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ridethepig | CNH Spot Commentary 2020.02.03An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%: In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical looking picture, buyers were tracking the "Cup and Handle" formation earlier last year till we traded the rejection live in the diagram: Although it takes a brave man to step against the current flows as they have been short-circuited via a temporary demand shock, I continue to look to ride the pig to the downside here and trade the leg towards the lows in the 6 handle via USD devaluation. Good luck all those navigating around the coronavirus flows, we will keep the charts updated incase of any breakouts to the topside. If this is the case we will need to reassess the view as the 7.27xx technical target which I mentioned earlier would be back in play. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
Portier | SSE Comp Macro Outlook, Analysis & Market CommentaryTraders & Investors! Short, short, short. Chinese viral outbreak fuels the technical fire Chinese equities sought in relation to it's recent selloff. We see this move as only the beginning of larger selloff toward $2,600. We have positioned ourselves accordingly and see SSE as the best vessel for this view. We have also coupled this view via additional put exposure in USDJPY. Our view - Coronavirus to fuel breakdown in Asian Equities as demand retracts and uncertainty remains. A protracted viral outbreak should provide support to the downside bias - Weak and declining sector strength in China include financials, industrials and consumer discretionary - Technical test of sellside liquidity and 61.8% retracement level. Impulsive conviction through the 200DMA and break of corrective wedge pattern should see this move extend materially lower. - Circa +15.00% move on the cards to our sellside liquidity targets ~$2,600 We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios ------------------------- We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform. Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! Until next time, Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
SShort
by Portier
US dollar falling against Chinese YuanThe US dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but then turned around to form a bit of a shooting star and the psychologically and structurally important 7.00 CNY level. Ultimately, this is a market that measures risk appetite more than anything else and if we do pull back from the 7.00 level, the US dollar will probably drop down to the 6.95 handle, and then perhaps even the 6.90 level. Ultimately though, this is a market that measures massive amounts of risk, and if the US dollar falls it shows that we get a big “risk on” move around the world, not just in this pair. A lot of this will come down to the US/China trade situation and whether or not we are moving forward. You can see that we have been grinding lower and significantly forming a bit of a down trending channel. We have recently bounce from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and now sits just above the 200 day EMA. That being said we are making a series a “lower highs”, and of course “lower lows.” The last vestige of support could be the 200 day EMA or the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Pay attention to the headlines because of things get good for risk appetite, this pair should continue to drop from here. Beyond that, it’s very likely that we will continue to see more of a grind lower as long as nothing too drastic happens. Unfortunately, it will only take one headline out there to turn things around. If the market were to break above the 50 day EMA then things stood start to shoot straight back up in the air in a bit of panic. Things have cooled down over the last several weeks though, so it’s very likely that we continue to drop.
by Forex4you
15 December, the US will implement tariffs on $156B on ChinaTo offset the additional tariffs the CNY would have to depreciate - although the Chinese authorities have said that they won't pursue quantitative easing. If there is a formal announcement to suspend or delay the tariffs, the market would expect a more positive risk reaction and that is currently being priced in. WIth the USDCNY trading around the 6.90 and below the 7.00 psychological level that was key back in the summer. If Phase one of the deal does not pass and the tariffs go-ahead, we would expect the USDCNY to trade above the 7.100
by ForexVox
ridethepig | CNY 2020 Macro MapIn a nutshell, I am expecting Copper to keep Chinese Equities afloat and recover Q120 with less uncertainty via fiscal policy and a rebound in exports. For those following the latest Hang Seng / Copper chart: For the macro side, CNY will find a strong bid via trade tensions easing as we move into 2020 US elections. China's outlook for future generations is changing and while Trump protectionism causes USD devaluation via FED permanent operations. Flow wise I am expecting a lot of business to be done within 1H20 in FX markets, my main targets for 2020 remain at 6.85xx with momentum picking up in the decline through 2021. The reflationary theme is picking up traction and if we see the Dollar materially decline it will be enough to provide some further growth to Chinese exports in Q1, however from Q2 onwards it will be countered via capex softening and provide a choppy consolidation range. I look for this to break in the second half of 2021 which will complete the macro driven pullback towards my main swing target at 6.50. From a technical lens it should be no surprise we are trading the same key 6.949x from before in USDCNH: While for those tracking the long term dollar devaluation we have covered the macro side in previous charts: Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, more 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming days and weeks. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Short
by ridethepig
RENMINBI AS A TRADE WAR PROXY & DOLLAR SHORTAGE(for macro nerds)USD/CNY: Two detailed bullet points ; Series on Currencies(feedback's always welcomed) - 7th of December 2019 First of all, this chart is simply a guide on how to analyse Dollar:Renminbi as a trade war proxy. As there are many economic variations and possible outcomes for 2020 at this point in time, I will not give recommendations for this chart. These are my subjective technicals and I will not analyse them, so don't follow them blindly. More importantly, let's take a look at some of the macro and fundamental perspectives. 1. 7 is a key level for the USD/CNY. Somehow the cross in August coincided with the inversion in yield curves, and the height of the trade war fears. Data backing up the cross at 7 is the decrease in Chinese holdings of treasuries (Ref #1), YoY down -4.27% . This indicates, that China is attempting to create a stronger dollar environment that corresponds with higher treasury yields, in order to alleviate some of the trade war tariff pains(higher yields=stronger $ ). Of course, treasuries are a global market, and China isn't able to completely influence the dollar At the stage with all the noise, it's very hard to exactly know what the trade war outcome will be, so I've given some of the scenarios on the chart. Furthermore, as FED cut rates, so did the PBoC (despite higher CPI , pork's here to blame) . This was their way of signalling that they're ready to devalue the yuan in case the trade war continues (Ref #2). The simplest way to read the Dollar/Yuan chart is with a dummy variable approach: If USDCNY<7= higher probability of a trade deal success and vice versa. 