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USDCNY

USD vs CNY US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan Q1 Currency War Thoughts!The Background & Info: At the end of Q1 we have seen the usual crazy headline packed news cycle that we all have become accustomed to since 2020. Strange news, wars, meme realities and conspiracy vindication are now the new normal. You might have missed it in the news cycle, due to all the chaos, but the Chinese Yuan ( CNY ) has made some HUGE waves throughout the world by announcing the settlement of Saudi Arabia's purchase of gas from Russia. It appears that China is taking a page out of the USA playbook by being seen on the international stage trying to broker peace in a proxy war it appears to be funding in a foreign land, aggressively disrespecting nations borders with its airspace violations and spy equipment and, if all that was not enough of a copy cat move, they now have moved forward with courting Saudi Arabi into its BLOC countries that have agreed to swap their trade settlements from the USD to the CNY . It appears Long gone are the days of China shouting threats from the confines of the Forbidden City ( not Forbidden Garden ) walls. They now seem to be taking center world stage and with the Ukraine war and the Saudi Arabia agreement. This will allow them to continue their campaign of world influence peddling and open the doors of Europe to them as a proxy negotiator for Russian Oil & Gas as well as alternative trade settlement base, military assistance, and other one off trade alliances. Truly a wolf in sheep's clothing is now knocking on the doors of Eastern Europe. Europe is one of the few areas of the globe that China currently does not have a good foot in the door. In Africa and the Middle East they own the majority of rare earth mineral rights & mines, In Asia and America they control the tech and manufacturing sectors. Now they are taking on Global Policing and Influence that will lead them into Europe in 2024. Is this the END of the US Dollar being the currency of the world's economy? How is the Chinese Yuan stacking up against the US Dollar today? Well.... What does the Chart Say: My charts are telling me that historically the USD is a powerhouse and has had MANY moments of retracement while maintaining a VERY bullish uptrend. Support is EVERYWHERE for the USD and the world economy understands better than we the citizens do, that USA policy and leadership change every 4-8 years. The recent gains of the Chinese CNY BLOC should have crippled the USD but instead it merely dipped it back to the mid range of its upward bullish trading channel. SUMMARY: I would refuse to bet against the USD and I don't see any significant trading opportunities arising from this over the short term. However, if the Chinese continue to play the world police and peace broker on the world stage then other countries and other settlements will strengthen the BLOC alliance and that WILL have a noticeable effect on how the USDCNY trades. I would suspect that IF more significant trade partners join the BLOC and China continues its mature world stage presence, that the USDCNY would end up looking to trade between 5.5-6.25 this time in 2024. But if the USA gets back to world leadership, makes a strong presence felt on the world stage, then I would look for USDCNY to continue is current trading channel and its bullish uptrend. THIS is just me documenting my own thoughts on the matters at hand. Do your own Research.
