USDCNY
"The Big Short" - from the Movie 2016 Oscar Union reward Short Renminbi for last leg ( the last meal) Stupid is paying the price again and again.
Among those central banks, PBOC is the worst one. They're too old to realize the turning of the culture influence and the huge inflation will be there in the future. This is called NO "wen hua".
I have never shorted Renminbi before but NOT this time.
This is a clearly signal, BTW.
$BTC testing highs and why USDCNH mattersBitcoin highly correlates with Dollar pair volatility these days, these are signs the market has matured a lot. Which makes sense since the CFTC considers it a commodity these days as more CFTC approved derivatives are on the way. US largest trading partner is China, any market correlation done on any asset if you ask me starts with capital flow from those areas, Europe is a close second which is why you're seeing great coordination between central banks in these economies.
I believe the breakout into ATH's on Bitcoin will go together with the continuation of the USD bull market. China is hugely Dollar hedged which is why PBoC will simply keep fixing CNY down to benefit off this.
USDCNY Long Entry Opportunity at PullbackIn my opinion this is a very good opportunity for a long entry once we exceed the high of February 8. I also showed some major support levels below for future reference. Don't listen to Kyle.
CHINESE YUAN STRENGTH??USDCNH looks very bearish in my opinion. We had a serious sell-off at the 6.986 handle, and I think we are due bearish continuation. This is a daily chart, so this is a longterm trade.
For those that follow bitcoin, it would be very interesting if we saw YUAN strength and BITCOIN weakness at the same time. :)
Quick short - Easy profitsThe chart speaks for itself. Momentum won't hold. RSI very oversold. I expect a drop so long again at 6888 (China's magic number). Breakout at 8000 in about three weeks to retest all time highs. PATIENCE!
Dollar Rally in anticipation of Feb. Fed meeting. The Dollar is not regressing upward and making some of its losses in anticipation of Yellen reiterating the policies of a hawkish fed.
Though the dollar is fundamentally strong, and for good reasons, there is a conflict in the wishes of the White House vs. The Federal Reserve.
There will most likely be more downward pressure afterward as it over-extends.
HP
A proper handle is needed to unleash the Green DragonContinuing with the downwards trend after the PBoC market intervention on the Chinese exchanges at the beginning of the month and followed by the elimination of the no-fee policy by the three major exchanges in China, I think bitcoin will continue to go down to around 4750 CNY considering it's bullish tendency is at pause. Bears are in control again but not for long. We need to create a proper handle for the massive cup we had for 3 years, 1 month and 18 days. A proper handle won't be ready within one month. I expect Bitcoin to complete it's first H&S (red) towards the end of January and then dump even more, which would create the second H&S (green) to bring bulls back in control and resume the uptrend.
I expect this new uptrend to take us back to January's ATH around the middle of march (see chart) and then in the day of the spring equinox, the green dragon will be unleashed to take us to a new ATH, this time, around 13000 CNY or about 2000 USD at the time considering Trump's coming USD devaluation and China's continuing CNY devaluation in US-China's upcoming declared trade war.
In conclusion, I remain long term bullish, short term bearish until reaching 4750 CNY (750 USD) and expecting a major uptrend around the spring equinox driven by news. Very likely the proper regulation by the PBoC will be the expected Green Dragon trigger.
Of course, time will tell if this would work out this way or not, but have in mind that the handle will be much more consolidated and the uptrend much stronger if we touch the bottom a second time and make the handle three months long instead of just one.
More info about spring equinox in Chinese culture: earthsky.org
USDCNH: PBOC gave us a nice discount in BTC and USDCNHFollowing the PBOC's manipulation and the massive drop for two days, price is starting to slow down.
I think we will see a bottom here shortly. If we don't hit 6.7696 before Monday's close, we can anticipate a turn here.
After the week closes, we'll get more confirmation of the risks in BTC and USDCNH. It could take as long as 3 weeks to confirm upside is viable again, so let's keep close watch of this and don't miss the discount to enter the long side again.
I'll update this one as needed.
As a sidenote, it's interesting to see volatility increase in this pair, it tends to move very little compared to other FX dollar crosses. An increase in volatility and liquidity might make traders become interested in it, which would create more opportunities and potentially higher win rate signals with increased liquidity.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: Intraday viewBTCCNY's correction appears to have ended, at least for now. We need to determine if it'll hold here, or break lower before finally resuming the long term advance. I'll monitor price action to manage my position size accordingly.
I'm currently long, after trimming down to 20% exposure before the PBOC news fueled 37% decline, and added 60% gradually, over 3 days.