2. The DXY and USDSEK overlays combined with the 5-year lows in some of the emerging markets currencies(REF #5), indicating a global dollar shortage . These fears were somewhat dealt with as we had (Ref #3) three rate cuts this year and the start of QE:4, after the the repo market frenzy in August and September . Going into 2020, despite the FED being overly optimistic, I'm expecting that rates will further slide down to at least 1%. It all depends on how ambitious Trump is in terms of his trade war goals. The importance of USDSEK , simply is the fact that Sweden is such an open economy and the effect of these events mentioned above can serve as a way to cut all the trade news noise. A s expressed in the USDSEK chart, currently Swedish manufacturing numbers are well below 50, without the expected bounce for November(REF #6), despite the strong performance from equities . Along with other swedish economic data that's also performing poorly, without a doubt, this raises recession fears even further. To conclude this analysis on the Dollar:Renminbi, as mentioned in the intro- at this point there are many possible variations and many factors that could be analysed. I've already written a dozen posts on the trade war and the 2020 elections and it seems that it's impossible to give an easy and simple answer. One thing to expect for certain in 2020, is a rise in volatility . As the election cycle nears, there might be an increased pressure on Trump to get a deal done, so hopefully we'll get a more clear picture of the outcome of the trade war. Nevertheless, phase 1 is somewhat unimportant. Practically all the important negotiation points are pushed for phase 2 . Future may after all, seem interesting, but at the same time gloomy, and the show's just about to get started. This is it for Dollar:Yuan, feedback is always welcomed! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! References & Disclosure: 1. Chinese Treasury holdings: ticdata.treasury.gov 2. PBoC Prime rates: tradingeconomics.com 3. FED Rates super cycle: 4. Treasury Yields: 5. Latin(emerging) markets currency index: www.bloomberg.com 6. Swedish Manufacturing data: tradingeconomics.com Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
Could positive momentum on USD/CNY continue? Risk overall continues to ebb and flow on US-China trade uncertainty and looks somewhat asymmetric, tilted to the downside, based on our view that the HK Bill if passed through the House of Reps could seriously complicate trade talks and the signing of Phase 1. Stock markets are on the rise, and the risk-on atmosphere is weighing on USD, JPY and gold. Last week the US dollar made its the best performance in nearly 3 months against the Chinese Yuan. USD/CNY is likely to hold below 7.05/04 in the near-term with a possible decline likely to be limited around 7.00-6.95. On other side, the technical indicators are constructive, and there appears to be near-term potential rally to the 7.06/08 resistance area (the highs since October's end). The dollar moved above its 20-day SMA for the first time since mid-October. Also on the 4-hour chart this SMA coincide to the middle line of the Bollinger Badns and the price broke above it. It may offer support now. You should take in mind also China PMIs data at the end of the week. Another decline could seriously impinge on the soft landing narrative markets have been forming over the past few weeks and draw a market-negative reaction.
by ForexTrendline
Major Reversal In Play For CNY - A Must Track!!A good time to update the CNY chart with US away from their desks for thanksgiving. Both sides rolling back tariffs means that CNY has unlocked the gates for a retrace towards the key 76.4%. On the monetary side, updates from PBOC who continue sitting on the bid and are unlikely to change stance and keep CNY strong against the crosses, and as long as this remains the case the highs will be capped. Risks to my thesis come from another escalation in protectionism. For Chinese Equities the important and key 2793 is back in play again: Those following previously will remember trading the breakout to the topside, which is now clear was the final exhaustion leg. A textbook one to track for those wanting to dig deeper: For the technicals we are tracking a similar leg in nature to the sell-off in 2017, initial looking to target 6.9xx with extensions as low as 6.6xx and 6.4xx. While to the topside invalidation will come via a break of the highs. Best of luck all those on the CNY bid, jump into the comments with any questions and your views on CNY!
Short
by ridethepig
USDCNY - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about USDCNY and its current landscape. We can observe at this timeframe, a confluence of technical factors, that entail a setup which might drive this asset to a new movement. The details of our analysis are highlighted in the chart above. Want to know more about our trades and ideas? Join the Traders Heaven today. Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like. To have access to our exclusive contents, and see more of our work, join the Traders Heaven today! Link Below. Disclaimer: All content of Golden Dragon has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice
Long
by Igor-Silva
ORBEX: TOO Many "Insurance" CUTS! Where Risk Takes Us?In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #Fed's rate cut and identify the main components leading to their decision. I also talk about their decision toolbox and wonder whether they should start looking at slowing inflation with a different eye? One that doesn't look at trade wars with such certainty. With Fed, BOC and now also BOJ out, we can't miss the opportunities appearing on #cadjpy and #usdcnh, can we? Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
USDCNY: New Long-term Pattern for risk seeking investors.The pair is currently pulling back after an annual high earlier this month with 1D already having turned neutral (RSI = 52.349, MACD = 0.019, Highs/Lows = -0.0174). This appears though to be only a technical Higher High retrace after what has been a very strong bullish sequence since mid April. We have spotted the very same pattern in 2014/2015 when USDCNY made Higher High after Higher High within a two year Channel Up. This Channel emerged after a Double Top and currently we see the same candle action after a nearly May/ June Double Top. The MA200 is there to support the uptrend long term and the MA50 to provide Buy Entries. Under these circumstances currency traders can target 7.3000 on the medium term and 7.6000 - 7.8000 on the long term. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Long
by InvestingScope