Long
by TheStockMarketSniper
230228 - USD/CNY as leading indicator - or not?I am investigating the extent to which USD/CNY is an indicator of future USD moves across the Majors. First, notice on the chart how well Price-Action and Elliot Wave concepts apply to USD/CNY. The levels of polarity chance sit right on the Fionacci retracements. The Breakout Aug 2022, in (A), follows the description of a breakout (Pre-Breakout PA) to perfection. The Breakdown Dec 2022 / resumption of trend, in (D) is beautiful in its simplicity. The top reversal from Oct/Dec last year in (B) is a textbook example of a Head & Shoulders pattern. The top itself (C) does also read as THE top: Long Candle up, Dark cloud Cover, Inside bar, Pin bar and a counter strike bar. Text book Dark Cloud Cover Reversal, in fact you’ll find a chart example in Steve Nison, 'Beyond Candlesticks’, p.80, that looks very similar to this one. (I checked, I did look familiar when I saw it) Double bounce Jan 2023, in (D) respecting S/R levels from 6 months earlier. LAST FRIDAY You remember USD gained across all pairs. Bullish USD means Bearish Stocks. Friday should have been a good day for you guys. It was easy, no? All I needed for Friday was USD/CNY, it’s what I based my decisions on. THE BREAKOUT LAST FRIDAY WAS PRECEDED BY A BRKEAK OUT ON USD/CNY. MEANING THAT (AT LEAST ON THAT OCCASSION) USD/CNY IS A LEADING INDICATOR, maybe just because it's the earliest market to trade on any given day. DOLLAR INDEX (#DXY) vs USD/CNY AS INDICATOR. I have added DXY (in orange) as an overlay. I few things I notice: Most important takeaway; USD/CNY tells you the start of the big move up or down within a day or 2max. USD/CNY is not useful in providing info in ranging DXY markets. May-Aug 2022. DXY is frisky. Jumps down, up, up and down, arriving where it started, 3 months earlier. During this time USD/CNY remains stable. But the breakout is dead-easy to read from the USD/CNY, while DXY at that time was confusing and useless as indicator. I have already explained the top-reversal on USD/CNY above. That is clear. On DXY however, the top is very frisky again, wild swings with a range, half the range of the entire wave down. 1 Feb 2023. Is the bottom of the down-move on DXY. 2 Feb 2023 on USD/CNY. But USD/CNY gives you confirmation with a double bottom, which can be read as being the bottom. Conclusion For now, I suggest you add USD/CNY to your watchlists, and look for USD-pairs that respond well. (JPY and CHF are two) For those USD/CNY will be a useful indicator for timing your USD-trades. One last thing - the spread between the USD/CNY and DXY When the spread becomes too large, USD drops, but DXY drops more. We know CNY is overvalued. Chinese Central Bank manipulates it, since 2015, when USD and CNY de-pegged. But I need to investigate the spreads further.
by UnknownUnicorn39208297
Higher low on USD/CNH hints at countertrend bounceYield differentials between the US and China 2-year treasury note continue to suggest USD/CNH could be oversold, at least over the near-term. The daily close chart (above in black) also better shows the potential for a higher low, as part of a countertrend move. The daily candlestick chart shows a recent pullback has failed to retest the 6.6976 low, and yesterday formed a 2-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). Whilst prices remain within a small retracement channel, we’re now looking for a break higher and minimum move to the highs around 0.6800 (near the monthly pivot point, 100% projection and recent highs). Should it break higher, then the it has the potential to extend to the 138.2% or 161.8% projection levels, the latter of which is by the 200-day EMA. Further out, I doubt Beijing will want their currency to depreciate too much given weak export data, so its possible the anticipated move higher is simply a countertrend move which could later break to new cycle lows.
Short
by CityIndex
1
The Chinese yuan is the new world currency.The forecast that will probably come true not in 10 years, but this year, the yuan will begin to become the world's currency. Currently it only accounts for a few percent of world trade, but it will account for tens of percent. In this scenario China must stop devaluing the currency to please its exporters and overseas partners. Create an infrastructure parallel to the SWIFT system. I assume that this will be a digital yuan for international transactions. Whether there will be a correlation with the current fully fiat yuan - I can't say yet.
