchmark Treasury yields surged to levels not witnessed in almost 16 years. Apprehensions regarding the prolonged existence of elevated interest rates contributed to the robust performance of the safe-haven dollar, which remained in proximity to its highest point in a span of 10 weeks. In the midst of US afternoon trading, the MSCI All Country stock index surrendered its earlier advances and settled without any significant change. This distancing from the 2-1/2 month low it had experienced on the preceding Friday underscored the ongoing market volatility. Among the prominent US indices, the S&P 500 saw a decrease of 0.23%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a decline of 0.46%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite Index managed a modest gain of 0.1%, displaying a degree of resilience amidst the broader market fluctuations. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart With keen anticipation, market participants are awaiting valuable insights into the trajectory of interest rates, which are expected to be shared by prominent central bank officials. Esteemed figures from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all set to convene at the annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, during the upcoming week. Analytical expectations at TD Securities suggest that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to exercise caution in providing explicit signals for September's actions. Instead, he might hint at the potential of sustaining elevated rates for an extended period, aiming to mitigate inflationary pressures effectively. In a welcome development, a surge of 0.7% in technology shares propelled pan-European stocks, thereby contributing to the upbeat performance of the broader European market. Nevertheless, the focus once more shifted to the realm of US Treasuries. The yield on the pivotal 10-year Treasury note made a formidable leap to 4.366%, reaching its highest point since 2007. This escalation translated to an almost 40 basis points increase for the month. Subsequently, the yield retraced slightly, settling at 4.318% after reaching its peak. This dynamic showcases the underlying volatility and heightened significance of bond markets in the current financial landscape. US 10-year Treasury daily chart The surge in yields, which exhibit an inverse relationship with bond prices, has been a consequence of unexpectedly positive economic news in the US. This turn of events prompted investors to recalibrate their expectations for future policy easing by the Federal Reserve over the coming year. These growing concerns, stemming from the potential for sustained elevated interest rates and apprehensions about China's economic deceleration, have recently subdued investor enthusiasm towards the stock market. However, this gloomy sentiment experienced a reversal on Tuesday, initiating a noteworthy rebound across stock markets. The present Treasury futures contracts now suggest a projection of 100 basis points (bps) in rate reductions by the Fed by the conclusion of 2024. This marks a reduction from the earlier projection of 130 bps, which was observed just a matter of weeks ago. Conversely, inflation expectations have displayed limited movement, resulting in a significant upsurge in "real" yields—yield values that incorporate inflation expectations. This development is poised to prompt investors to reconsider their appetite for risk-taking. The noteworthy upswing in European stock performance is primarily attributed to a robust 2% climb within the technology sector. This surge was predominantly propelled by upbeat sentiments surrounding Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the world's most valuable chipmaker. Investor optimism is particularly elevated ahead of Nvidia's impending quarterly earnings report, thereby generating enthusiasm within the technology sector and beyond. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The dollar index, which gauges the strength of the currency in relation to six significant developed-market counterparts, made a marginal advance, reaching 103.61. This level was just slightly below its recent 10-week peak of 103.68, attained on the preceding Friday. In contrast, the euro faced a 0.39% retreat, descending to $1.08535. EUR/USD daily chart China's yuan experienced a marginal retracement, settling at around 7.30 per dollar following indications of stability. Prior to this, state banks had undertaken interventions in the offshore forwards market to provide reinforcement to the yuan's valuation. USD/CNY daily chart
by FOREXN1
7
China Yuan Demise, China Demise, Ray Dalio CNY Reserve Currency? I remember a few months ago there was talk about the Chinese Yuan being the new reserve dollar? Ray Dalio? The China economy looks so far gone its not even a joke anymore Government forcing people to not sell assets including banks / institutions China stimulus debasing the currency parabolically China stock index failing to grow at all China no longer reporting jobless claims / unemployment figures (Source at the bottom) China DEBT to GDP ratio is also going parabolic chances are it will pass even the USA. Conclusion China and the Yuan is on its way out and the China age is looking more over than ever. What's the next reserve currency? Not the Yuan that's for damn sure. What's left? Russia with BRICS & Bitcoin is still there just hanging around. www.reuters.com
SSE:000001
by FederalXBT
Asian Currency Crisis - Part two? Aussie Dollar Collapsing. RU Aussie Dollar looking extremely weak adding it to the list. Japanese Yen extremely weak China Yuan Extremely weak. There's a problem brewing in Asia / Oceania if the FRED does not start lowering rates you're going currencies like the JPY / CNY / AUD potentially lose 30-70% of its value against the United States Dollar. Japan cannot raise rates due to the leverage used by the BOJ to buy US treasuries and Japan Treasuries. China lowering rates will not work as its completely reliant on cheap US Dollars to function. Australia have also pivoted due to them having the highest household debt in the world, Australia relies on China to purchase resources, they cannot raise rates to deal with inflation the system cannot handle it. These could be the first major currencies to enter the point of no return debt to GDP ending up like Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Lebanon Debt To GDP Ratio's JAPAN - 264% "GOV debt to GDP" AUSTRALIA - 113.60% "House hold Debt" CHINA - 80% "GOV debt to GDP" For people who are unaware once you go past 100% in debt regardless if its Government or household, there has never been a currency in history that has survived paying off its debt and retracing. Currencies failing will make debt cheaper to repay? well the second side of that is CPI / Inflation Japan & Australia cannot seem to get out of. Sanctioning Russia & forcing a new BRICS development has really backfired here.
