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USDCNY

Global Selloff: Keep your eye on USD/CNY If this game was baseball, three strikes would mean you're out. Could this be the start of a third wave of devaluation in the Chinese Yuan? Each time the Chinese Yuan devalues it just happens to coincide with a massive selloff in the SPX. 2015 was the first time that China reduced its stake in Treasuries on an annual basis in an attempt to support the yuan and stem capital outflows. Last year $225 billion in U.S. Treasury debt was sold, the most on record since 1978. The largest owner of U.S. debt, China dumped hundreds of billions in U.S. Treasuries in August and December. Large devaluations of the Yuan occurred in August and Dec 2015. The PBOC shocked world markets last August with a surprise devaluation of the Yuan knocking over 3% off its value - the largest single drop in 20 years. China sold more than $100 billion of foreign-exchange reserves in August and again by January. Beijing announced in February the country’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in more than three years. The Chinese government continues to attempt try and stop the flow of money leaving the country for overseas investment.
Short
by dime
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014. In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009. Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan. USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment. The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then. The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83. Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374 Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
USDCNH: Interesting intermediate and long term signalsIn this thread I'll study the relationship between the offshore yuan and other FX pairs. We have two signals here, a monthly one aiming at 6.72254, to be reached before August 2016, and a daily one pointing to a very vicious decline towards 6.23893. What's interesting here is that usdcnh seems to be a good leading indicator to trade the Aussie dollar and other Asian theater currencies, naturally. I choose AUDUSD because it's the highest liquidity one and it's part of my portfolio, but do your due diligence with this phenomenon. As for the Yuan, in the long term, it's probable to see continued devaluation of it, and an uptrend in the USDCNH and USDCNY pairs, for fundamental and technical reasons, unless there is a very significant paradigm shift that changes the macroeconomic dynamics at play. This projected selloff in the USDCNH should serve as both an interesting speculative play, and a good opportunity for individuals seeking to convert their Yuan for Dollars or other currencies as a risk off measure. Good luck sailing this volatile waters, this is a great time to be a trader, so, don't pass on the opportunities that will arise in the coming days. Regards, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
if Fed to increase interest and then what happens ? Is deflation in the world? Going ... China's currency could be devalued and said that it was inevitable months began to be discussed in advance. It must be prepared to let the country's economy. As is known, reduction of price deflation is falling. Although this might sound pleasant to the ear is a great example of the historical experiences of hazard events it could be shown to halt production of the 1929 Great Depression era. The risk of deflation in the national economy, production is affected as follows: Price decreases, increases the value of money but in the psychology of deflation environment is as follows: the consumer does not purchase prices reduce Seeing consumption is sustained fall since prices thinkers will fall further and the economy begins to slow trading scarcity due to the production decrease, employment decrease, national income falls begin to investors, traders, companies are worrying too could fall in price by acting with the same thoughts and they are not included in investment or take any action. Chinese Economy and Fed Interest Rate Increase Fibonacci %236 Level Now : 6.15 Now : FX_IDC:USDCNY Fibonacci % 382 Level Now : 8.32 Now : FX_IDC:EURUSD Fibonacci %021 Level Now : 6.30 Now : INDEX:DXY Best Regards
by Lemnos