Get started

USDCNY

BTC ROCKETS toward end of month b4 dumping into 2019 logic: nothing sensible. bitcoin futures (before was okcoin, now its bitmex ) actually control the price of spot market btc so if the manipulator [let's assume they are called MEGAWHHALE}, was going to dump BTC very low on spot market, MEGAWHHALE would of set massive shorts prior so to hit MEGAWHHALEs position(s), while at the same time, driving BTC low to accumulate and SET LONGS on the future market to PUMP spot market to hit long position. MEGAWHHALE controls spot markets that comprise BITMEX future index . soo, when all are fearful and selling, MEGAWHHALE is buying BTC/LTC/ETH and longing and preparing ASICS to mine 2019 the mass sit at a loss, only to see had they didnt sell theyd of maybe broke even or made profit, bringing them back into the market cause new money is dumb dead money, buying into another the top and holding a bag while MEGAWHHALE dumping & correlating with CORP interest/legislation "…because it's the last ride ever gonna That I'm ever gonna take at Astroworld world world world world world world..." Travis Scott - Watch ft. Lil Uzi Vert, Kanye West
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by bu11b3ar
5
The Bounce from Oversold Survives An Early TestAbove the 40 (November 2, 2018) – The Bounce from Oversold Survives An Early Test November 4, 2018 by Dr. Duru AT40 = 22.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ends an 11-day oversold period that followed a 4-day oversold period AT200 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.5 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary If you are a long-term passive index investor, you can return to your regularly scheduled programming. Just make sure to check back in if the S&P 500 (SPY) manages to break down below the low of this latest selling cycle (around 2600). For those interested in short-term trades, the drama continues apace. Friday was a day of spills and thrills as the headlines from another strong jobs report faded fast in the wake of the Trump administration broadcast conflicting messages about the prospects for an imminent trade deal with China. I was not aware of the headlines until after the close of trading; I am thankful I was not paying attention to that source of confusion and distraction. I was focused on executing my trading strategy for a market that I assume is moving away from oversold conditions and facing down its next challenges at 200-day moving averages (DMAs). AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, closed at 22.0%, a slight gain over the previous day. AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, closed at 31.6%, essentially flat with the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPY) gapped up but sold off all the way below the intraday lows of the previous two trading days before bouncing back. Although the index netted a 0.6% loss, I call the day overall a small victory. {The S&P 500 (SPY) almost challenged its now declining 200DMA resistance. The 0.6% loss was not enough to drop the stock market back into oversold territory.} The NASDAQ and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) behaved like the S&P 500. Most importantly, QQQ directly challenged its 200DMA resistance and got rejected. This is the second day in a row with QQQ tussling with this critical trendline. {The NASDAQ lost 1.0% as its downtrending 20DMA held as resistance.} {The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 1.6% and also lost its battle with 200DMA resistance.} The volatility index, the VIX, delivered another small victory. The VIX made a fractional gain after gapping down and then soaring past the previous day’s intraday high. It closed at 19.5 and remained below the 20 “elevated” level. As I wrote earlier, I expect volatility to implode after the election with no expectation for the outcomes. My put options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) teased me by going into the green soon after the open only to close the day back into red territory. {The volatility index, the VIX, gained 0.9% but stayed below the 20 level which is the threshold to "elevated" levels.} The intraday volatility on the day allowed me to flip call options on SPY. My core index play remains Shares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) call options and now for a longer stretch shares of ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO). IWM out-performed the market with a 0.3% gain. Several hedges expired harmless last week. Looking back, I wish I was a little more aggressive in closing out some of them. Next week’s hedges are mainly the long side of calendar put spreads whose short sides expired harmless this week. I am not interested in adding fresh hedges and will remain aggressive on the long side (mainly for swing trades). I am particularly interested in accumulating shares and calls on companies that survived their earnings with gains with a preference for stocks trading above their 200DMAs. Swingtradebot is a great tool for scanning for such stocks. I will also do my best to post some ideas here.
SP:SPXLong
by drduru
Some Insight on the Trade War with ChinaHad some Trump Trade Politics come out this week about ‘eminent progress,’ being made with China on trade just before the November Elections. This was denied by all sorts of Washington insiders, but begs the question, when will we see some sort of resolution on trade with China? I think it would be great for China to evolve from being a Globalist/Corporatist New World Order TOOL to switching to a stance of Integrity and Honor, dealing fairly with their trade partners, improving the standard of living in China, and forsaking the evils of Mercantilism. Literally Everybody, except the NWO, would be better off if they did this, but that would represent a cultural change for China, switching from their own insular little world, and taking advantage of those around them, to standing as a contributing member on the larger world stage. Fundamentally what do we know? We know Xi and Trump are meeting in December, and that a quarter trillion dollars’ worth of trade is going from 10% to 25% in January. We also know Trump is going to slap tariffs on the rest of China’s exports at some point due to lack of progress. Technically, looking at the Long-Term picture, the USDCNY is in the C Wave of a rising Running Flat, making a measured move that would take prices up in the 7.15 to 7.20 range. We also know that this move would complete an even higher degree B wave. In Elliott Wave flat corrections there is often a time relationship between the corrective waves. If the B and C wave as shown are added together, it would be close in the length of time to the A wave.
Long
by Cincinnatuus
USDCNY Bear Divergence on the WeeklyThis idea is to showcase the same strategy we are planning on the daily on USDCNY. This is the same game plan as our daily idea on USDCNY. If we took this trade the strategy would tell us to place our stop above the high when the divergence is formed. Our profit target would be placed at 50% of the entire divergence move or 100% targeting the low of the first high that created the divergence. If the daily plays out using the same strategy as the weekly your target will be achieved. If the weekly plays out a bear divergence as it did here then our daily trade will get stopped out and we should look for another weekly divergence to enter using the same strategy.
Short
by DejaBrew
Chinese yuan is heading lower.US-China tariff war is killing China as it is the factory of the world. Look around you, how many things says 'made in china' on it? What does that mean? It means obviously China's economy is heavily relying on exports. Like what's been written on zerohedge here. 'In this context, a Sino-American trade war is not only most unwelcome but also untimely. In July, the U.S. implemented a new 25% tariff on $50 billion of imports from China. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate from 10% to 25% on a further $200 billion of imports from China if the latter retaliated (which it did), and even subject all $500 billion or so of annual imports to tariffs. Beijing's riposte was to threaten variable tariffs on an additional $60 billion of imports from the U.S. Since China only imports about $150 billion of goods from the U.S., the scope for its own tit-for-tat tariffs is almost exhausted. If it wants to continue hitting back at the U.S., it will have to resort to some combination of currency depreciation and the use of its extensive system of regulations to target U.S. products and companies doing business in China. As far as depreciating the yuan is concerned, the Chinese authorities are moving into dangerous territory.' Source : www.zerohedge.com 8% of depreciation is nothing, more is about to come. ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Long
by JoE
USDCNH - OVERDONE PARABOLIC This is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD 0.01% peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold 0.77% , copper -2.43% , and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016. Comment: For a full understanding of things - read the article below. www.alhambrapartners.com
Short
by harmonay
1
China's dollar funding problem & why their currency is devaluingThis is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold, copper, and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016.
by GTStockmaster