Short
by FederalXBT
USDJPY | FRED RATE CUT / BOJ / QE to Infinity Emergency Is here. Japanese Yen running the risk of entering Hyperinflation like the Argentine Peso thanks to the USA. JPY Used to purchase US Debt while USA has Inflation problem has caused them to purchase more than expected including the FRED running (System Open Market Account (SOMA) (soft YCC) China cannot get growth due to US higher rates slowing business growth meaning > Bank Of China has to start rate cutting and essentially do extreme QE or China will collapse. Japan will be FORCED to not raise interest rates due to them owning the most US Debt (bonds) on low interest rates. Japan is experiencing spike in inflation and currency devaluation as people are figuring this out. China forced to QE to counter deflation Yuan will collapse. Japan forced to QE to counter inflation Yen will collapse. If Japan raises rates the BOJ & institutions have to offload US bonds collapsing the US Bond market as the interest rates will destroy the carry trade. FRED cannot pause they have no choice to start rate cuts within the next months. If the FRED does not do this Japan's demise will send the US bond market under forcing QE / YCC by the FRED sending the FRED balance sheet to all time highs. If the FRED does not do this China could experience a complete society breakdown. There's a log term H&S on the JPY/USD that was going to eventually be tested leading to a -47% of the JPY currency (they will be forced to QE to locals to deal with currency collapse like Argentina leading to even more devaluation. NIKKEI225 Adjusted for Japan M3 supply showing more and more strength since the 1980s alerting local people are starting to lose faith in the Japanese Yen. This is no longer a "get Inflation lower story" it has started a sovereign debt and sovereign currency crisis. If people are unaware how much power and the FRED has in this situation, this could provoke the start of a new Cold War. What happens when the biggest holders of US debt Japan / China implode? the entire US bond system implodes. Suddenly the countries like El Salvador getting their credit upgraded while the US credit gets downgraded are looking very smart right now. End Game.