Short
by IgorFlow
3
Update on the Chinese YuanA few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi is visiting Taiwan could be the catalyst for a breakout. Of course, I could be wrong, and the market has a pullback first. However, I think that would be a buy-the-dip opportunity. Going down to 6.6 would be a gift, and that's where I'd want to add to my long positions (short CNY). In my opinion, the market will take out the double top at 7.2$ first, maybe pull back, and then move significantly higher. However, my first target is a bit lower because I do some resistance there, as there was a breakdown that was never retested. Regardless of what your target is, the R/R here is tremendous.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
1
The USDCNH/USDCNY move was extraordinaryAs the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and rallied much higher. By looking back to the USDCNH price action over the last decade, we can see that the two times we got such huge rallies, the market initially pulled back, and then went higher. Now when we compare the duration of those rallies, their magnitude and how overbought the market got by using different metrics, they all look fairly similar as a whole. For example the first one from 2015 was longer and slightly larger than the current one, but the initial leg was brutal. The second one from 2018 was the largest and quickest, however the market wasn't that overbought and the move made more 'sense'. Therefore this move has the potential to be just like the previous two. In the short term I could easily see USDCNH trade back to 6.53-6.58, but my long term target is above the 7.2 double top. The same way the double top around 7 broke and the market went to 7.2, I expect the market to go above the 7.2 double top. No idea where could it top, but it is possible that we get a prolonged bull for USDCNH.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
USDCNY Bearish below the 1D MA50A month ago we called the top on the USDCNY: With the price breaking below Fibonacci 4.0, the pair has basically called for an extension of November's downtrend. This will be confirmed if the price fails to close the week above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see, on a sample dating back to January 2017, every time the price failed to close above the 1D MA50 (four events), it extended its losses and broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), approaching the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and on two occasions breaking (much) lower. A slightly different case is March 2017, when the price did break above the 1D MA50, but eventually collapsed below it a few weeks later. Perhaps the best confirmation for a long-term sell would be when the RSI on the 1W time-frame breaks below its Support level. This happened on all of those cases since 2017. As a result, we have a medium-term target for USDCNY on the 1D MA200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
5
USDCNH probably going a lot higherA little while ago the PBOC lost control of their currency and we saw the US dollar rising exponentially. In the latest trade report from China Exports from China edged 0.3% lower yoy to USD 298.37 billion in October 2022, missing the market consensus of a 4.3% growth. This was the first decline in shipments since May 2020, amid poor overseas demand as cost pressures grew globally and supply disruptions lingered. There is a real chance that the US dollar could keep rising as the offshore renminbi CNH collapses further. China needs to export to the US to receive the US dollars, to then go out and buy stuff like Oil. This is why the Chinese and the Saudis earlier this year start to formulate a plan for China to buy direct with their own currency.
by Macrobriefing
DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash. * The US October Employment Situation today reported 261k nonfarm payroll jobs added (vs 250k expected), a 0.2% increase in unemployment and a 62.2% labor force participation rate. These numbers hardly reflect monetary tightening (labor force participation rate has remained largely unchanged since Covid-19 lockdowns) nor a recessionary environment. If CPI comes in lower on the 10th it will likely help soften the Fed's stance on inflation but as it stands now, the Federal Reserve is likely to increase the funds rate by another 75bps in December. If CPI comes in higher on the 10th, 100bps would likely be on the table come December 14th. The Russia/Ukraine grain deal that Putin resumed this past Wednesday will expire on 11/19/22 and there have been no commitments to extension thus far. Chinese stocks are in rally mode as rumors regarding a reopening from Covid restrictions are beginning to circulate. Key Upcoming Dates: Third GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 11/09; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .* Price is currently trending down at $110.78 and is still technically testing the 50MA at $111.15 as support. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$109.61, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 45.84 with no signs of trough formation and is on the brink of losing both 49.10 support and the uptrend line from July 2020 as support; the next support is at 39.43. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish as it tests 68.24 resistance. MACD remains bearish after a failed bullish crossover and is currently trending down at 0.035 as it approaches a potential retest of -0.065 support. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 13.70 as Price continues to try to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce off of the 50MA as support then it will likely retest the local-high of ~114 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $111.20.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
