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USDCNY
USDCNY short. w46 2020Monthly
Downtrend Overall
Bearish market = only sell positions
Looks like pullback in downtrned
Weekly
Downtrend strong. No much support of buyers - quick
Daily
Downtrend - enters on pullback.
Good time to short due to
1. Asia created block against USA. Strenght CNY.
2. DXY rather will be weak due to quantative easing policy. Weak USD.
RSI no so oversold
Open
On pullback 6.5750
TP 6.4850
SL 6.6000
RR 3.3
Dollar will keep fallingChina is US' 2nd biggest trading partner after EU and watch what is happening with Dollar vs Yuan...dollar running through no volume zone, no liquidity to stop the fall. I marked where is next major support.
Turnover between US and EU is not so different as that is with China.
List of the largest trading partners of the United States
1 European Union 717,902
2 China 635,364
Sell dollar rallies on USDXXX pairs...
Buy XXXUSD rallies...Eurusd is likely to hit 1.22.
Expecting a downturn on the USDCNY.Yes, about to enter Subwave 4, retrace to some estimates I indicated. Then finish off the main Wave 5 of impulse. Then she'll retrace again, most likely to .618 or even lower. No guarantees folks, even with Elliott, which the closest thing to a guarantee in market forecasts. NFA
ridethepig | USDCNH into the elections📍 USDCNH into the elections
Oct 2020
Markets are moving quickly.
Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down.
In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange lower seems like the pragmatic play.
Of course if you are short from above you have nothing to do but continue to add on pullbacks, but for those wanting to get closer to the flows, a leg back towards 6.85x seems highly likely.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
USA stocks Vs China stocks. Charting the next leg up.Like for like. Battle between spx & shcomp (USA stocks Vs China stocks). Charting the next leg up. See the GAP. Start of presidential term this time around could give spx (USA) a bigger boost than last time NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
ridethepig | Gold in CNY📌 The struggle to claim 14,631 is notable. When studying the waves I came across similar a similar state of affairs in the earlier flows. The impulsive rally derives from its strong nature, not from itself but from much more the strategic concept of portfolio defence. A defensive move which is clearly crowded and starting to become a deer in the headlights could do with a push down to sharply shake out the late retailers who are attempting to eat off the march forward.
Here we started to load longs on the breakup of the 3rd wave, a momentum gambit which we will discuss further in detail over the coming weeks, sellers outpost was taken exposing the highs. The long-term flows into gold are made from sound fundamentals and common sense ideas, however, it does not mean we cannot attempt to outplay our opponents in the interim... before they get comfy for a good night's rest!
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Chinese Yuan-- From 2008 to nowMeasured move shows the previous wave cycle was corrective, making the next cycle the impulsive wave.
*Since Yuan was introduced since 1955, there no use for making upward measured move target with incomplete data.
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Fundamentals// that China is not willing to keep print money like before+ US printing $$$
REMX Vaneck ETF - Trade WarsGuess who produces most of the world rare earth magnets which we need for electronics like phones, computers and many other things. China China China.
Guess which ETF saw all time high spike in volume yesterday. Not advice. DYOR. #tradewar
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Trade idea USDCNH longUSDCNH follows a medium-term uptrend. On 27/05/2020 the pair reached its previous high at 7.20 and got rejected. In the last two weeks we saw a decline back to the SMA200 at 7.0450 where we today saw a rebound in an environment of risk aversion and dollar strength. This situation gives a long engagements a very good return/risk ratio. Trade parameters are as follows:
- entry at current level of 7.08
- stop loss at 7.01 (conservative approach) or below 7.04 (aggressive approach)
- take profit at 7.195 for 67% of the position
Multi-decade DXYDXY broke through multi-decade wedge pattern briefly in March 2020 ($103), before taping down artificially due to Fed Reserve's strong monetary actions (Repo + Dollar Swap + Unlimited QE).
It would be interesting to see if Fed Reserve can counter the global market forces single handedly. Assuming dollars flow to US companies, it would be hard for it to flow to overseas companies which has >10 Trillion USD denominated debts.
Prediction: 12 Months USD strength
USDCNY - Technical Analysis UpdateBoth Option can be possible - so, for now just stand aside and check how the price will move before going for one of the below options
Option A: Bullish Market before the current sideways trend that could be interpreted as a paused to the bullish market before resuming it again
Option B: Descending Triangle - Bearish Market
Chinese yuan starting to fade.Dragon of the east as they say sparked the eye but fare tale can never be real.
Under the threat of global recession, US-China trade war, awakening young that don't believe in the gov's propaganda anymore, the yuan will eventually evaporate just like the collapse of the soviet union.
This is a short term trade but with very high risk reward & probability, will turn out to be a hell of a trade in a few months time.