by FederalXBT
If U.S. Treasuries Default: Market and Bitcoin Implications Authors: SanTi Li, & NaXi Da U.S. Treasury yield, long considered as a risk-free rate (R0) for value computations and future valuations as per materials like the CFA curriculum, bears nearly zero risk in the financial landscape. However, what happens if this supposedly risk-free asset becomes risky? A U.S. Treasury default would have vast ramifications on the global economy and financial markets. Let's analyze the potential impacts on liquidity, the U.S. dollar value, and Bitcoin's value: Liquidity: U.S. Treasuries, globally accepted as secure assets, constitute the cornerstone of the global financial system. A U.S. default could lead to a confidence crisis in U.S. Treasuries, prompting large-scale selling and potentially a liquidity crisis. This crunch could trigger a plunge in asset prices, escalate financial market volatility, and exacerbate the global financial crisis. U.S. Dollar Value: The U.S. dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency. A U.S. Treasury default could erode global confidence in the dollar, depreciating its value. Still, a market panic might trigger asset sell-off, driving the dollar demand up. Simultaneously, investors could seek refuge in other 'safe haven' assets such as gold or other strong currencies, mitigating dollar depreciation to some extent. Bitcoin Value: The secondary market value of Bitcoin is influenced by numerous factors, including market sentiment, consensus, BRC standard popularity, attitudes of governments, regulatory policies, technological developments, and application convenience and degree. If a U.S. default occurs, Bitcoin might respond in two disparate ways: ● Positive Impact: If investors look for non-traditional 'safe haven' assets like gold and silver, and the world requires a new, relaxed reservoir to absorb decompressed funds, Bitcoin's demand and value might increase in the medium to long term. ● Negative Impact: Bitcoin's high volatility and risk could drive investors away during market panic, decreasing its value. Therefore, Bitcoin's reaction would largely depend on market sentiment and investor risk appetite. Implications on the Global Economy and Trade: A U.S. Treasury default could precipitate a global recession, or even a deeper economic crisis. It could also impair the credit of the U.S. dollar, disrupting global trade. Exporters to the U.S. might face diminished orders, while importers of U.S. goods and services might encounter higher prices. Potential Restructuring of the Global Financial System: A U.S. default could lead to a reevaluation of the dollar-based global financial system, potentially allowing other currencies, especially the yuan, to play a more prominent role in the future global financial system. This could also fast-track the global acceptance of digital currencies and blockchain technology. Risk Assets Value Volatility: A U.S. bond default might result in significant volatility in the value of risk assets such as stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging market assets. In theory, three scenarios could lead to a U.S. bond default - debt ceiling issues, government shutdown, and policy errors. However, extreme 'black swan' scenarios such as external shocks and political conflicts could also lead to default. In conclusion, while a U.S. default is highly unlikely, if it occurs, it would have a profound impact on the global financial system. Despite initial potential negativity towards emerging digital industries like blockchain and cryptocurrencies, they may encounter new opportunities in the long run. This would especially be the case if the U.S. dollar's status as a settlement currency is challenged. This could increase demand for Bitcoin and accelerate the transformation of global trade methods. However, it is critical to note that the thoughts expressed above are intended for long-term thinking, discussion, and learning, and should not be construed as investment advice. However, the probability of an event with a similar magnitude happening is not necessarily low. The exact timing and suddenness of such events are difficult to predict, hence the importance of having risk control and defensive mechanisms in place to be prepared for any situation. Twitter: @santili1021
by OuChiBoy
USDCNY Approaching a 2 month Resistance on overbought RSI.It's been a long time see we last traded the USDCNY pair (see chart below) but it was a long-term trade that very precisely hit the both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA100 (red trend-line) targets: After the January 16 rebound, the pair former a Channel Up and currently the price is approaching the 6.9785 Resistance. The 1D RSI got overbought on Friday for the first time since February 24. If it closes a 1D candle above Resistance 1, we will buy and target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up at 7.0500. Until then we will sell those overbought indicators and target the 1D MA50 on the short-term and if it closes below the Inner Higher Lows, then sell more towards the bottom of the Channel Up. If the price closes below Support 1, then long-term sell targeting Support 2 at 6.7000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
6
USDJPY Headed lower? The case for Japan to thriveFirst off, I am NOT a Forex trader or highly in tune with the intricacies of the forex market. However, I am a Chartist and I see what I see. The USDJPY is in a current short term down trend, posting Lower lows and lower highs. With the CPI data coming tomorrow for the US Economy I would suspect some significant movement to start tomorrow and not end for a few weeks at least. The China Yuan trading BLOC is becoming a larger problem for the USD every day. At some point Japan has to survive and we might see their choice to adapt to the current climate of world finance begin to help their currency decouple from its standard trading range channel that its been comfortable in for decades. Japan is positioned well in all things except agriculture and typically that would be where the USA would come to the table for trade talks. Unfortunately the USA market for foreign automobiles is not what it used to be and China is looking anywhere it can to establish new trading deals. China could easily steal a good market share of our Japan agriculture trade without Japan fearing much retaliation from the USA in doing so. Japan has already signaled to the world that they will be comfortable pivoting a portion of their trade deals and currency settlements if need be. That is the basis of my idea that the USDJPY is headed lower and towards a stronger JPY. I look for 131 in the immediate short term and 126 before we try any significant reversal if any at all. This is just what i see and I am just documenting my own ideas for myself. DYOR.
Short
by TheStockMarketSniper