USDCNY Next week will probably top and turn sidewaysThe USDCNY pair has been on a very strong rise since it got detached from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on August 11. The bullish channel resembles that of mid April - mid May, which topped on its 6.0 Fibonacci extension from its previous Support. The RSI is printing a similar sequence that was just before that top. As a result it is a possibility that the pair tops next week around 7.300 and then pulls back to the 4.0 Fib, turning sideways until it tests the 1D MA50 again, where the next long-term trend will be revealed: either a bullish continuation or a closing below it and a new bearish pattern will be introduced. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
So, I looked at the CNY (Chinese Yuan or Juan) more, and..Check out my most recent publishing(s) referring to this particular exchange rate in the "Related Ideas" section below if your interested in the USDCNY. I took a closer look at my in-depth analysis over the weekend and felt as though it needed some adjustments (additions*) + further complication.. but its for the better.. hear me out. Ive been spending the last month or so, and will be spending as much time as necessary to catch up and become more and more familiar with what's appearing to become an even more disastrous real estate market than what we know to be the worst recorded event (in relativity) in capitalism history. ("the 2008 financial crisis") This event could be worse, simply due to the fact that China is so powerful.. (which is good for us; the money managers!) As a trader, its important to consider the recent upturn regarding political and socioeconomic gossip. IYKYK There is plenty of public and freely available information on how to approach any market using fundamental risk management. Save this, be patient, and ask questions. Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice. The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%. This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
Long
by DNP-FX
2
USDCNY 31st MAY 2022Asian shares erased early losses in Tuesday afternoon trade, as signs that China's economic pain may be gradually easing amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions overshadowed broader investor concerns about a global inflation shock. Also lifting sentiment in the Asian region were details of Beijing's new policy support, which includes cash grants to hire fresh graduates and support for internet companies that list overseas. China's official PMI for May showed factory activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in April. USDCNH APRIL 2022 USDCNH MARCH 2022
Long
by DNP-FX
Chinese yuan rebounds on Shanghai reopening hopesThe Chinese yuan rose to one-week highs on Monday, fueled by expectations that Shanghai, the country’s financial hub, will soon emerge from a two-month lockdown that has crippled economic activities in the city and weighed on the country’s overall economic recovery. The CNY traded at 0.1504 against the greenback on Monday, recovering further from an over one-week low of 0.1481 on Wednesday when the yuan weakened against a basket of 24 currencies tracked by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS). Still, the yuan has fallen below the 0.1570-mark against the USD since April as concerns over China’s economic recovery grew following Shanghai’s prolonged lockdown that has affected consumption, industrial production, lending, foreign trade, and other aspects of the economy. The RSI indicator is at least suggesting that this recovery in the yuan may not last. Slowing economy China’s zero COVID-19 policy has definitely taken a toll on the domestic economy. In April, China’s retail sales fell at the sharpest pace in over two years as the lockdowns in Shanghai hammered consumption and the supply of retail goods. There have been reports of food shortage in Shanghai, with state-run Xinhua News reporting that multiple botanists called on residents to stop digging and consuming wild vegetables. Industrial output, meanwhile, unexpectedly fell in April versus a year earlier, reversing the modest gain in March. The drop in China’s factory output last month was the steepest since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. It came as lockdowns forced the closure of vital factories including those operated by local and domestic carmakers. Shanghai is one of China’s major auto production hubs and the lockdowns weighed on carmakers’ revenues in April. All-out effort to stimulate economy As investment banks and economists downgraded their outlook on the Chinese economy this year due to the lockdown’s impact, Beijing has vowed to all-out efforts to stabilize industrial and supply chains and boost infrastructure construction. On Friday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang acknowledged that the country’s latest economic challenges are worse than those seen in 2020. Li said the government is "at a critical juncture in determining the economic trend of the whole year.” He urged local governments to make every effort in bringing the economy back to its normal track. Shanghai reopening The Shanghai government is working to ease the city’s lockdown, issuing on Sunday an action plan that consists of 50 policies and measures to help stimulate the economy. The measures include relaxing the rules on resuming production starting June 1 and expanding the scope of subsidies for companies’ pandemic prevention and disinfection, state-run Xinhua News reported Sunday.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCNY 25th APRIL 2022USDCNY still under bullish pressure. Currently, China has shown signs of implementing a new normal, but its economic growth is not as aggressive as before the pandemic. 13 Chinese cities have been in total lockdown since March, and several others have been in partial lockdown. The Chinese government reported that there were around 15,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 nationwide in March. USDCNH D1 - 17th MARCH 2022 Although the current slowdown in China's economy has not had much impact on Indonesia in the short term, However, it must be anticipated in the long term. Especially at this time commodity prices are also experiencing an increase. USDIDR WEEKLY - APRIL
Long
by DNP-FX