Keep an eye on RgMov and volume and ATR here, for now, things are quiet, but this won't last. I expect to see a retest of 7498.90 in the short term, but what happens after that is yet to be seen, so, I'll look to reduce my long exposure back to 20% once we hit this target, or at least place a trailing stop loss, to reduce risk on part of my position. Remember to always hold 15-30% that you never sell, spot, no leverage, and no stop loss.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
"A Brave New World" an ideal from Civilization V More trading less showing in 2017. 1Hr/4Hr trading are using EMA system from FXCM desktop and learning swing trading "Fractal Quad Components" pine program original source from Pythagoras.
BTCCNY: Long term uptrend en routeThis is what the long term picture looks like for Bitcoin right now. We have now hit the Range Expansion validation target, which confirms that bullish momentum is intact, increasing our confidence in the forecast on chart. There are two targets, one with a high probability of being attained, of more than 60%, and one with lower probability, but still more than 50% chance, and a high probability reversal level on both cases. Once we hit the targets on chart, we could see price stall, or reverse back down to 2955.01 as a worst case scenario. We will be able to determine which will happen, once we reach those levels. If we see price stall, then bullish continuation is more probable, and with detailed multi timeframe analysis, we will be able to add to longs safely on each short term and intermediate term setup that the trend might give us.
Don't pass on these low risk opportunities I present to you.
I have been covering this extensively, so that people can see how well the trading methodology I learned from my mentor, Tim West, works in Bitcoin. I won't necessarily cover it in such detail in the future, this will probably be my last chart for the year. Next year, I might post updates to it, but not post so many trade setups for my followers. If you're interested in receiving all my trade ideas, contact me for access to my trading signals or private tuition course.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: Weekly updateI'm envisioning a rapid acceleration in BTC as we ramp up over the all time high. Many have been awaiting this fo ages, most haven't believed the rally to date, and still don't, I'd assume most think it'll make some kind of double top and drop, judging by the amount of top pickers getting stopped.
What is the current concensus? We have some whackos showing up and calling way higher prices again, but I'm not too worried since we have a legit trend this time, and solid price action for now.
I'll hold my long term position and will be ready to add to longs if we get a viable short term or intermediate term trend continuation setup. My signals clients will receive the alerts first hand, and all the updates for this and Ethereum. I'll post updates and new charts here, but I won't make such a detailed coverage as last year, where I pretty much gave a lot of stuff away. If anyone has been following me, they should have made a considerable amount of money with Bitcoin.
If you did, leave your comments below, I'd be glad to hear what everyone thinks now too, since we're in almost uncharted waters!
Happy new year!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCNY: The trend that keeps on givingI'd like to bring your attention to the $USDCNY monthly chart here. If we examine previous levels of support and resistance, and analyze price action using Tim West's methods, we could conclude that the uptrend in this pair, and logically, the one in Bitcoin, has still ample upside in its future.
It would be logical to observe 19% more upside in $USDCNY, and 760% more in $BTCCNY, if we maintain the current uptrend speed, which is yet to be seen. For now, we can look to fade short term and intermediate term selloffs in these instruments, with considerable comfort, and a rather high win rate.
My preference is to hold bitcoin positions, but we can speculate on both instruments, and also in smaller timeframes.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC Yuan correlationThe mechanic seems something like this:
1) Yuan is loosing buying power
2) Chinese buy all BTC that they can pushing up BTC/CNY
3) When BTC/CNY is too high they are buying dollars to buy BTC pushing up also BTC/USD
AUDUSD: Huge breakout, similar to copper and iron oreWe have a potential breakout of considerable scale in the Aussie dollar chart. I'd highly reccomend entering longs if not in, you can risk either 3 times the daily ATR for the long term, or use Friday's low as your stop, more aggressively.
The target is the 0.8350 handle, to be confirmed after the bi-weekly time at mode signal on chart confirms. For now, it's not yet confirmed, but highly likely, so we can get in early on. I'm adding a shorter term entry here, on a break of Friday's high, with stops under Friday's low, to complement my longer term position in this pair.
Check out my copper forecast in the related ideas, as well as the oil an commodity index charts. We're in the brink of a massive move, that if confirmed, can be ridiculously profitable for all of us if it pans out like I expect it to. This also ties nicely with China's inclusion in the SDR basket today, OPEC's deal, fears of Deutsche Bank's failure dissipated, and Australia's fundamentals overall.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCNH: Potential long term topWith oil rallying, and China soon to be accepted by the IMF, to include the Yuan in the SDR currency basket, the technicals in this chart suddenly look very good to me.
You could go short here, with stops above yesterday's high to begin with. The currencies not affected by today's fear spike due to Deutsche Bank's shock were: the Euro (surprisingly!), XAU, XAG, CHF, CNH, so, we know these are relatively stronger (same as oil and other commodities).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
